Yes, the Political Doctors of the Wall Street Journal have issued a prognosis of doom and gloom for Trump (and the GOP) and that Trump is in for some ‘bigly’ suffering. Make no mistake, this is “Doctor” Rupert Murdoch telling Trump (as doctors often warn us before doing something) ‘This is going to hurt a little.’ Only anyone who’s heard that from a doctor (or dentist) knows what is really being said is to get ready cause this is going to HURT!
Now that some of the dust is settling we can look at results in the three states that had primaries and begin the admittedly fraught process of figuring out what it all portends for subsequent primaries. And, more importantly the November midterms. The opening of this Daily Beast article says this week’s primary elections spell doom for Republicans:
The Journal’s editorial board noted that Democrats were “climbing over one another to vote” in the Senate primary race between James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the historically red state of Texas, and that the key voting bloc of Hispanics also “swung hard” toward Democrats overall compared with 2024.
“This is emphatically consistent with the results in other elections in the last year. President Trump is inspiring Democrats to turn out, as he might put it, like no one has ever seen before,” the board wrote.
I enjoyed that little dig (at Trump) at the end. Like I said one can be sure the WSJ piece got run past Murdoch before it was published. To be fair, even if he didn’t approve he probably wouldn’t have exerted pressure but still… I know so many got discouraged after Trump’s 2024 win. So many seem to have given up. At least that’s how it seems to those of us on political blogs. However we’ve seen something else. In election after election since that awful night in 2024 Democrats have “overperformed” again and again. We’ve won a lot more than we’ve lost even in Red places. Even when our candidates have lost margins were cut to single digits and in some cases a five or six percent margin is one that we can overcome. Trust me when I say it’s giving the GOP heartburn over having to spend resources in places/races where until recently a Republican could win while barely campaigning.
So there’s that. Then there was No Kings, which got a massive turnout. No Kings II got millions more people out. What will we see later this month? For all the physical challenges I’m going to try like hell to get to one where I live (near Raleigh, North Carolina) and spoke with a fellow veteran about maybe getting his help. THEN there’s the massive outpouring of folks in Minnesota protesting ICE’s occupation, brutality and even murder. Around the country people organized protests supporting them. Finally, a quieter but just as important form of protest has been giving Team Trump fits.
Even in ruby Red states there has been opposition to DHS’ attempts to buy warehouses for Stephen Miller’s wet-dream of American versions of Nazi Germany’s Concentration Camps. Make no mistake, that’s what those ‘detention centers’ are intended to be. I’ll bet Miller has a couple of landscape architects/engineers working on where the death chambers and cremation ovens will be placed!
So when the WSJ predicts doom and gloom they’ve got an awful lot to back it up. They cite votes cast in the Texas primaries for good reason. Now, admittedly for me Texas and a Democrat winning a statewide race is a Lucy yanking the football away from poor Charlie Brown thing. And if somehow Cornyn wins the runoff with Paxton, it might as was the case with O’Rourke and Cruz, be a case of close but no cigar. On the other hand if Paxton is the nominee then while I won’t be confident I won’t gripe about resources going to Democratic nominee Talarico to beat him.
Time and money the GOP has to spend in Texas is time and money that can’t be invested somewhere else. Texas is a bigassed state and it takes a LOT to run and win a campaign there. It’s a headache the GOP, and especially Trump literally can’t afford this year. Yet it’s likely Trump will endorse Paxton no matter how much Thune or even Susie Wiles tries to convince him to endorse Cornyn instead. I’ll get back to that.
The WSJ points out what we already know. The Party in power almost always loses seats in the midterms. Even before starting his war with Iran, Trump’s handling or rather MIS-handling of the economy has almost ensured the GOP will lose the House and the only question will be how much of a majority new Speaker Jeffries will have to work with. The Senate was always going to be an almost impossible mountain to climb but the editorial suggests, as has been suggested elsewhere that Democrats are in sight of the summit. As on Everest that last part is the toughest and many a climber hasn’t made it to the top but some do. And while odds are still in the GOP’s favor it’s by no means a lock for them:
However, the Journal’s board also suggested that Democrats could retake control of the Senate in the midterms, with Trump part of the reason the GOP’s 53–47 seat majority is “vulnerable.”
