This is a good news, bad news kind of a scenario. The good news is that it is possible for the Democrats to retake both chambers of Congress in the fall. Bully for us. The bad news is that if the Democrats retake the Senate, they’ll have to deal with the likely defection of John Fetterman, which would nullify a narrow win. With Fetterman on board taking the Senate is even harder than it is already, so be prepared.Â
The Senate truly is in play. The list of seats Democrats have at least a 2-in-5 chance of winning includes: Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine.1
If Democrats ran that table and didn’t lose Georgia (or any other currently-held seat) then they’d wind up with 53 seats and it would be a political earthquake.
The bad news is that Democrats probably need to get at least 52 seats. Because if they only get to 51, they’re going to get schlonged by this guy: [John Fetterman]
First off: Is 53 D seats possible? Sure.
It is likely? Absolutely not. Texas and Iowa are super-reaches. Ohio is going to be exceptionally hard, even with an excellent candidate. In order to have even a chance at 52+, Dems have to win two of those three races.
Alaska, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan is the parlay from hell. Democrats could hit it. But . . . yikes.
Hitting 51 seats is, by comparison, much more achievable. The best bets, in descending order of probability, go something like this:
- Maine
- North Carolina
- Michigan
- Alaska
- Ohio
That’s a long row to hoe, and even if Dems got it done, they only end up with 51 seats.
What happens then?
John Fetterman has been sending every signal possible that he will be open to switching parties.
Oh yes. Fetterman is the wild card. He’s pretty much finished as a Democrat, with a minus 40 approval rating. So he either could become a Republican or an Independent caucusing with the Republicans, you parse through which one you think is the more likely result.
That means we need 52 seats, not just 51. If only dreams of Blue Texas and Talarico in the Senate can come true. But for those of you who have been following politics longer than five minutes, Blue Texas is the perennial dream that keeps getting dashed, even though we put up some incredible candidates.
Fetterman comes up for reelection in 2028. Perhaps it is possible that some survival instinct within him will cleave to the Democrats when they retake power. But be just as prepared for Fetterman to jump ship.
My theory is that Fetterman faked being a Dem in order to win and has ALWAYS been a Repug. That’s my theory and I am sticking to it.
Rumor has it, the wealthy right wingers support a trojan horse candidate to break up any possible dem majorities. Don’t know of it’s conspiracy theory or not, but it does sound like one of their dirty tricks.