Let’s be clear right upfront. Republicans control every branch of government. The White House, BOTH chambers of Congress and since it’s now a political arm of the GOP (or at least Trump) the Supreme Court. They don’t need one single vote from a Democrat to end this shutdown. However it continues because the GOP is DESPERATE to rope Democrats into the mess they created by passing that Big, Buttscrewing (of most Americans) Bill this summer. The House passed a CR to keep the government open until next month (when we’d get to do this all over again) and it’s been sitting in the Senate which due to Senate Rules can’t pass without a chunk of Democratic votes to invoke cloture.
However John Thune could, especially if he were to get Trump involved end the shutdown. Today. Doing so would require using the so-called Nuclear Option to get around the typical (not so much anymore) Senate rule about requiring 60 votes to end debate on a given matter and move to a simple majority vote. The Nuclear Option is a wonky type thing which if you want to dig into the details you can via Wikipedia. If you’re not into nitty-gritty wonky details all you need to know is that the infamous filibuster/60 votes to invoke cloture rule has a workaround that allows the Party in power to pass any damn thing it pleases via a majority vote. Republicans hold a majority in the Senate. So, as I’ve said by dusting off and using the nuclear option the GOP could end the shutdown by the end of today.
However Thune doesn’t want to use it so the government shutdown continues. Right now it seems clear it will last until at least next week, if not longer. Some federal workers already haven’t been paid, and on the 15th when the military doesn’t get paid things will really hit the fan. House Speaker Mike Johnson had sent his members home to avoid a vote on releasing Epstein. HE is using that as cover to keep them out of town, now claiming the House has done its part to avoid a shutdown by passing a “clean” Continuing resolution. As for the Senate, Democrats are mostly holding firm because allowing a CR will have even worse effects on American’s health care (skyrocketing premiums, people losing coverage and hospital closings due to the BBB’s Medicaid/Medicare cuts that kick in with the new fiscal year that began Oct. 1) even worse. Insurers and rural/small town hospitals and even doctors have already made painful changes knowing what was coming.
The GOP of course is blaming the shutdown on Democrats. Their claim is that the Democrats are holding the country hostage, and that if only they’d agree to the CR (which would allow that BBB stuff to kick in) they are ‘willing to negotiate’ on extending subsidies for Obamacare/ACA premiums, take a look at rolling back some of those Medicaid cuts etc. Democrats have called bullshit on that LIE and rightly so. Since before the BBB passed healthcare was a huge, key issue. For all the talk, Trump’s BBB was effectively yet ANOTHER big tax cut skewed heavily towards the very wealthiest. To pay for it they went after programs, healthcare in particular that serve most Americans, those masses (most of us) who are NOT rich.
Trump and the GOP are desperate to corral at least some Democratic votes, even if only for a procedural matter to get things moving so the BBB can kick in. THEN they could make a weak-assed claim of “bipartisanship.” Democrats have dug in and said: “NO. If you insist on these cuts to services most Americans depend on to pay for your tax cuts to your billionaire friends the by god YOU will own it. With only Republican votes. Good luck next year in the midterms when even in deeply red states people are howling mad. Haven’t you paid ANY attention to what’s gone on at the handful of town halls in red America?”
Despite what’s reported in this Politico article about Thune’s explanation for not using the nuclear option is behind his refusal to do so. Oh, he can talk a good game and in part because there is some genuine concern from some in his caucus (to be fair in the past Democrats have raised the same concerns) about use of the nuclear option weakens the filibuster and could lead to its elimination. Meaning they are concerned about payback if the other Party takes over control of the Senate. So that’s the b.s. Thune is shoveling when talking to journalists he shut down the very notion of the nuclear option:
Thune, asked about the possibility, said Thursday he is opposed to changing the legislative filibuster and indicated that he had not gotten pressure from the White House to do so.
“There’s always a lot of swirl out there, as you know, from social media, et cetera, but no, I have not had that conversation,” Thune said when asked if the White House was advocating for the move.
The linked article details various people’s views and comments about why or why not Thune should go nuclear. So like I said he’s got plausible deniability on why he doesn’t want to go that route. However I don’t believe for one second there hasn’t been a least a little discussion with Trump/the WH about things maybe coming to that. However it increasingly looks like Democrats have chosen to stand, fight and die on Healthcare Hill and it looks like they are winning the battle of who will get the blame for the shutdown.
Trump painted himself and the GOP into a corner with the BBB. He wanted to crow about a tax cut, feeling secure that given his ‘salesmanship’ ability and a GOP that over decades has proven as reliable as trained lab rats at spouting the same talking points that he could convince average folks (and not just MAGAs) THEY were getting ‘bigly’ tax cuts themselves.
However, even MAGAs are starting to get restless with all this supply-side tax stuff wondering just when the hell it’s going to FINALLY trickle down to them! With the effects of the BBB becoming apparent next year this sentiment is going to merge with the anger about losing health care. Because they can’t afford Obamacare anymore. Or if they have other insurance THOSE premiums are going to rise beyond their ability to pay. Add in a whole slew of rural/small town (Mostly MAGA country) hospitals closing (and doctors moving away) and having to drive 40 or 50 miles to a hospital or even a doctor and it’s a toxic brew.