“Democrats are favored in North Carolina after Mr. Trump pushed incumbent Thom Tillis out of the race. Susan Collins is the best possible GOP candidate in Maine, but Mr. Trump said recently she should never be elected again after she voted for a war powers resolution,” the board wrote.
“An open seat in Iowa is no sure thing as Mr. Trump’s tariffs weigh on the farm economy. Democrats have a good shot in Ohio, with former Sen. Sherrod Brown as the Democratic challenger to appointed Sen. Jon Husted. Dan Sullivan, the highly effective GOP incumbent in Alaska, has also drawn a well-known challenger in former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola,” the board continued.
I rather enjoyed the Board’s deadpan quote relating to GOP hopes that somehow the economy will be better this fall when voting starts. (I say given the headwinds and Trump’s stubbornness and vindictiveness that’s unlikely) The WSJ wrote that if the GOP’s hope about the economy doesn’t pan out the Texas primary results will be a “forecast, not an omen.” I got a kick out of that.
Loss of the House would be a huge blow for Trump but he’s virtually assured that will happen. Loss of the Senate is the kind of disaster that will give him nightmares. He can forget about ramming through hack appointees and especially judges and Justices. In fact I can’t help but wonder if GOPers are quietly imploring Thomas and Alito to step down when the current session ends in June so Trump and Thune can ram though forty-something clones. Democrats tried to get RBG to retire when Obama could have named a worthy replacement. She refused and I’ll bet so will Thomas and Scalia. Unless the GOP loses the Senate in November. That’s another topic that deserves it’s own discussion.
What matters for now is that we have to hold our ground in a couple of Red states but it’s doable. Here in NC where I live Roy Cooper is in the driver’s seat to flip Tillis’ seat to our side. In Maine Susan Collins is probably toast. We still need at least two more. Maybe Ohioans have been singing the tag line of Big Yellow Taxi (Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s GONE) and return Sherrod Brown to the Senate. Flipping Iowa isn’t as crazy as it sounds either. Obama won there once and made it close the second time. I’m sure he will spend some time there rallying Democrats and Independents.
Then there’s Texas. Trump says he will endorse soon (I could be wrong but it will be Paxton) and expecting, hell DEMANDING the other guy drop out. I simply can’t see either Cornyn or Paxton dropping out. At least not for quite a while, and bloodying each other up during that time. Cornyn would still have to spend resources the GOP needs elsewhere but not as much as it would take to get Paxton over the top in November. I hate to say this and know I’ll take crap for it but as much as I love Jasmin Crocket she is too much of a firebrand to win enough Independent voters in Texas. And she’s a black woman. It’s not right. It’s not fair. But that’s the cold, hard reality of Texas. Talarico can make Cornyn (and the GOP) at least sweat. And Paxton not only more so but actually put the seat at risk for the GOP.
I know I shouldn’t, but I can’t help but fantasize about us gaining control of the Senate because TEXAS flipped blue! But if Paxton is their nominee it’s actually possible. And Trump himself would have made it so which would cause me to finish off a bottle of Jack Daniels that’s sat untouched for a long time now. For the moment I’ll shut up and concentrate on finding new things our readers need to learn about. AND preparing to help GOTV initiatives as the year progresses.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
As far as the mood of the democratic electorate, yes I think a lot of us were discouraged after tRump won. But now I think we’re pissed about many things. The economy, defunding medicare, medicaid and snap, killing innocents in boats, Epstein, ICE, invading other countries. Yes, we are motivated like never before and I am loving it.
I love it too. Still, while you are someone who engages here regularly not nearly as many people do as used to be the case. Everyone’s email keeps blowing up with fundraising requests from this or that candidate or group and I shudder at what’s to come. Fighting to get OFF lists is a losing battle. I try, but lists get shared and sold and not always by Democratic candidates and groups.
