If there’s one thing that I’ve learned writing about Donald Trump over the years it is that if you project the worse case scenario, no matter how fantastic it may sound, there is a strong probability that that is what in fact will take place. January 6 is a testament to that proposition. When Michael Cohen testified before Congress he said that if Trump was defeated in 2020 he would not leave voluntarily. Cohen’s prediction came to pass.
Now other predictions are being made, specifically about the 2024 GOP nomination and general election. Both David Frum and Charlie Sykes have opined that Trump might very well accept the Republican nomination wearing an ankle bracelet.
“It’s not inconceivable that Trump could be wearing an ankle bracelet when and if he delivers his acceptance address at the Republican National Convention.” — David Frum, The Atlantic, May 7, 2023
During my podcast with former RNC chair Michael Steele yesterday, I was thinking about Frum’s prediction, and it triggered an admittedly dark vision.
ME: It is Milwaukee. It is the summer of 2024. And Donald Trump, who is a convicted felon out of New York, steps from behind the podium [at the Republican National Convention], pulls up his pants leg, shows the ankle bracelet and says, “I wear this as a badge of honor. I wear this for you. For you.”
The crowd would go f***ing out of their minds.
STEELE: Boom. You know, it erupts. It erupts. Women and children passed out weeping. Yeah. Yes. They’re weeping. That’s exactly what happens.
And that’s what our media and our political class still don’t get about the man in front of them. After all this time, they still don’t understand that…
I mention this as a partial antidote to any irrational exuberance over this new report, which seems like a smoking BFD: “Trump captured on tape talking about classified document he kept after leaving the White House.”
Let’s talk about that for a moment. This is a seminal moment in American history and will be remembered as such. We now have a former president, running for reelection, (the last time that happened was Grover Cleveland in 1893), and his conduct has just crossed the line into espionage. Obstruction is a place Trump’s been before, but now it’s obstruction coupled with espionage.
If the reports are accurate, he [Ryan Goodman] notes, the audio recordings show Trump talking with several people who don’t have security clearances. “If Trump discussed content of document it is even worse – and raises its own criminal exposure. These individuals are all likely good witnesses, with disincentive to lie given their number.”
Other key points from Goodman:
- “War plans are among the most highly classified documents. Puts pressure on DOJ to indict, and a jury to convict.”
- “As CNN reporting notes, this recording also goes to show knowledge and intent: ‘The recording indicates Trump understood he retained classified material after leaving the White House.’”
- “The recording also appears to knock a hole in already very weak (non-defense) defense of declassification: ‘On the recording, Trump’s comments suggest he would like to share the information but he’s aware of limitations on his ability post-presidency to declassify records.’”
- “Make no mistake. This is squarely an Espionage Act case. It is not simply an ‘obstruction’ case. There is now every reason to expect former President Trump will be charged under 18 USC 793(e) of the Espionage Act. The law fits his reported conduct like a hand in glove.”
- “Prosecutors do not need to show motive for conviction, but it helps with a jury. CNN report suggests motives: To hold onto docs as trophies, to use to settle scores or try to retain control over the narrative – here to try (in vain) to contradict [Susan Glasser’s] reporting on Milley.”
- “NYT corroborates CNN scoop plus with this specificity: ‘Trump then began referencing a document that he had with him,’ saying it was compiled by Gen. Milley and related to attacking Iran.”
That seems so cut and dried. And if you listened to any of the commentary yesterday, the experts all weighed in that indictment was a certainty and conviction a likelihood. Yet, remember, we deal with Trump. Back to David Frum at The Atlantic:
Trump’s indictments have, thus far, generated a rally effect among his co-partisans, widening his lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to 30 points in the month after. Trump’s famous confidence that his supporters would follow him even if he shot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue seems vindicated.
But the emphasis here is on thus far. More indictments may be coming. Trump is also engaged in a civil suit in which the underlying issue is an accusation that he raped one woman, backed by testimony that he sexually assaulted many more. As president, Trump could rely on some political cover because the sheer number of allegations of wrongdoing got jumbled together, confused people, and often canceled one another out. Whether accumulating indictments will now cancel out in the same way is not so clear—even less so if they turn into accumulating convictions, followed by sentences. It’s not inconceivable that Trump could be wearing an ankle bracelet when and if he delivers his acceptance address at the Republican National Convention.