Trump and the GOP will as I said be DESPRATE to be able to claim their lot is “Bi-Partisan” in nature because a group of Democrats voted with them! Yep, by not standing up to Trump and passing his massive tax-cut-for-the-rich BBB Republicans on the Hill are faces with two choices of sh*t sandwich. One is to stick with what they’ve done and hope against all reason it won’t bite them in the ass in the midterms. They know in their hearts that despite an edge in the ongoing gerrymanding wars the House will be lost. However, despite what should be a solid chance for them to hold onto the Senate it too will be up for grabs. THAT surely is costing Majority Leader Thune a lot of sleep.
Sh*t sandwich number two will be just as difficult to choke down. The Senate could hammer out a new bill that preserves health care as we know it and massively cuts back on Trump’s tax cut. Most House GOPers would react with horror but two to three dozen of them are in districts where voting to basically ‘un-do’ the BBB gives them a fighting chance to hold their seats. Enough of them to at least allow the GOP to somehow maintain its tenuous hold on the House.
I have no sympathy for any Republican in DC. Trump forced them to eat a pile of nasty brown steaming excrement and they shat out a big pile of it. Now they are stuck in it like those poor creatures in the tar pits in Los Angeles. For now however when you hear some MAGA spout the talking point about Democrats are preventing the government from re-opening remind them of this fact: John Thune can use the nuclear option and end this shutdown anytime he chooses to do so. And he’s NOT doing it. Then remind them of the health care issue and how it’s DEMOCRATS that are fighting to protect American’s access for health care. And keep all those hospitals in already underserved rural/small-town America, MAGA country open.
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I had a thought on Thune’s reason for not wanting to “go nuclear” and it’s actually pretty well worth consideration: He can’t count on HIS OWN caucus voting to support the House resolution.
I’m sure Thune would love to get a bunch of Democrats so he can hold THEM wholly responsible for all the crap that happens to the middle class (we all know the GOP doesn’t care one iota about the actual poor–even those idiots who vote for GOPers against their own interests because “other” reasons). Once all the stuff really starts slamming the middle class, Thune will go in front of the cameras (which, for some reason, will never give a second to a single Democrat) and put ALL the blame on the Democrats–and the people most directly affected by all the GOP-forced budget issues will fall for it hook, line and sinker (since, as noted, the media won’t give a Democrat even 10 seconds of camera time and most of them will be tuned into Fox “News” and the other GOP/MAGA propaganda channels).
But *IF* Thune decides to go nuclear, he could only afford to let two of his caucus to avoid voting (or worse for Thune, vote AGAINST the House bill) and–while I’m not really optimistic on the odds–there could be at least 3 votes that Thune might lose (Murkowski, Collins and Tillis, with a chance of Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell being wild cards).
That’s an interesting thought. It’s certainly possible but I’m not sure more than one (if that) of the three you initially cite would defy Thune. Tillis one would think is out of f**ks to give since announcing his retirement but I’m too familiar with him (or more accuately his staff) since I live in the Raleigh, NC area and regularly contact my elected officials. He’s still a hard core conservative. Still, I had a bit on an ongoing back and forth with one of his staffers years back during another ‘cut Medicaid” time. It was regarding the Medicaid Waiver part of the program and given my work with DD adults I had expertise. So I think he’ll at least think about the impact but it’s a coin flip on whether he’d vote to restore health caee funding.
Collins? She’d do her “Deeply Concerned” routine complete with furrowed brow but unless shee too suddenly decides to retire (wonder what her internal polling is telling her about next year) as she’s usually done I suspect she’d cave. Murkowski? I don’t know WTF is going on with her anymore. I think the pressure has gotten to her and she’s off the rails. Complete wild card but she too has caved at the last minute when we thought she’d do the right thing so I wouldn’t place significant hope in flipping her although it’s a possibility.
As for the KY boys Rand Paul ia a deficit hawk and also a tax cut for rich folks guy. They have to rescind most or all of there tax cut if the Medicaid and other healthcare stuff like cutting ACA assistance was restored. I don’t see him going along with that. Yertle is interesting to think about. He was concerned about his legacy (at least with conservatives) when he chose to step aside. OTOH he can’t stand Trump. And this is all going to his his state HARD. He’s looking forward to a comfy retirement and being feted back there at UK and Louisville sporting events, Churchill Downs etc. and soaking up some love from adoring MAGAs who won’t be so adoring. Interestingly enough I think HE might decide, especially since he’s essentially a forgotten man in his Party now to screw over Trump. And Thune who as far as I can tell probably doesn’t give two shits about any guidance ole Mitch might have to offer.
Still, you might be onto something important that’s been overlooked by damned near everyone. Thanks for adding this to the conversation.