This is a good news, bad news kind of a scenario. The good news is that it is possible for the Democrats to retake both chambers of Congress in the fall. Bully for us. The bad news is that if the Democrats retake the Senate, they’ll have to deal with the likely defection of John Fetterman, which would nullify a narrow win. With Fetterman on board taking the Senate is even harder than it is already, so be prepared.Â
The Senate truly is in play. The list of seats Democrats have at least a 2-in-5 chance of winning includes: Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine.1
If Democrats ran that table and didn’t lose Georgia (or any other currently-held seat) then they’d wind up with 53 seats and it would be a political earthquake.
The bad news is that Democrats probably need to get at least 52 seats. Because if they only get to 51, they’re going to get schlonged by this guy: [John Fetterman]
First off: Is 53 D seats possible? Sure.
It is likely? Absolutely not. Texas and Iowa are super-reaches. Ohio is going to be exceptionally hard, even with an excellent candidate. In order to have even a chance at 52+, Dems have to win two of those three races.
Alaska, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan is the parlay from hell. Democrats could hit it. But . . . yikes.
Hitting 51 seats is, by comparison, much more achievable. The best bets, in descending order of probability, go something like this:
- Maine
- North Carolina
- Michigan
- Alaska
- Ohio
That’s a long row to hoe, and even if Dems got it done, they only end up with 51 seats.
What happens then?
John Fetterman has been sending every signal possible that he will be open to switching parties.
Oh yes. Fetterman is the wild card. He’s pretty much finished as a Democrat, with a minus 40 approval rating. So he either could become a Republican or an Independent caucusing with the Republicans, you parse through which one you think is the more likely result.
That means we need 52 seats, not just 51. If only dreams of Blue Texas and Talarico in the Senate can come true. But for those of you who have been following politics longer than five minutes, Blue Texas is the perennial dream that keeps getting dashed, even though we put up some incredible candidates.
Fetterman comes up for reelection in 2028. Perhaps it is possible that some survival instinct within him will cleave to the Democrats when they retake power. But be just as prepared for Fetterman to jump ship.
My theory is that Fetterman faked being a Dem in order to win and has ALWAYS been a Repug. That’s my theory and I am sticking to it.
Rumor has it, the wealthy right wingers support a trojan horse candidate to break up any possible dem majorities. Don’t know of it’s conspiracy theory or not, but it does sound like one of their dirty tricks.
What does it say about the Republicans that the main D to R defectors are victims of brain trauma?
Fetterman (stroke)
RFK Jr (brain-worm)
Donald Trump (dementia), And yes Donald used to be a democrat back in the day.
BS to all of you. Stop answering like lemmings. Fetterman is NOT Manchin!!!! He is a TRUE democrat, not a crypto-fascist anti-semite like all the others. He did NOT leave the party, it left him as it moved hard and fast into the KKK (but against Jews) Party!!!!! For those of you who do not know the word “kapo” look it up. Bernie Sanders is today’s most lethal self-hating Jew, the first man to stand up and tell the SS “Hey, I will watch all your Jews for you because I’m your GOOD jew, the one who hates all the other Jews and would gladly kill them for you, my beloved Nazi-SS Overlords”. THAT is today’s Democratic party. Exactly the same as the Repubs – EXACTLY. Repubs hate black people – Dems hate Jews. Same exact thing. Dems will take the house this year and have a decent chance at the Senate. But don’t think the sun will shine every day. It is a party composed of slime-filth who have no backbone whatsoever EXCEPT FETTERMAN, who knows what he believes and won’t be bullied into becoming yet another Jew-Hater for the sake of the politics of the day!!!!!!!!! Since most of you don’t seem to have a solid bead on the past 2000 years of Jewish history, allow me to explain it to you in two sentences that seem unrelated but are in fact PRECISELY related: 1) what starts with the Jews NEVER, and I mean NEVER, ends with the Jews. And 2) Be careful what you wish for. We may be rid of Trump, but fear the hell out of a regime dedicated to the death of all Jews everywhere and the destruction of the one and only Jewish home country on earth. If you think Sanders-AOC leadership will be all roses, oh my god do you all have another thing coming. And if you think for one second Fetterman is your enemy, then you are ALL pathetically and tragically blind to the ONE guy trying to save the Democratic party from ITSELF!!!!!
AIPAC sends it’s seditious little trolls down here now. Maybe they’ll be less present when their Zionist right-wing criminal supporting funding is pulled.
Explain something to me: Why are pro-Jewish lobbyists being criticized as “trolls” or “traitors” but lobbyists from almost every other country on the planet get a pass? You think China has Australia’s best interests at heart, Con?
And I do not fully understand your point ” Zionist right-wing criminal supporting funding is pulled”. you’re missing a predicate or two. Please rewrite that sentence so I can respond to it. Thank you Con.
And by the way, far be it from me to suggest you are willingly keeping your eyes closed to Aussie reality for Jews, but does the name “Bondi Beach” mean anything to you? 15 dead Jews in just a few minutes? Lemme guess, “it’s just a handful of Jews, not really that significant” ? Ever heard the name Anthony Eden. I was in London in /72 and they were interviewing him on BBC. “Lord Avon, if OSI KNEW the trains were bringing Jews to Auschwitz and the other death camps by the tens and hundreds of thousands, why pray tell did you not order the British air force to bomb the lines and saves unknowable numbers of lives?” Answer: “Be realistic please. we had a war going on. We couldn’t very well take our eyes off the ball to save a handful of people” That was 54 years ago. I have NEVER forgotten the value non-Jews place on Jewish lives. Wanna know why AIPAC is down there? Two words: Anthony Albanese.