If Trump receives a criminal conviction for sedition, conspiracy, or some other crime against American democracy, his most hard-core supporters might turn to extralegal or even violent forms of action, as happened on January 6, 2021. Such a repudiation of the rule of law could create an internal security challenge for the United States. At least some of the spate of mass shootings since 2021 can plausibly be interpreted as a subideological insurgency against legal authority. That’s another X factor to worry about, one protected by the way many conservatives have inscribed gun rights at the very center of their cultural identity.
The immediate X factor is whether a convicted Trump can remain viable in presidential politics. The answer has to be no. Trump heads a coalition that includes a lot of people who do not like him very much. Multiple polls find that one-fifth to one-third of self-identified Republicans hold unfavorable opinions of Trump, depending on when and how the question is posed. In November 2021, Marquette found that 40 percent of Republicans wish that Trump would not run again. Quinnipiac reported in November 2022 that a quarter of Republicans regard Trump’s influence as negative for their party. In April 2023, NBC showed that a quarter of Republicans want a nominee who is not distracted by his personal legal troubles. In a May Washington Post/ABC poll, 22 percent of Republicans and Republican leaners said they would be “dissatisfied” if Trump were nominated in 2024.
Twenty-two percent is not a lot — and certainly not on these facts. If the GOP weren’t utterly bankrupt morally, that percentage would be ninety-nine. Like everything else Trumpian, we’re all spectators, held captive watching what nuttiness breaks next, because whatever it is, the GOP will spin it and sanction it. That’s how we’ve gotten this far afield. I find it far fetched that a hard core group of fanatics, MAGA, can keep afloat a candidate who is a convicted criminal, but maybe that’s what we will see in the not too distant future.
Or, more depressingly, if that’s possible, maybe we will see the nomination of Ron DeSantis. That is, after all, exactly what DeSantis is banking on, that Trump’s legal problems will get too problematic and then he is there to take over the tiller and steer the GOP to the promised land.
In any event, it’s going to be an ugly election. Joe Biden is doing a fine job of governing but he had another fall earlier today and the way the election is going to be framed is to frame Biden as elderly, senile, ineffective — despite the track record of achievements the past three years. Elections are always emotional and people vote with their guts. 2024 is going to be the most visceral election we’ve seen.
“The crowds would go out of their f**king minds”? The people that would attend the ‘pube hootenanny are out of their f**king minds.
All I know is that 73 million people voted for this guy in 2020. That’s what haunts me.
Ursula: What haunts me is that you cannot be president if you were born outside the US but you can be president if your aSS is in jail. There’s a certain logic here I’m sure, but it escapes me!
Yes, Eugene V. Debs ran for president from prison. That’s not illegal, But he didn’t win, so there’s no precedent for actually being president while incarcerated. I would expect that to be in the category of “incapacitated” so the VP would serve. Depending on what he was in prison for, I would think impeachment might be a possibility, and it might succeed. (All Debs did to get locked up was to be vocally progressive. He actually would likely have been a great president.)
and even if he gets found guilty and is incarcerated he can pardon himself like nothing ever happened and go back to being old Donald breaking the law like usual for the next 4 years screwing the little person. I don’t think that’s what the American people really want.
Whether a President can pardon themselves is a bit murky from a Constitutional viewpoint. Some say yes (guess who if it happened to be a Republican President!) and some say not so, especially for a “corrupt purpose.” SCOTUS wouldn’t want to touch this with a telephone pole. But if Trump were to somehow get back into office or someone blindly loyal to him were to get into the WH they might not have a choice but to weigh in. My guess is that they’d hope since the case would go through the DC Circuit it’s Court of Appeals might well rule a President can’t self-pardon and rather than grant Cert SCOTUS would let such a ruling stand. Let’s hope it never gets to that point. And regardless, a President has ZERO power to pardon or commute state convictions and sentences. So keep your fingers crossed that both NY and GA will win convictions of Trump.
I have never had a security clearance of any sort, but I do have some affinity for trump. I can be a bit klepto. I have been not known to slip a wine glass in my pocket, or some klm flatware back when you got real knives and forks on international flights. what’s a few classified documents. store them in a warehouse or maybe your ex wifes casket. why make such a big deal about it;)