We’ve long known there was a hard-core base of MAGAs who for whatever reason will support him no matter what. However being less than a third of the conservative/GOP base they aren’t enough to win general elections. That’s why Evangelical’s (almost all white ones) has been so crucial to Trump (and the GOP overall) in his three elections. Yes, some Evangelicals are also pure MAGA but a surprising number have been “only” MAGA-ish. So I’m not surprised that Trump’s dropping approval ratings have led to less Evangelical support. What’s surprised me is how much it’s dropped in the past year.
Trump’s Evangelical base might be ‘cracking’, at least if reporting from Newsweek is accurate. This is a crucial voting bloc for Trump and therefore the entire GOP. Whether they like it or not every GOPer on the ballot has the Trump Anchor hanging around their neck so they need Evangelical support, especially coming out to vote or more of them will lose in November than is already projected. Keep in mind that in 2016 Trump carried 80 percent of the Evangelical vote. In 2020 it dipped a bit (regardless of his beliefs even these goobers knew Joe Biden was a good and decent man) to 76 percent, then (incredibly until you factor in sexism and racism – which explains it) to 82 percent in 2024. Well, it isn’t 2024 with Trump running against not just a woman but a black one. Hell it’s not even 2025 and my how things have changed:
Trump’s approval rating among evangelical voters fell to 52 percent in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed 4,531 adults nationwide from June 3-8, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. That marks a downward trajectory from August 2025, when his approval rating among evangelical Americans was 61 percent, according to the poll.
That’s a NINE point drop in support after Trump had already lost plenty with this group. (I’ll get to that) I call that ouch, even though Trump remains (for now) in positive territory with Evangelicals, if only barely. And don’t forget that 82% of the Evangelical vote in 2024. I’d have to check but in the early months of 2025 and his second term Trump was polling around 80 percent with this group. Those days are gone! Barely above 60 ten months ago means in less than a year Trump dropped twenty freaking points with Evangelicals. Worse for him (and the GOP) he’s still bleeding and the two issues that seem to be at the heart of it aren’t going to change and make things better.
Also, if you paid attention this is no fly-by-night outlier polling outfit. Reuters/Ispos is highly rated and usually gets it right. The size of their sample is larger than normal which reinforces the notion they have good data. As I said earlier there are two issues that seem to account for Trump’s continued drop in support this year. Let’s start with the first one as Newsweek points out while the number is accurate we shouldn’t assume why:
Fifty-four percent of evangelical respondents said they do not believe Trump’s use of the military in Iran is “in line with their understanding of Christianity,” compared to 41 percent who said it was.
Jacob Neiheisel, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek that the question, as posed, “can admit of multiple interpretations” and that some evangelicals may want to see more aggressive involvement.
“It is possible that a non-trivial number of evangelicals want the administration to prosecute the war in Iran even more aggressively,” he said.
Thinking about it perhaps Neiheisel is on to something. Whether it’s MAGA goobers, including and especially the ‘Meal Team Six’ fatasses who dress up in tactical gear or more subdued ‘gods, guns and no gays’ MAGAs it makes sense a portion of them are upset Trump hasn’t sent ground troops into Iran. LARGE numbers of ground troops I must add. How many think that way is something pollsters should take a look at. However Trump’s own internal polling probably has done so and my bet is that while they might find lots of people might like it in theory, they have enough working brain cells left to know how disastrous it would be. Meanwhile they are paying through the nose at the gas pump (and for diesel on the farm) and at the grocery store. All because of the war which they, like us have good reason to believe Trump should never have gotten us in to.
The other main issue for Evangelicals is intriguing. Surprisingly so. Perhaps somewhere before they went off the deep end into the Trump cesspool they recall reading their bibles and what Jesus actually taught. Yep, it turns out they don’t like Trump’s immigration policies. I know. I’m stunned by that too but the numbers are what they are. After noting that Black Evangelicals have quite different attitudes on various issues Newsweek says this:
Additionally, 51 percent said the administration’s hardline immigration approach was not in line with their religious values.
Wow, if only by a percentage point Trump is underwater with this group over the awful and too often inhumane treatment of immigrants he and the rest of the GOP have a bigass land mine sitting out there between now and the midterms. Stephen Miller still gets too much time with Trump and Markwayne Mullin’s already ham-handed approach will almost certainly become more so. AND at a time when the GOP desperately needs Trump to lighten the hell up. At least until after November!
I’m not about to say the scales have fallen from Evangelical’s eyes but they clearly have their doubts about Trump. As the linked article notes why this is such a concern in the GOP is that too many of these people won’t vote. As I so often say while I’d love for a big chunk of these folks to become normal and rational again, and weigh multiple issues objectively. In the privacy of a voting booth they’d often find themselves voting for Democrats. However while I dream crazy dreams (i.e. the Cubs getting to the World Series TWICE in my lifetime, or better still Trump dying in prison years from now, alone and so dejected he just gives up) I still have both feet in the real world.
What we CAN reasonably hope is that ten, or even as little as five percent of Evangelicals either vote third Party or don’t vote at all. It’s not quite as good as them voting for Democrats but it’s enough to make the difference in a LOT of House and even some Senate races. IF things play out this way I’m sure post election polls will dig into this. If these numbers hold, or (dare we hope) get worse for Trump and the GOP enough GOPers with plenty of cash in their PACS will do their own polling. If it confirms what the public polling says it means there won’t be mere cracks in the Evangelical base but chasms.
AND between it and the GOP. Now I’ll fantasize: by this time next year the finger pointing and recriminations will rip apart the unholy marriage of the religious right and the GOP. Barry Goldwater predicted exactly what would happen if what he deemed the religious crazies got control of the Party and it’s been worse than he (and the rest of us) feared. The ONLY reason so many Republicans in statehouses and Congress have put up with the crazy Evangelicals is they could be counted on when it came time to vote. I suspect a LOT of them are sick and tired of meeting these zealot’s purity tests and other demands.
Yes, it’s a crazy dream but I can’t help myself. Especially seeing this new polling data.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
They’ve discovered their Bible has these things called ‘The Ten Commandments’ and have now realized we’re all supposed to follow them.
And Dimwit Donny doesn’t.
Specially with that one about lying.