No, it wasn’t a great day. That was never in the cards as we learned last week the leader of Hamas was going to bail on the ceremonial signing of the cease fire agreement. I guess we should have expected Netanyahu would find an excuse to bail in a tit-for-tat move. Still, enough conditions of the verbal agreement reached last week led to the 20 remaining Israeli hostages still alive, and far more Palestinian prisoners being swapped. Sadly, of what’s believe to be 28 people killed during the Hamas terrorist attack only four of the bodies were handed over to Israel.
Still, the verbal cease fire agreement held up well enough that some good things happened. That included Trump, after a long (over an hour) rambling address to the Israeli Knesset flew to Egypt for the formal signing of the cease fire and a summit with twenty or so leaders in the region. As for his speech to the Knesset which was interrupted by a couple of members most in the room had to be wondering, like non MAGA Americans why the hell the people in their country like Trump so much! That’s a whole different topic.
For the moment let’s take stock of what did and did NOT happen. For a good overview you can check out this article from the Associated Press. It’s an easy read that lays things out. First I’d like to point out my own repeated use of the words “cease fire.” Trump and the GOP will shout to the rooftops an epic PEACE DEAL has been reached but it’s nothing of the sort. We are a long ways from any peace deal, much less one that will hold up. I’ll get to that later. However a cease fire is quite a bit more than nothing, and as I said hostages and prisoners are now back with their families. And a small number of those who lost loved ones can bury their dead and fully begin the grieving process.
That’s what makes it a good day, at least to me. Frankly, from the moment I learned Hamas’ leader was going to blow off the signing of the cease fire I worried that since the hostage/prisoner exchange wouldn’t happen until today the whole thing could fall apart. However it held long enough for at least that much to happen. The next thing will be allowing literally tons of aid, from food and potable water to medical supplies and equipment into Gaza. And allowing people to return to what’s left of the places they lived before the IDF turned so much of the Gaza Strip into what you see in the title photo.
Israel has promised before to allow truckloads of aid into Gaza only to hold it up. Their claim was that it wasn’t humanitarian aid but weapons no matter what international organization trying to help out said to the contrary. So, as this week progresses keep an eye out for what happens (or not) on this matter. The same will be true of allowing in construction companies to start clearing the rubble so that rebuilding can begin. Israel can find any number of excuses to say said companies are using it as a cover to smuggle in new weapons for Hamas, mixing guns, bullets and explosives into materials needed to rebuild. One other thing, and it will be tragic. In all that rubble there will be bodies of people who died in attacks. Maybe numbering in the thousands.
That’s going to inflame tensions. All it takes is one person fashioning (or being given by Hamas) a bomb to strap to their chest to get the violence started again. Same with IDF forces who had hoped to totally clear Gaza of any Palestinian, one way or another. Like we so often see with American cops a single “I was in fear for my life” shooting from a solider in the IDF could start a new round of violence. My point is that we’ve been here before. High hopes that a peace deal could be worked out or even an actual agreed upon framework that was ready for implementation fell apart. Hope is a good thing, as as “Andy” says in The Shawshank Redemption maybe the best of things.
I believe that. I also know history and there’s an ugly reality to longstanding conflicts. There are people who are important ONLY because of said conflicts. Resolve it and they are at best no longer important. Worse (for them) thy might find themselves in deep trouble with the people who suffered for so long during their tenure as leaders on one side or the other. So they blow up (sometimes literally) the whole peace deal. We’ve sure as hell seen that happen in the middle east and Israel in particular multiple times during my lifetime. That’s why I’m hopeful but far from optimistic.
The big issue out there is the one Bibi and the Likuds simply won’t tolerate – a two state solution that grants the Palestinians meaningful territory and control, especially in the West Bank. Let me remind you that was the deal Israel made when it was first recognized by the U.N. almost seven decades ago. Provide land in the West Bank for a Palestinian homeland. From the beginning Israel has more often than not has had leaders who’ve done everything they can to weasel out of it. Here, Netanyahu and his government are already making noises about resisting anything that could lead to any Palestinian State in the West Bank. That’s going to make even negotiating, much less reaching an agreement on Phase II of a long-term peace plan (the cease first is Phase I) next to impossible.
The only chance I see is that the cease fire holds for a while. If it does Israelis who might like Trump but can’t stand Netanyahu will force him, and his Party out of power. A case could already be made that Bibi looked the other way, and even helped bring about the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack by hollowing out the IDF troops at the military base close to where the attack on the music festival happened. He’d sent a big chunk of them to the West Bank and there weren’t nearly enough to respond when the attack happened!
Was it a ‘Wag the Dog’ thing? With time, assuming the cease fire holds I believe an awful lot of Israelis will be asking that question. That gives Bibi reason to start some sh*t so he can remain in power. A ‘Don’t switch leaders in the middle of a war’ type thing which is the only reason he’s still P.M. now. Yes, I believe he is that cold-blooded and ruthless. Like Trump he wants the powers of a dictator and like Trump wants to “purify” his country. Rid it of any and all Palestinians and other Arabs and/or Muslims. His own form of ethnic cleansing. So much for “Never Again.” Netanyahu doesn’t care he’s cost his country any moral authority it once had in the world. He will do ANYTHING to stay in Israel (who will never let him be extradited to The Hague for a war crimes trial) and out of prison for his corruption.
My point is that it’s worth noting and even feeling good that we saw some positive things happen today. However it’s just a single day and it will take years of them strung together to create not just a peace deal but a lasting peace. That did NOT happen today. Today wasn’t the end. Or even the end of the beginning. It was just one good day. So be glad about it but keep it in perspective.
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“A case could already be made that Bibi looked the other way, and even helped bring about the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack by hollowing out the IDF troops at the military base close to where the attack on the music festival happened. He’d sent a big chunk of them to the West Bank and there weren’t nearly enough to respond when the attack happened!”
“COULD?” Bibi freaking FUNDED HAMAS as a ploy to continue driving a wedge between HAMAS’s control of Gaza and FATAH’s control of the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority (the government nominally in control of the State of Palestine) has been split between the two organizations, which are as hostile towards each other as, well, MAGA and non-MAGA GOPers.
If I’m not mistaken, all the moneys that Arab governments send (or have sent) to the Palestinians to help keep their government (such as it is) funded are required to go through Israel for distribution and Bibi has made sure that, well, funding has not been equally shared (in some cases, he’s held up funds to both sides at times as a “tool” to control both sides or to play both sides against the other).
Absolutely spot on. My thoughts yesterday were that this was T’s finest moment to bask. It’s all downhill from then. Let’s face it, Israel has pretty well total control of their Gaza border and a good bit of Gaza. Don’t even mention the West Bank. It certainly is a CEASE FIRE and they broke the last one in January. Today we hear they are already squeezing the aid convoys. Is the ink even dry on the heads of agreement. Heads of. So much detail to be agreed and acted upon. So, not a peace deal but a great TV moment in the sun.
there was also an idf officer who had intelligence on the impending attack but she was ignored.