Military professionals often point out the secret to success is ‘Logistics, Logistics Logistics.’ In a similar vein political professionals know how important Getting Out the Vote is, so their mantra is ‘GOTV, GOTV GOTV.’ Having people support a given Party or candidate is one thing, but getting them to actually vote is more challenging than many realize. That’s why small fortunes are sometimes spent on Get Out the Vote (GOTV) efforts. However if voters on one side are discouraged, even ticked off (for whatever reason) at their side/candidate the difficult task of GOTV is even tougher. Apparently GOP (even MAGA) voter’s enthusiasm is down (‘bigly’) and it’s GOP internal polling saying so!
According to an article from Buzznews there’s a worrisome indication that their biggest problem for the midterms. It’s not stronger than normal turnout from Democrats they’re worried about, but rather that a startling percentage of their base voters won’t bother voting, vote third Party or even (horrors!) vote for a Democrat! It’s often been said (including by me) that an awful lot of races, both statewide and at the (Congressional) District (not to mention state legislative races) are going to be close. And more importantly close enough that as little as four or five percent of either side’s voters staying home/not voting can tip the race. That’s why the linked article’s reporting GOP pollster’s warning that ONE IN FIVE of their core voters might not vote is stunning.
Yet the fact is their own polling has both pollsters and conservative groups increasingly worried. Enough that they’re warning they face an significant enthusiasm gap heading into the midterms. Again I want to make the point that what their polling is tell them is that rather than surging Democratic support their biggest challenge will be getting their own reliable voters to actually vote! Â
According to an internal analysis conducted by Americans for Prosperity Action (AFP Action), roughly one in five dependable Republican voters in several key battleground states are considering either staying home or voting for a Democratic candidate. Party strategists view that finding as one of the most concerning indicators of the election cycle.
‘One in five?” That’s 20 freaking percent! Remember me saying as few as five percent of GOP/MAGA voters sitting out (or voting third Party) in a given race could tip many of them? If Republican operatives are worried twenty percent will either sit the election out, vote third Party or in some (probably not many) cases even vote for a Democrat(s) it’s easy to see why they are so concerned. It also explains something else that’s getting more attention.
Republicans have long engaged in systematic voter suppression but it’s been ramping up to a whole new level this year. I have to wonder if what’s being reported now is something that GOP political operatives have been looking at since the beginning of Trump’s term, knowing what he intended to do (tariffs/trade wars) and the negative impact it would have even on MAGA voters. The economy is always a major factor in elections, and even more so in off year ones when any sitting President’s Party usually takes a legislative hit and loses seats in Congress. With such a thin margin (in the House) to begin with it’s easy to see how the pros who unlike Trump can actually play (political) chess wanted to keep track of whether MAGA would stick with their Orange-Hued-Turn-God Emperor.
While the Senate remains at best a ‘maybe’ for Democrats by early this year it moved from unlikely (for Democrats) to ‘with the right set of circumstances possible’ despite a second straight cycle of an unfavorable map. Still, as it became clear Trump’s economic policies were the disaster everyone but Team Trump knew they would be the GOP political pros kept an eye on the Senate, sort of a ‘just in case’ thing. And warned Susie Wiles, a pro herself that Trump often listens to who in turn told Trump to ramp up what he already wanted to do. As in everything under the sun to prevent Democrats from either being able to cast votes, or ensure those votes wouldn’t be counted.
None of this is news to anyone reading this. The GOP pros knew Democrats would react and their only question was whether our side would become discouraged and give up or get even more motivated. It’s clear it was the latter, but as stated above it seems they’ve allowed for this possibility. Hence the ramped up efforts at voter suppression.
Meanwhile conservative outrage over Team Trump not releasing the Epstein files remained something of a concern. However they bet, correctly it seems that as we got into the heart of the campaign it wouldn’t be a decisive issue for their voters. However Trump went and REALLY pissed off his voters with his Iran war. Sure, some were strongly supportive at the start, thinking it would be like Venezuela. Over and done before you know it. However it quickly became apparent this was going to be a prolonged war.
Worse, an economy built on Trump’s tariffs and trade wars that was already causing people to struggle got worse right away. Worse still, even MAGAs seem to believe the (accurate) reporting that if the war ended tomorrow prices won’t be coming down anytime soon. I believe that GOP political pros got really worried after the first month of the Iran war. Trump clearly didn’t know what the hell he was doing. And with a dipsh!t Secretary of Defense like Hegseth who purged the Pentagon of lots of people who actually knew stuff Trump was stuck. His ego/pride wouldn’t allow him to settle the whole thing, and he’d just keep the war going rather than admit he’d screwed up.
