Yes, you read the headline correctly. Yet another Red State has chosen to either reject outright or hit the pause button on redrawing Congressional maps mid-decade. Even AFTER the disgraceful recent SCOTUS rulings. In the interest of accuracy Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s attempt to ram threw a new set of Congressional maps wouldn’t have affected this year’s elections, but rather those in 2028. (More on why he tried in a bit) However as of yesterday the legislature has pointedly said ‘Now is NOT the time.’
This is startling to say the least, but what at a glance looks like a fuzzy image becomes clearer when you put on your glasses, or hit the focus button. But let’s start with the most recent development in Georgia, which is explained by The Guardian. The Georgia legislature has oh so politely told their Governor “Don’t hand out in your office waiting for a bill to sign. We are going to take our time and think about long-term consequences’:
“We believe that it’s important to do things the Georgia way, responsibly, transparently, and with ample opportunity for public input,” said Jon Burns, the Georgia house speaker.
Burns cited a rushed timeline and incomplete understanding of the ramifications of a supreme court ruling in April that weakened protections for minority voters under the Voting Rights Act, which prompted a Republican scramble to redraw voting districts to the party’s advantage in an effort to preserve its slim majority in the US House of Representatives.
I say the real reason is in former Confederate states or those (i.e. Kansas) inclined their way there is growing fear of voter backlash. AND that the backlash isn’t limited to non-white voters although in the south disproportionately large black (and Hispanic in some places) numbers of voters will come out in droves. Even white conservatives worry about pushing the envelope too much. I think, and I’ll bet others do too that the real worry is what happens in 2028. As in Democrats regaining control of the WH and both chambers of Congress.
Voting Rights legislation aimed straight at all these Red state’s antics and SCOTUS which under Roberts has become part of the legislative branch on this issue (among others) to ram through a newer, updated version of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Even with the filibuster I’m not sure enough Republican Senators would step in to block real reform. In the meantime I truly believe a fear has set in amongst conservatives that they’ve already gone to far in ‘servicing’ their Orange Turd-God Trump on this issue. No matter what, since Trump won’t let it go and be content with his already ill-gotten gains the GOP realizes it’s got a problem.
Well, many do. Georgia’s Brian Kemp is trying to dance along the edge of a razor blade wearing thin rubber sandals, using Trump’s desire for MORE to smooth over the rift MAGA has with him. I’ve long said Gov. Brian Kemp wants to be President (told you I’d get to this). So much so he skipped a pretty good shot at becoming a Senator. Even if he’d beaten incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff this fall it would have been a tough fight.
Kemp’s problem is MAGA is angry with him for not ‘delivering’ Georgia’s electoral votes to Trump in 2020. With Trump demanding every red state engage in unethical and highly unusual mid decade redistricting to grab more Republican seats it was a no-brainer, particularly in the wake of SCOTUS Callais decision to call a special session. He has tried to set himself up with Independents and semi-rational Republicans. He will claim he ‘Never tried to mess with 2026! Just make sure 2028 was (ahem) more fair.’ The coldly cynical calculation was that he could tell Trump ‘It was too late to do anything about this year but I fixed things for 2028 for you – can I please, pretty please get a kind word from you?’ while telling everyone else he hadn’t tried to jump on this years GOP redistricting bandwagon.
Now he’s got his legislature telling him he might not even get something for 2028. There’s good reason they are suddenly so cautious and willing to risk the wrath of Trump. Yes, Indiana told Trump no and he made some of their legislators pay. However while it’s reliably red it’s not a hopelessly red state. Having been born in southern Illinois and living there until I left to become a Marine at age 26 I can say Midwesterners are both practical and stubborn – especially when outsiders try to push them around.
Since then Kansas declined to try and redraw their one Democratic district out of existence. With a Democrat in the Governor’s Mansion it just wasn’t worth what would ultimately be a losing fight. GOPers in South Carolina recently flatly rejected re-drawing Jim Clyburn’s district out of existence. It was clear they feared a massive backlash and not just from black people in the state. A lot of WHITE voters were telling them not to mess with things!
If you take a look at Texas where all this started things start to make sense. Politizoom’s own Murfster wrote multiple articles about how ‘over gerrymandering’, especially mid cycle can actually leave the GOP vulnerable. He makes the case that by making solid GOP districts less so by spreading out their voters some of the new districts are only narrowly in their favor. He argues that given the right conditions (i.e. being tied to the most unpopular President in history) and the economy being in the toilet (say a fake gold one) conditions are ripe for a wave election. Any Republican from a district (or state if we’re talking the Senate) where the Republican is in five percent advantage territory is in deep sh!t.
Sure enough one of Texas’ brand new shiny GOP districts isn’t so shiny bright Red. I can’t remember his name but a well-known Tejano singer has mounted a surprising challenge in one of those five newly drawn districts. More bluntly, the Texas GOP has Trump and Paxton dragging them down so much those five new seats they were sure they’d get has a strong chance of being only four! And maybe not even that. The startlingly strong Hispanic support for Trump and the GOP in 2024 has largely evaporated. Yes, most Democrats in Texas still face a headwind but it’s turned into a light breeze instead of hurricane force.
Across the south black voters are angry as hell. Despite visits to southern states until I moved to NC I didn’t realize just how many more black people lived in Confederate states than I’d thought. What others should also know is that while racism still runs deep and wide these black voters have a lot of white friends. Many of those friends are conservative leaning Independents and those white folks might well decide it’s time to smack Trump and the GOP down.
That’s what I think happened in South Carolina recently, and is now happening in Georgia. Republicans are having an “Uh Oh” moment at the same time they are confronting Trump’s clearly devolving mental and physical state. The dude looks like he’s got if not one foot in the grave then in a bed in a nursing home. Without Trump MAGA wouldn’t exist and for all the wannabes the fact is there is no one who can rule and mobilize it like Trump.
Don’t kid yourself – Trump still wields lots of power and influence but his grip is clearly weakening and each time a Republican stands up to him it’s a stomp on his grubby little short fingers. Given his obsession with having LOST Georgia there freaking STATE legislature not falling into line and doing what he’s told them to do will hurt. “Bigly”
We are well away from the point of a critical mass of Trump defiance turning into a self-sustaining chain reaction but the Georgia legislature’s decision following on South Carolina’s so quickly is promising.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
