Why the Polls Are Garbage

If there has ever been a more dystopian election year in American history, I have not seen it in my lifetime and I do not recall it from history — although 1864 would qualify as the most contentious election before now. The difference between then and now was monumental, but the level of contention is as elevated now as it has not been since then. The country was split into two and the Southern States were not participating in the 1864 election, evidently thinking they could still win the war. It wasn’t until April of 1865 that the matter was conclusively settled. Here’s what the electoral map looked like.

Kansas, Nevada, and West Virginia became states during this election cycle. You can see how much of the west simply hadn’t changed to the map we now know, but was the wild west until you got out close to the west coast. One similarity that 1864 bears with 2024 is that it was a contest between Americans v. Traitors. Ulysses S. Grant said that, “There are only two parties now, Americans and Traitors.” He made it clear which party he was a part of.

And so we have the same set up today. We are not at actual physical odds with one another — yet — but the emotional setup is very much the same. MAGA hates America. Make no mistake. They claim to be patriots, but see that for the twaddle that it is. They hate our way of life and are hell bent on destroying it.

Rick Wilson’s column today addresses this plus points out a frightening difference between now and 1864. The 1864 election was a blow out. The 2024 election should be too — but that’s not what the polls say. Let’s look at what’s going on.

The Biden campaign and the pro-democracy movement feel defensive, not assertive. It seems like Democrats aren’t celebrating America’s greatness or reveling in its accomplishments and glory. Instead, the other side makes grandiose, revanchist promises and, in the minds of too many, owns the ideas of the flag, patriotism, and national pride.

The way the MAGA masterminds behind Trump have given their voters the green light to hate this nation is a powerful political tool.

Make no mistake: they hate America.

They want the iconography but none of the responsibility. They want the logos but not the rule of law. They want big parades but not the big idea of a Constitution. They want the eagles and fireworks, monster-truck America, not an America shaped by pain, sacrifice, and an endless quest for justice and equality for every citizen in a constitutional Republic.

They want an uglier, darker, crueler, and less free America.

But by God, they want to win. That’s the difference between the MAGA Party and the Democrats that screams out like a banshee in the night: they want it, and they’ll do anything to get it.

That’s the lesson here. Trump has been running the GOP for lo these many years and he has transformed it. How? Because his extremists have passion. Rage is a lot hotter emotion than kindness or compassion. Yes, Joe Biden is doing a fine job in office. He’s running a perfectly credible and effective campaign. Yet the polls scream at us daily that the criminal defendant, soon to be the convicted criminal, I predict, is running ahead of the good, competent statesmen who is safely guiding the ship of state. What gives? I think that Rick Wilson is right. MAGA wants it more, and so MAGA is noisier than the Democrats.

And for this reason, do not believe the polls. The industry of scientific polling has been in trouble for a number of years, largely due to shifts in technology. Pollsters call landlines. A lot of people don’t even have landlines. It’s difficult for pollsters to get the right polling sample that is actually representative of anything. This is why you saw the wildly skewed polls in 2016 predicting a Clinton blow out and you know what happened. Every election since 2016 has been problematic. The last election 2022, was again, wildly skewed. It was supposed to be the year of the red tsunami, “40 seats” Kevin McCarthy crowed, before it was off with his head. Not even close.

Nobody trusts the polls these days as a result. Axios:

Democratic senators who represent presidential battlegrounds agree with President Biden — polls showing him trailing former President Trump in those key states are wrong.

Why it matters: The skepticism is especially notable because a number of Democrats from those states have a polling lead over their Republican opponents in pivotal Senate races.

• Retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) told Axios, “I do not think that they are accurate” when asked about the polls. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin has been leading in early Michigan Senate polls, even as Biden trails Trump.
• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) told Axios: “The polls showed that I was down when I entered my race. And polls didn’t look that great for Angela Alsobrooks a couple weeks ago.”
• Sen. Bob Casey (D-Penn.) told Axios: “It’s early … every candidate, whether it’s the president or me — we have to work every day to earn people’s votes.”

The big picture: After Trump’s 2016 expectation-defying win, pollsters and strategists made adjustments aimed at better capturing Trump supporters.

• Democrats say the polls are missing key voter dynamics on their side.
• “There are certain communities that are missed,” added Warnock, who narrowly ousted Republican Kelly Loeffler in a 2021 runoff.

Zoom in: Biden is campaigning in swing states where polls show he needs to make up ground.

• He delivered today’s commencement address at the historically Black Morehouse College in Atlanta, Georgia, and is speaking at a large NAACP dinner in Detroit, Michigan tonight.
• He was in Wisconsin last week and has visited his birth state of Pennsylvania at least seven times this year, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) also told Axios elections in his state are always going to be close, but he predicted Biden would win. He added that he would like to see Biden and Vice President Harris visit Arizona more.

Let’s get to the bottom line: if the polls are right and Trump is headed back to Washington, then America is gone. We have succeeded in amusing ourselves to death, as was predicted by a book with that title by Neil Postman in the 1980’s. If we are so stupid and so apathetic that a majority of us are listening to Fox News above getting straight facts from legitimate news sources, which are not listed as entertainment companies, but actual news companies, then America is gone.

If you think, after everything you’ve seen, that the GOP is going to do anything less than the full fascist play, you’ve been asleep. If you think Trump is playing games when he says he wants a three-term (or more) presidency, stop imagining he’s just trolling you.

Whatever one calls it, it’s not conservative. Trump and his political allies are utterly amoral, deeply committed to overthrowing America as we know it and remaking the United States into an isolationist, regional power defined by authoritarian statism, populism, white nationalism, and Christian extremism. […]

They’re winning because they know the media will treat their lies and deceptions not as lies and deceptions but as clever political tactics. They’re winning because deep in the hearts of too many in the press, Trump’s evil may be an issue, but his novelty and entertainment value make their lives more interesting and keep the clicks flowing.

As I said, amusing ourselves to death. Bread and circus above governance. Giving the keys to the public coffers to a man who has a spectacular history of financial insolvency and crooked dealings. So is entertainment value the prime virtue in this nation and that’s why we have the reality TV guy doing yet another reality TV show? Is this America’s future, a bunch of photogenic know nothing mouthing platitudes on camera and stealing us blind in actuality?

Rick Wilson says, “When people are watching a dogfight, they’d better see some fight in the damn dog.” This is a dogfight. It’s America v. Trump/MAGA. We have to pull out all the stops to win this one.

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