Even before President Biden chose to step aside, and then endorse VP Harris some important questions were floating out there. Even speculated upon by journalists/pundits. They do so love to speculate instead of actual you know, investigating and reporting facts. But let’s keep out eye on the ball here. The big questions were ‘If Biden drops out what happens with his delegates?’ The second was ‘Who would replace him?’ The third was ‘How will that choice be made and who gets to make it?’ That third one presents additional questions of timing and process. Due to the lateness of the Democratic Convention this year which comes after a deadline in two state including Ohio, a “virtual roll call” was scheduled for later this month to officially name President Biden the nominee. That’s going to be important and I’ll address it later but let’s cover those first three questions.
What Happens with “Biden” Delegates? It’s actually not complicated at all in the Democratic Party. As this NBC Article notes even “pledged” delegates actually bound by rules to vote for the candidate they’re pledged to even on the first ballot! From the linked article:
The only command to delegates under current convention rules is to “in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” After a primary process in which Biden won virtually every contest and faced no true opposition, those “sentiments” were easy to predict.
In fact during the first week in July when all the drama was going on the President said during a campaign speech delegates were free to vote their conscience. If they wanted to vote for someone else they could. (He then leaned to the mic and with a smile whispered “They won’t!”) Delegates are chosen by their State Party honchos because they can be counted on to do what the voters say they should do. But the President was correct, they don’t have to, and that’s been the case for a long time:
That flexibility has been the case since the 1984 convention, Democratic rules expert Elaine Kamarck, who is also the director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution, said on NBC News’ “The Chuck Toddcast” last week.
Let’s consider something else. Presidents running for re-election have swapped out their VP for a new one. (Thank you FDR for giving us Harry Truman!) For decades however ANY talk, now matter how small the circle involved would get leaked. Journalists would run rampant with OMFG! President such-and-such wants to dump VP so-and-so! We can be sure, as could voters that Democratic primary voters voted for Biden/Harris. They were down with her being his VP and with all the talk even then about his age, it probably actually mattered at least some. One can debate the point but in part they voted for Harris too. However the plain fact is, if after dropping out the President didn’t endorse his VP or anyone else delegates could vote for whomever they damn well pleased. Including President Joe Biden. So, that takes care of the answer to question 1. The delegates are free to vote for who they want even on the first ballot and were all along. So let’s move on.
Who would replace President Biden if he dropped out? (Which he did yesterday) During that long, agonizing and to me disgusting few weeks of not just elected Democrats but journalists/pundits taking whacks at the President with meat cleavers the talking head class at least floated possible names. VP Harris I might add didn’t get much mention. However, elected Democrats calling on the President to step down, big-money donors and celebrity asshats like George Clooney would even speculate on who should take over, much less name a name. And not one single person on the “It could be them” list stepped up and said they should be “The One.” That had people like me and countless others screaming If you want him gone then WHO do you think should replace him as nominee? Part of why I said the calls from these people for the President to step aside was pure cowardly backstabbing. But I digress.
Journalists/pundits and their bosses in the executive suites were of course delighted. I keep talking about their quadrennial wet-dream of a brokered convention and since they worked so relentlessly to drive the President out of the race in retrospect things passed the point of no-return. After November there will be time do debate when and/or who was the tipping point but at the moment I think it was Speaker Emeritus Pelosi who delivered the coup de grace. No matter. A chaotic, brokered convention that might even run on extra days was on the horizon and the entire news biz was jacked. They confidently assumed the virtual primary would be scrapped, and would get to spend weeks (with enhance ratings and the ensuing revenue) playing up the competition for who would take over. Newsome? Whitmer? Maybe Harris? Someone else? Oh my the stories they would have falling from the sky. And then there’s be the convention. And a bitter post convention that would make for tons of “Dems in Disarray” Stories. Because it leads to the third question.
How will the choice for nominee be made and who will make it? Again, this would make for multiple journalistic wet-dream orgasms. Just how in the hell would Democrats figure out how to determine who’ll be the nominee? What kind of PROCESS will they have to come up with and on the fly? A “mini-primary?” A series of hastily arranged state Party conventions? And best of all a “smoke filled back room” like days of old where elders would make the decision and tell delegates who they could pick. Or the choices they could choose from. Maybe some combination of that. Maybe something else.
