I’m serious. What happens with Ukraine if suddenly we start hearing the sad, funereal music coming from Russia? It’s not as crazy as it sounds and I’ll get to why in a minute. However let’s start with the assumption Trump was being truthful (rare but it happens) when he said Putin could do whatever the hell he wants with Ukraine. Everyone in Europe is bracing for a vast reduction (if not complete end to) U.S. aid to Ukraine. NATO too. It’s widely assumed that once again Putin will “suggest” and Trump will do all he can to accommodate his puppet-master. But what if Putin is no longer there?
Think back to when the whole Ukraine war began. It seemed like a done deal. Putin’s forces would control Kyiv within a day or two, his forces would roll down from the north from Belarus and westward from Russia and within days Ukraine would capitulate. Zelenskyy would be either dead or in a humiliating exile. Even many in NATO and our own commanders thought this a likely outcome. However events unfolded quite differently.
Russian corruption had taken it’s toll and all those shiny vehicles, from heavy trucks to Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) to even a lot of the tanks only LOOKED good and ready for war. Same for an awful lot of the troops. There’s a big difference between marching in humongous numbers in Red Square and being in the field fighting a war. Only it wasn’t supposed to be a war. Not really. Putin, and no doubt too many of his military commanders believed the show of force would be pretty much all that was needed. A few firefights and it would all be over except for the attaining and enjoying the spoils of the Russian victory.
A funny thing happened on the way to the victory dance. Ukrainians fought back. Instantly. Fiercely. What Pootie overlooked was all those years of occupying chunks of the eastern part of Ukraine. Ukraine had a LOT of former troops who’d become reservists. Troops who had been “blooded” as in experienced combat. Using what little weaponry they could they didn’t wait. Small bands started fighting back. With only a single main road down from Belarus bottling up the Russians and taking that whole “pretty” set of divisions apart piece by piece was a sight to see.
Then you had Zelenskyy who refused to leave. He didn’t quite say the words “I don’t want a plane to evacuate, give me weapons” but that was the gist of it and my did the help start flowing in. The Russian airborne troops that were supposed to take the airport outside Kyiv were quickly defeated. Russia still made advances but not at the rate they expected. When it was clear that with logistical support Ukraine could hold that was it right there. Ever since the war has been a meat-grinder for Russia.
Many of their young people, not just men fled. That included a LOT of those Russia would need to run companies and govt. organization for a generation. If not for their insane stockpile of artillery rounds Russia would have long ago lost the war. The other thing that stopped Ukraine from winning outright was the hesitancy of western leaders to provide weapons that could strike into Russia itself. There were concerns with all Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling of escalation.
More recently some of those restrictions have been loosened. Also, Ukraine has been building up its own capability to manufacture weapons. Now Moscow itself is getting just a taste of what it’s dished out on Kyiv. More recently the war has been going pretty badly for Russia. I saw a report the other day about them losing an entire Regiment (depending on type 1500-2000 troops in a single day) on top of losing over a thousand troops a day in the month of November. As this report from Reuters indicates Russia is making major attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defenses. And as I’ve said losing an appalling number of troops and also a lot of military equipment in the process.
Ukraine is increasingly striking into Russia. Oil production facilities, plants needed for weapons production and so forth. It’s also clear Ukraine has (probably western trained special forces) troops operating in Russia conducting much of the sabotage that’s going on that’s affecting more than just the war effort. It’s harder to pin down but there have been hints of Russians who are fed up and doing some of the same although not on a large scale. Yet. Putin has long had good reason to fear for his safety. Even before that aborted coup.
Putin also has had major health issues. There were reports of (stomach) cancer. For damned sure he’s had appearances where he was anything but a vibrant picture of health. It’s been a long, long time since we’ve seen him riding shirtless on a horse! Cancer CAN be successfully treated and it’s not like Putin can’t get quality medical care. But it’s a disease that often seems to be beaten only to reappear. So there’s that. The stress he’s under sure doesn’t do him any good to fight off any new bouts, or other health issues that tend to pop up in people when they get to his age. Stress can do brutal things to the human body.
Now that we’re talking about stress let’s talk about the batshit insane paranoia Putin has been feeling for years now. If he has a meeting with almost anyone they are at the other end of a fifty freaking foot long table. Probably strip searched before being allowed in the room with him and Putin would have been watching on a monitor. THAT is how scared he is of even his own people. Does anyone believe that among his oligarchs some have contemplated finding a way to knock Pootie off? To cause him to suffer a classic Russian “9mm Headache?”
