Ukraine Shows Signs Of What We Hoped For A Year Ago

While we have what some might call a political war going on in the U.S. the fact is real shooting wars are taking places elsewhere. What’s going on with Israel’s attempts to wipe out Hamas terrorists in Gaza it getting attention here because it’s become a political football. However a larger and more important war for not only our own but the world’s security has been going on in Ukraine for years now.  Here in the U.S. too many have gotten bored with it, even to the point where a gang of Republican’s outrageous attempts to cut off military aid crippled Ukraine’s ability to fight. Even gave Russia a slight advantage, or at least a realistic chance to attain it. However in the Ukraine/Russia war, as with our Presidential campaign a LOT can change in just a few weeks. Ukraine has mounted an offensive into Russia that’s a game changer.

If Putin was paranoid before he’s got to be off the charts scared of his own shadow these days. I almost used a title picture of him addressing some people with him probably a hundred feet away from him. You may have seen other photos, such as him having a chat with a couple of generals seated at the other end of an insanely long table.  If that was his mindset before, news that Ukraine has established control of several hundred square miles of Russian soil and could encircle and cut off a Russian nuclear plant has him freaking out. Pootie knows damn well there are people, with the ability but not yet the will to “retire” him. (By retire I mean with a 9mm bullet to the back of the head and him falling into an unmarked grave)

The title picture I did use is of something that actually happened. He stood there drawing a doodle on a whiteboard, which experts say shows signs his paranoia is getting to him. The meme quality of the image with the Towlie character from South Park getting high seems about right. However these days there’s no way in hell he’d allow the people who saw him drawing that doodle that close to him. Hell, they wouldn’t be in the same room!  The war is far from over, but it might wind up seeing real and meaningful negotiations to settle matters before the end of the year.

To learn more about why that’s the case this article from The Telegraph gives an overview of what’s suddenly taken place in the past couple of weeks or so.  I mentioned a year ago there was already an attitude of defeatism setting in about the ‘failure’ of the much hyped Ukrainian counter-offensive. I wrote here on Politizoom last year why the expectations, especially with the public and too many armchair warrior politicians were unrealistic. I won’t dive into writing what would be another long article about building defensive positions which Russia had the time and manpower to do.  Most of the cost was food and shelter (and picks and shovels) for the labor to dig those trenches.  Still, while it wasn’t apparent at the time Ukraine’s attacks, especially as they adapted and gave up the notion of a significant breakthrough ground down Russia more than was realized.

Had it not been for the GOP holding up weapons aid for so long we might have been seeing what’s going on a couple of months ago. At least we’re seeing it now and there are still a couple of months before operations have to start being curtailed because winter comes sooner and harsher over there. Kursk holds a special place in Russian history due to what happened in the area in WWII when Hitler attacked with hundreds of thousands of troops. If you know your WWII history it’s easy to understand why Russians call it the Great Patriotic War and so Kursk being the focus of another huge and unexpected battle gets Russian’s attention.

However, THIS time it’s not hundreds of thousands of troop and massive numbers of tanks, but a few thousand well-trained Ukrainians with only a handful of armored vehicles that have kicked Russia’s butt.  A forward airfield of Russia’s has been lost and if not by now then any day a key railway junction and line too. Ukraine also seized control of a major station that meters natural gas east through Ukraine and into Europe. I don’t see Ukraine trying to take over the nuclear plant BUT encircling it and only allowing in supplies for the workers to eat and remain comfortable as winter sets in is quite possible.  All Ukraine needs to do to render it useless to Russia is cut the power transmission lines leading away from the place.

As the author of the linked article notes it’s a stark and painful lesson Russia might learn, especially if we and other western countries give Ukraine free reign to exploit their tactical advantage:

But in the exquisite Ukrainian counter-manoeuvre in Kursk, southern Russia, history has come back to bite President Putin. On much the same ground in 1943, vast Soviet forces turned back the Nazi hordes in a battle rightly considered to be one of the turning points in the Second World War. But whereas once Kursk could be assured a special place in the pantheon of Russian pride, Ukraine’s current “tactical” operation there means it may now come to be remembered as a source of Russian humiliation. And if the West allows Kyiv to exploit its successes, it may prove to be the locus of another turning point in Russian history, too.

All this adds up to all kinds of trouble for Russia and ultimately Putin. His forces were concentrated behind all those fortifications further south to prevent a Ukrainian breakthrough that would cut off the ‘land bridge to Crimea.’ Sure, some but not enough halfway competent forces were supposed to be up in areas Russia had controlled in eastern Ukraine.  However while some might have been ‘blooded’ with some combat experience Russia long ago used up its best troops.  They been shoving conscripts with little or no training at all to the front.  When faced with a well-trained force executing a well thought out plan of attack they simply aren’t up to the task. And the locals aren’t, as we saw with Ukrainians grabbing whatever they could and fighting back!

This is a real problem for Putin. His Generals have to start shuffling units to deal with this threat which is a major military AND national pride blow.  That means there will be vulnerabilities in other places along the front lines. Ukraine now has a fully western trained army where from company grade officers down to the NCO levels people know how to assess situations and act effectively. And will have authority to exploit advantages. That kind of nimbleness simply isn’t and never has been part of Russian military doctrine, much less training and it’s not something they can comprehend, much less cope with.  The only real issue is how much leeway Ukraine will be granted by NATO and others. In other words, how FAR into Russia will they be able to attack and with what western weapons platforms?

In the meantime Russia/Putin is pushed back to the edge of the cliff.  They can see that their doctrine is outdated and that it doesn’t take anywhere near the troops and firepower commonly assumed would be needed to carve chunks out of their ‘Rodina.’ A lot of westerners are belatedly coming to that realization as well:

The Ukrainian troops operating inside Russian territory are not some rag-tag force, but an army that for the first time in this conflict has demonstrated effective combined arms manoeuvre, the “Western” way of fighting. With a small force of determined and evidently well-trained soldiers, and a small number of tanks, they routed a bunch of unwilling conscripts whose shouts and screams will have rattled the windows of the Kremlin, and are now being heard in the homes of the rank and file in Russia, who hitherto have been fed a diet of Putin’s military brilliance.

As with all major wars for all the talk about air power and now that means drones more than jet fighters and bombers and even attack helicopters the fact is it takes boots on the ground. Once upon a time I was a grunt in the Marine Corps. I don’t know if it’s still said but the common sentiment was that you can bomb the hell out of a place but it’s not yours until you send in the grunts to plant the flag.  In Kursk Russia is learning that it takes far fewer well-trained and equipped grunts than they ever imagined in their worst nightmares to do what hundreds of thousands of Hitler’s troops couldn’t – take and hold a key piece of Russian soil.

I’d be shocked if two things weren’t true but not yet apparent. If they don’t push too far into Russia, Ukraine will be able to support the current gains they’ve made and have forces ready and available. At the same time they will have OTHER forces that as with the Kursk region have been snuck up to Russian defenses that, as Russian units are re-deployed to Kursk mount successful offenses in newly weakened Russian positions!

As I said this war is likely far from over. However, if Ukraine can grab more Russian territory and cut off more Russian forces in the south guess what? They can go to a peace conference and negotiate from a stronger position than Russia will have.  At the very least the two sides would be on even terms and while Ukraine deserves priority in rebuilding that shattered country if a scaled down Marshall Plan were to include helping Russia recover under certain conditions (not being able to rebuild the kind of military machine they once had but enough capability to deter China) including replacing Putin and what few allies he has that he (sort of) trusts who knows?  What might have been another ‘Winter of Discontent’ in that war torn part of the world might see itself ‘Made Glorious’ by an ‘Early Spring.’

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