For all the coy talk Trump almost certainly won’t run for President in 2028. I agree with those who say he keeps teasing the idea so he can raise (and pocket) donations for a potential run. That of course assumes Mother Nature doesn’t intervene, and let’s face it Trump’s health seems worse by the week. That leaves the question of who gets crowned the new MAGA King. Only a few months ago it seemed like VP J.D. Vance would inherit the ‘crown.’ Now it seems Donald Trump Jr. of all people might give him a run for his money.
Ok, now that you’re done laughing let’s take a look at where things were a few months ago and where they are now. As The Independent tells us quite a bit has changed. As the article tells us at the end of the summer even Trump was suggesting Vance was the logical choice to take over, being Vice President and so on. And Vance polled far ahead of any other wannabe GOP 2028 contenders including Junior
However history has a couple of lessons we should pay heed to. First, it’s two freaking years before the 2028 primaries will even begin. This far out plenty of “this is the guy for sure” candidates considered a “lock” for the nomination has gone down in flames, or just suddenly faded away. Think how spectacularly Ron DeSantis flamed out. Or Ted Cruz after Iowa back in 2016. And former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Remember him? Of course not because he was one of those who just seemed to fade from actual consideration despite all the early hype.
So there’s that. There’s also the fact that even a month can be a lifetime in politics. That’s especially true in Presidential politics with its particularly harsh and unblinking spotlight. Vance’s ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ personae was exposed as a lie long ago and that’s far from the only lie he’s going to have to deal with. His lack of management after initial benefactor Peter Theil kept setting him up in business and Vance failing will get plenty of attention too. Finally, despite his efforts he just doesn’t come across as “MAGA tough.” Oh, he’s tried but between his makeup and that eyeliner, and having a non-white wife and mixed race kids (unfair but that’s MAGA for you) simply isn’t being accepted as the heir apparent.
On the other hand while Don Jr. is seen even to MAGAs as a ‘coked out idiot’ he’s got the combative style MAGA goobers want. And he likes shooting stuff. MAGAs don’t do nuance and don’t get that he doesn’t actually ‘hunt’ they way they have to do. That he instead simply goes to some preserve and shoots some half tame animals. MAGAs THINK Junior is some he-man-tough-guy and that’s unlikely to change. It doesn’t matter that his own father thinks he’s a loser and always has been. Actually Junior is a loser because that’s exactly what Trump taught him to be!
More importantly as the headline to the linked article suggests Junior might in some twisted way allow Trump to run the country. Junior and brother Erik are in name at least the ones calling the shots at the Trump Org. Of course the reality is that while Trump doesn’t know much (never did) he knows Fredo 1 and Fredo 2 are idiots and would never, even entrust them with real decision making power. HE runs the show, and crazy as it sound he might think he could do the same with Junior serving as ‘President in name only.’ I think it’s a crazy theory and again it assumes Trump senior will still be alive and at least remember his own name come 2028.
However it’s clear that MAGA is going to have a new leader. As I said earlier even a few months ago Trump seemed to be, albeit with little enthusiasm endorsing Vance. Hence Vance’s lead over the rest of the GOP field:
The once-sceptic turned acolyte was the heir apparent, and in August, Trump went further than he had ever gone in suggesting his deputy was the “most likely” to succeed him. “In all fairness,” he said, “he’s the vice president.” That was sorted then. Vance was the shoo-in to inherit the Make America Great Again movement and march to the GOP nomination with the full, unambiguous blessing of the man who had remade the party in his name.
But in the brutal, unforgiving world of presidential politics, an opinion poll released at the end of last year showed that Vance’s lead to become the Republican nominee in 2028 was starting to shrink. The comfortable 20-point cushion he had held over his nearest rival in August had evaporated, and Trump World was buzzing about who was narrowing the gap: the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr.
Back in August Vance had a comfortable 36% of GOP voters saying he was their candidate for 2028. That’s twenty points better than second place Don Jr. had and at 16% Junior was the only other possibility even in single digits. With Trump’s ‘endorsement’ it seemed all but assured that in the months since he’s consolidate his lead and by now it would be a ‘done deal. Now that gap is gone.
Plenty more than the bit of speculation I wrote on why will be coming from a lot of people. Just remember what I said about candidates that two or three years out seemed inevitable only to stand helplessly by as one or more others pass them. Vance’s sugar daddy Theil doesn’t seem interested in investing on the level he did to buy Vance his Senate seat. Vance was the Heritage Foundation’s guy and heavily involved in Project 2025 but among GOP institutions facing internal warfare the Heritage Foundation is being raided of its actual brainpower by Mike Pence’s new think tank. I for one don’t see Pence throwing his weight behind Vance.
As for Don Jr. his delusions of grandeur just might be as crazy bigly as his father’s. He just might go for it and do so with Trump’s blessing. After all, as the linked article suggests Trump might figure he can still give the actual orders and let Junior sign them. Just thinking about a Vance vs. Junior showdown makes me smile.
You know what? If we are going to be ‘treated’ to the ghastly spectacle of UFC fights on the WH lawn come the 4th of July (and our nation’s 250th anniversary) why not have Vance and Junior have a go at each other? It would be a pathetic sight to be sure, but for folks like you and me it would be entertaining. Not just two middle-aged white dudes making fools of themselves, but MAGAs seeing them ‘fight’ like pro-baseball players and becoming disillusioned. Seriously though this could turn out to be THE political fight that will finally cripple the MAGA movement.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