The war isn’t going well at all. Russia has been hanging on the edge for a while now and resorting to using other country’s (North Korea for now) troops is a sign of how bad things are. Sure, they might be thinking like so many that with Trump again in power in the U.S. all will work out. However some of them have experience in the west. Would it hurt to have the U.S. cut back aid? Damned right it would. However they also know that despite President Biden’s efforts to rebuild the alliance the U.S. could never be counted on again to be the rock solid partner, or now even leader of the alliance. Every four years it would be a coin flip.
There are oligarchs and generals in Russia who might be saying it’s time to cut off the head of the snake while there’s a President Biden that might foster a workable peace deal. When it comes to that latter group keep in mind Pootie has it seems decided it’s time for another purge. Putin’s “Praetorian Guard” looks more capable than it actually is. Like in old Russia it gets the best weapons and equipment but they aren’t all that well trained. A single rifle company of regular Russian troops could storm the Kremlin and wipe them out. On the other hand some of those guys are in that special Pootie protection detail due to family connections. Knowing they’d be gotten safely out and well taken care of Putin probably can’t trust all of THEM anymore!
I’m not saying it will happen, that Putin will die of either natural causes or something much darker in the weeks ahead but don’t be surprised. Which gets me back to the original question – If his puppet master isn’t there, who is Trump supposed to hand Ukraine over to? With the rejection of Trump’s pick for Senate Majority Leader it’s clear that while the GOP Senate will go along with a lot of Trump’s agenda abandoning Ukraine might not be something they or a lot of House members will go along with.
Abandoning Ukraine and not honoring NATO and other international commitments gets into Treaty territory which is Senate stuff. Senators are awfully protective of their powers. I realize this has been a dense read but if you’ve given me the privilege of your time to read it I thank you. And hope it’s something you’ll talk about with others. Trump is set to do his own military purge and install generals who are loyal to him rather than the Constitution. But if he gets his way and abandons Ukraine and because NATO has quietly prepared to take up the slack the U.S. role as the leader of the free world is DONE.
I’ve seen ‘worried’ reporting that NATO isn’t up to the task. But I’ve seen other reporting that while it would hurt, they can make up for the loss. More important is something that’s not been much talked about yet. At least not publicly. However, when someone like former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a former Trump pal starts talking about NATO troops in Ukraine I don’t think he’s spitballing. He’s still in a position to know things. Don’t believe me? Check out this article from from Newsweek. It’s a helluva ‘what if” to ponder if the U.S. walks away, at least on Ukraine and NATO steps up and helps them win without us. Think about what that will mean. Frankly, it will wind up resulting in when WE want help from others they’ll not be shy about saying no. And letting it be known why.
There’s a part of me that thinks while the KKKrazy KKKaucus in the House (it looks like the GOP will barely hold control) wants to keep being stupid, there are enough GOP Senators that will want to put a break on all that. Especially if there’s no more Putin and Russia goes through it’s own messy (and brutal) “who’s next” period.
There’s always unintended consequences. Stupid phuckers will never see or acknowledge that FACT. As Ned Beatty said in Shooter…there’s always some sob who thinks they can make a difference and you have to kill him to convince him he’s wrong.
I have to admit kind of liking that movie. One thing I wish had been different. When the Senator self-righteously shouts ‘I’m a United States Senator’ the guy about to shoot his despicable ass dead says “Exactly” before pulling the trigger. I’ve always though it would have been much better if the Gunny had said something like ‘So? Do you actually think that makes you bulletproof?’ Then shoot him in the gut and let him howl and whine for fifteen seconds before the head or heart shot.
We’re in Red Sky at Morning type seas and it’s going to be an epically rough storm. No telling where the winds and waves will find us when it’s blown out. We just have to somehow keep the ship upright and limit the damage to navigate when that point comes.
Very interesting read Denis. Thank you.
Thank you for saying so. For all that’s going on here this isn’t the only part of the world. There’s Gaza and the middle east too. And for all those Muslims in so many places but Dearborn, MI in particular (that one really hurt Harris) who were blunt about not liking Trump but goddamit they were going to teach Biden, Harris and Democrats a lesson I want journalists to go back there in the spring. Netanyahu might wait until Trump is sworn in but the time is coming when he really will adopt a “Kill em all and let God sort em out” strategy in Gaza and start doing the same with the West Bank. He wants EVERY person of Palestinian heritage off Israeli soil and if they won’t leave on their own then he will kill them, starve them, whatever it takes to eradicate them from his country. Just like a certain dictator tried to to to Jewish people once upon a time. I guess “Never again” doesn’t apply if radical asshole leaders in Israel decide it doesn’t apply to THEM and commit far more widespread atrocities before the Israeli people can force them from power. I want to be clear – I DON’T think the average Israeli is down with their own country acting like Nazi Germany. Sure, they want (and deserve) to have Hammas wiped out. But most Israeli’s I truly believe don’t want what has gone on to go the way it has. Nor do they want what Bibi and his cronies want.