So it sure looks likely that since late spring these GOP pollsters have been looking hard at how the combination of Epstein (not as bad as they’d once feared), high prices (along with less access to health care) and the war would play with the GOP base, and especially Trump’s MAGAs. I don’t think what’s being reported by Buzznews is some new thing. No, it’s been being measure via internal polling for several months now. One in five, TWENTY PERCENT of the GOP base sitting out the election (or voting third Party) at first glance seems batsh!t crazy. However I again say these pollsters have quietly been looking at the situation for quite a while now.
To reiterate, GOP strategists claim Democrats aren’t outperforming (at least to way greater than normal) historical expectations. Instead they say the real problem is going to be Republican turnout. Right now the data is telling them it appears to be falling – below the levels the party has traditionally relied on, at least in competitive elections. Worse, it’s not due to a single issue:
Field organizers say economic concerns dominate nearly every conversation with voters. Persistent inflation, rising grocery bills, housing costs and other everyday expenses continue to frustrate many reliable Republican voters, who increasingly identify the economy as their highest priority heading into the midterm
Campaign operatives also report that ongoing military tensions involving Iran have intensified those economic concerns. Many Republican voters reportedly associate the administration’s foreign policy decisions with higher energy costs, continued inflation and weaker real wage growth, further contributing to dissatisfaction within the party’s traditional coalition.
That doesn’t even take into account the Epstein files, an issue that might have new legs with Todd Blanche being confirmed as AG. He’s still playing games and the questions are starting up again, especially around his kid gloves treatment of Ghislaine Maxwell. There’s also the slush fund with the part that watching primary election coverage has caught my eye. GOP voters aren’t so bothered about giving taxpayer money to the insurrectionist traitors of Jan. 6, but rather the tax amnesty for Trump and his entire family. Keep an eye on that in the weeks ahead!
The linked article makes note of something else that isn’t sitting well with even conservative voters. Trump won’t let go of the 2020 stuff. The news is filled with his time being spent mostly on his vanity projects. And he keeps embarrassing himself by forcing DOJ to initiate bogus prosecutions of political enemies – and LOSING in court. In short they feel his attention is focused on the wrong things:
Republican pollsters also see a growing disconnect between party leadership and everyday voters. While Donald Trump continues emphasizing disputes surrounding the 2020 election, many congressional Republicans believe voters are far more interested in hearing concrete proposals to lower prices, strengthen wages and improve economic conditions.
When you consider all this it makes sense that the GOP pollsters are getting the data they’re getting. I’m quite certain they hoped their warnings wouldn’t become public. However it’s likely that Trump and his inner circle who live in their own fantasy world refuse to believe it. Trump doesn’t always listen to Susie Wiles! So an ever increasing number of important people in the GOP are being warned, meaning at some point someone (or more than one) would start telling journalists.
In the end I have a hard time, even though I explained there’s good reason to trust the “One in Five” assessment that it’s a stretch. And there’s still some time to work on that. However one last time I’ll remind you that it wouldn’t take anywhere near that to tip a lot of races our way. I’ve been hoping for say five percent of regular American GOP voters to sit things out this year. Given what the GOP pollster’s internal polling is saying I think that’s fairly likely.
Better yet, while I think twenty percent isn’t going to happen TEN percent is a pretty realistic possibility. THAT friends will make a huge difference (as in flipping the Senate) IF we do our part. So if you aren’t already doing so get to work. Talk to people. If they aren’t registered to vote help them do so. Do what you can to help our own GOTV efforts. Make a plan to ensure you’re able to cast your own vote.
I’ve voted by mail the last couple of times but this fall I want to make sure my ballot is actually fed into the scanner. That means going through the hassle of voting in person which is a problem due to my disability. However I’ve already got a fellow veteran willing to drive me to the polling station. He too wants to vote in person to make sure no MAGA asshat infiltrated into the election system can get a ballot tossed out for “reasons.” My point is figure out NOW how to make sure your vote is cast and counted. AND get others to do the same.
Friends, I know everybody begs you for money. I promise you that, of all the outlets bugging you for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest-working. We’re a bunch of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. But the rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the ability to continue our quest to tell the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