Forgotten in all this is a point I raised earlier. During that awful few weeks of killing the President’s re-election by death of a thousand cuts NO ONE was standing up publicly saying yes, they were ready and willing to step in. VP Harris was loyal to the President all along so she wasn’t about to. As for the other potentials being floated, it seems they weren’t even willing to agree privately with donors and Party leaders like Pelosi and Schumer (and Jeffries) to run for the nomination. Well, no guts no glory.
Yesterday was an amazing thing to watch, as people including some who’d called for the President to step aside echoed his call for us to rally behind VP Kamal Harris. As endorsements came in with increasing speed so did money. It’s continued today. Even last night before I went to bed four state Party leaders had apparently done a canvass and announced every single one of their delegates had pledge to vote for VP Harris. That’s continuing. I said yesterday that if Democrats are smart they will follow the President’s lead and this whole thing will be settle by tomorrow. VP Harris will have not just a majority of the four thousand delegates ready to vote for her (she only needs a majority) will I believe have well over three thousand in the bag.
Various core constituency groups are making endorsements and raising money too since yesterday. Things are on a roll. The executive suites of news outlets and I think more than a few dressing rooms near sets where their “talent” prepares to go on the air are flowing with rivers of tears.
I wrote this morning that Joe freaking Manchin is (I’m sure at the behest of No Labels) pushing “mini-primary.” A handful of others including some of the mega donors are grumbling about it too. These are rich and powerful people used to getting to tell other people, “little people” like me and you what to think and do. They don’t like being ignored. Well, they can make like the mistress in Fatal Attraction:
Actually we can ignore those rich a-holes and we are. They might be feeling as that crazy as the Glenn Close character at the moment but they won’t go as nuts as she did. They know they need friends in DC on both sides of the aisle which has always been the case for big business. The Silicone Valley tech bosses have been migrating to the GOP anyway but even they will hedge their bets. Once Hollywood types settle down they’ll start doing big fundraisers again. It will be fine.
Process? It’s never been complicated. Delegates were free to vote for the candidate they wanted even before the President stepped aside. It’s up to others who want the job to stand up and announce THEY are running. And NONE of them who might have toyed with the idea, even knowing the time was coming were prepared to within 24 hours, if not Sunday evening announce. I’m sure VP Harris knew if her boss, her mentor, her FRIEND stepped aside he’d wholeheartedly support her. And he did. And SHE was ready to stand up and say she was ready. If you didn’t see her in Delaware earlier find a clip somewhere. You’re damned right she’s ready and has been for years. That’s why she was picked to be VP in the first place?
So the process is anyone who wants to run announces they are doing so. Then they have to secure some major money, at least a hundred million and before the end of this week to be taken seriously. While THAT is going on they have to hire a campaign staff and start opening offices around the country and make frantic push for signatures to get ballot access. According to the rules and campaign finance law (and state laws about ballot access) they can’t (as Harris can) have access to any of the resources the Biden/Harris campaign developed. Harris’ name is on all the Biden/Harris campaign stuff. There are all kinds of legal problems, even if Harris were to agree with transferring all that (especially ballot access) to anyone else.
So let’s sum things up:
- VP Harris has access to every resource of the Biden/Harris campaign AND President Biden’s endorsement and full support to be our nominee.
- None of the “potentials” was willing in the last few weeks to say yes, they would run if the President stepped aside. Most, if not all have in fact already endorse Harris!
- The steady stream of delegates, Democratic support groups/organizations and money that started as a stream by late afternoon has turned into a might river named Democratic Nominee and next President of the United States Kamala Harris.
- Harris is the only declared candidate for the nomination. If there was anyone else credible even thinking about it we probably would have heard about it by now, which in my case is Monday evening in the eastern time zone.
- Mini-Primary? Practically speaking there isn’t time to organize one. You’ve all see what it takes for a state to put on a regular primary or caucus that they have years to plan for every four years!
- And if you’re going to have a mini-primary you need candidates. What’s the point of wasting all that time and money that could be put towards beating Trump and the GOP if Harris is the only candidate?
Process? There’s one already. Delegates can vote how they want. If anyone wants to they can take some of the necessary steps I outlined earlier. THEN the can start calling state Party chairs to try and arrange some meetings, and start putting ads on TV and making campaign appearances in some of the states. All before the date of the virtual roll call.
I rest my case.
Kamala all the way.
No-one else stands a chance.