But that’s what they’re going to get because Trump won’t say jack shiite either publicly or privately to Netanyahu to be judicious in how he deals with that particular war. Unlike in Russia people in Israel have access to outside communications and journalists. I suspect there’s a lot more unrest in Russia than we know. It’s just a lot harder and more dangerous for people to voice their dissent, even to what they think might be friends. Or even family. Just like the old USSR in the new Russia people have to worry about family members informing on them! That’s the way Trump wants things to be here. Many GOPers are fine with that but I’m not so sure most of them are. Especially those in a position to assume great power themselves who know that Trump isn’t going to live forever. Maybe not even half his next term.
you forget that Iran still has formidable capabilities that they will use especially if the U.S. moves or takes a hands off approach to the situation. The US has F.A. and now we’re about to find out
I’m OK with your Middle East analysis. Less than OK with the capability of the recently appointed envoy (pretty sure he is also less OK as there are likely to be cushier berths as a reward for letting his golf partner win. That said, his real estate background will be to the fore when the Gaza beachfronts are cleared! Methinks I have spotted T’s rationale.)
The USA provides 14 % approx of NATO’s spending and resources, this means that the other members supply 85+% of it’s resources, meaning that if America leaves it won’t be that difficult to replace their materiel and funding. The E.U. and Canada are wealthy and can afford it.
The big loss for the USA is the loss of trust in what it can be relied on to do. The AUKUS agreement will probably be over too, and why would Australia commit to buying a trillion dollars worth of nuclear subs off America when they can get them from France ? Lockheed Martin had to do a joint venture with British BAE to design and make the F35, it’s replacement outside the USA is already going to be a JV between Britain, Spain, Germany, and Japan. Anyone who was looking at the cheaper US F16 will now be looking at the French Rafale, Swedish Gripen, or Anglo German Typhoon, all these choices coming without involvement in messy US politics-just as it looked like Boeing and Lockheed Martin were about to make hay in the combat aircraft field now Russian aircraft are sanctioned off it.
So Trump is going to kill the US armaments industries. already reeling from Boeing’s travails, (ironically inflicted on it by the money men now funding Trump, Boeing delivered 291 planes this year, Airbus delivered 569). A $250 billion/year industry, or 15%-20% of exports gone is sure going to add to the mess caused by import tariffs.
And this doesn’t include the question of Us bases in British or German territories. How can the US ‘project power’ without Ramstein or Lakenheath, Mildenhall, Croughton, Alconbury, or Malta or Diego Garcia?
Only complete morons could wreck both the import and export economies at the same time as wrecking the military, they just got voted in.
I’ll bet Mr V. Putin is over the moon.
Trump pulls us out of NATO, Putin takes Ukraine, then Poland, and mops up a lot of Eastern Europe, then sets his sights on the US. We go crying to our former NATO allies and it’s “talk to the hand”.
No, sorry Michael, Putin’s not going to take Ukraine if Trumpler pulls out of NATO. NATO will survive and so will Ukraine. It’s bleeding Putin’s vaunted army dry by the bloody day and making any military threat by Russia look absurd. Trump may try to give Ukraine to his handler Vladimir but he can’t do it, he doesn’t have that power and nor does the US.
That sad funereal music would be “Swan Lake.”
It’s been played at regine changes in Rissia for I don’t know how long and am too lazy to look it up, but possiblt since the death of Stalin. Listen for it
Fun one Denis.. it’s fine with me.. even better if Trump kicks bucket first!
MAGA has from its beginnings failed to recognized just exactly WHAT made America great – our willingness to share resources and knowledge with our allies to benefit all concerned. Our social issues notwithstanding, we epitomized the adage that “democracy is the worst form of government in the world – except for all those other forms”.
I don’t relish the thought of Von Schitzie cashing in before experiencing all his well-deserved Karma. I envision NATO, including Canada, stepping up to prevent Russia’s expansionist goals in eastern Europe, then telling Trump, “KMA”, with Mexico and Canada jointly taking over leadership of the OAS, and Japan and the ROK following suit wit SEATO. I foresee open, raucous laughter at his next address to the UN, and his removal from office under Article XXV well before 2029. No, dying is TOO GOOD for him, he should live through every last indignity that’s coming to him.