Most articles here include a fundraising request. Like other political blogs (at least progressive ones) the number of folks who come here has crashed. It happened even before the 2024 election. How tough has it gotten for this and other sites? I recently got a direct email request from DK which I haven’t posted on (either an article/diary or comment) in years! I won’t bore you with why I stopped going there other than to say it changed.
AND this site was here. It was informative with an excellent core group of writers and sometimes even a bit fun. Eventually I became a feature writer here myself in addition to behind the scenes work for the site. Not one of the best. Not by a long shot but now and then I managed to post something worthy of attention.
Anyway, what hooked me as one of the best things about this place was that stories that got posted but you didn’t have time to read because you only had a few minutes would still be easily available hours later or even the next day. That made it a LOT easier to be better informed because at places like this a lot of the content is generated by things we find that aren’t really dominating the news. Often it’s important stuff and as proof I ask you or anyone reading this to think for a few minutes about having seen an article here – one that made you say “Hmmm, that’s good to know” and days later it was all of a sudden a topic written/talked about by national outlets!
But sometimes not. Still, the reason a place like this matters is IF there are enough visitors reading what’s here they can act on it and more importantly tell others and perhaps get them to act on it. Yes, thousands and sometimes millions in the streets makes politicians sit up and notice. But often they worry a bit about their position and shrug it off as other news gets reported.
There is however ONE thing that costs nothing but a little time that DOES make elected critters take notice, and sometimes shift their positions. (If not change, at least soften enough to work on a compromise) Every phone call and email to an elected official on Capitol Hill gets tracked. When Rachael Maddow says speaking up works this is what she’s talking about. Yes, when she gets on the soapbox she talks about protests and say communities blocking projects but she also talks about lighting up the phones of elected officials.
A few calls taking a Congress Critter to task on this or that matter whether it’s a national issue or a state/local one don’t matter to them. However, when forty or fifty people call/email blasting them on a fairly specific topic/issue they take notice. If it gets up into the hundreds they really start to worry. Us old farts remember a saying about business whether some small store or a corporations that went: For every complaint that comes in ten (at least) other customers feel the same but didn’t go to the effort to speak up.
THAT is why getting and staying informed and then doing what I so often do (encourage you to call/write Congress Critters) is so important. Yes, a site like this is grateful beyond measure for any extra cash people directly donate. And yes, we need it more than ever these days. But adverstising revenue is what truly matters and just coming here and clicking on stories doesn’t cost anyone a penny. It DOES however generate ad revenue. I hate ads as much as the next person but being what sometimes feels like assaulted by ads it part of life.
When someone comes here and opens articles to read it generates revenue to keep us going. And as I keep saying doesn’t cost the person anything but a little time. Plus, if instead of just “clicking” visitors actually read they learn things. Sometimes as I said they learn them anyway if a story ‘goes national’ but being first to tell people you know about it gives you an air of credibility during discussions. Enough to sway even a group sometimes. In the neighborhood, at work, at church or other places where you meet up with others on at least a semi-regular basis.
Yes, what I’ve written is self-serving. I want to see our readership increase. But I can honestly say it’s about more than enough viewers helping us stay afloat, it’s also about getting people well informed enough to engage other. Including and ESPECIALLY elected officials. I’ll say it again – if enough people contact an official telling them thanks for their position or taking them to task and telling them they need to change it DOES matter.
So please, everyone tell people you know about us. They don’t have to spend an hour here perusing articles but five or ten minutes (or more if one has the time) makes all the difference. AND helps you to make a more pointed case if you do contact Congress Critters!
Denis, this piece and this response are beautifully written and much better than anything I could do. I’m always glad to read your columns because I *always* learn something. Also, I am not one of the best writers here.
*You* brought me on board after a great discussion in comments. I was and am thrilled to be writing for Pz. I couldn’t go anywhere else because I don’t have *that* much talent.
I read every single column people post. I try not to duplicate, although Noem yesterday with all 4 of us was far too much fun. If I do, it’s usually different enough that it doesn’t matter. We all have our styles, and they work for us.
Thank you for everything you do.