It’s shaping up to be quite the day in the U.S. House of Representatives. As I write this I see Trump is having some Congress Critters over to the WH to bully them into quickly passing the monstrosity of an economic assault on average and poor Americans today. Or tomorrow I guess. It remains to be seen whether Trumpty will get his way as a LOT of House Republicans have looked on in dismay at what the Senate did with what they’d sent over.
Whether we are talking about the House or the Senate, the bulk of Republicans have ‘issues’ with what Trump calls a ‘Big Beautiful Bill’. I call it a FUBBB (F**king Ugly Bad Big Bill) but whatever you call it there are factions of Republicans large enough to kill it (if they stick to their guns) albeit for different reasons. The main two reasons that emerged that caused the House version to only pass by one vote, and the same in the Senate (with VP Vance having to cast the tie-breaker) is this: Some don’t think the cuts go far enough, and others think they go too far.
Add in the fact that plenty of credible polling shows even MAGAs in red states don’t like what’s in the legislation and Congress Critters in both chambers have reason to be spooked. As I’ve said in prior articles even TRUMP is spooked, as he publicly cheerleaded yet also warned Congress ‘not to go too far.’ Talk about whistling past the graveyard! Still, the process is inching forward to giving Trumpty what he wants, or sort of (so it now seems) thinks he wants. The old adage about being careful what you wish for comes to mind. However with things back in the House’s hands according to Axios GOPers there are “rattled” by their situation:
Thune (R-S.D.) lost three of his own members on his way to a 51-50 win, and he has left House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) with a “non-starter,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told reporters.
One GOP lawmaker told Axios’ Andrew Solender that Johnson is short “well over 20” votes.
That last part is what’s going to make it a helluva day. As the linked article states, Thune might have broken the House’s spirit (well the GOP half) after having lost to them in a previous fight. What he got passed in the Senate are deeper spending cuts, longer tax cuts AND a bigger increase in the deficit. That’s why I say different factions of Republicans have reason to oppose this mess and for different reasons. Speaker Moses Mikey Johnson is said to be ‘unhappy’ with what the Senate did to the bill he sent over (which again I note only passed by a single vote) because he can’t afford to lose many votes.
There are hard core deficit hawks who HATE the amount of spending still in the bill and HATE the increases in the federal debt even more. There’s more than enough to kill the bill. There are a couple dozen Representatives in competitive districts that can kiss their seat goodbye if it passes. Again, that’s more than enough to kill the bill. Plenty more are alarmed at the prospect of suddenly ‘only’ finding a once comfortable seat suddenly becoming competitive. For all of these folks the question is whether they can survive a Trump engineered primary. On the other hand we now have Elon Musk promising to spend some of his billions to primary anyone who votes FOR the bill! Here’s a question for them: If Musk follows through will Trump help them financially via his own PACs? Take a minute to laugh over that one…
At the heart of all this is something I wrote about yesterday when discussing Murkowski caving in to Trump. Those 2017 budget busting tax cuts. Tax cuts that favor the wealthy are part of Republican DNA. And more than anything else allowing the Trump tax cuts to expire (which will happen if this bill doesn’t pass) is like asking them to stab themselves in the heart with an embalmer’s trocar. However the public has finally caught on to the original Reagan LIE about ‘supply side’ tax cuts. They not only don’t pay for themselves via economic growth, they set new records for federal budget deficits and the national debt.
That means somehow paying for them and conservatives have fought what they call “entitlement” programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid from the time they were first proposed. Again however the public, even a lot of MAGAs have come to understand these are programs they’ve paid into their entire working lives. That they are NOT ‘entitlements’ but earned benefits and folks don’t like conservatives trying to take benefits they EARNED away. It’s no wonder even in red states polling on this bill is in the crapper.
Worse for the GOP, not just bit rural/small town swaths of purple or blue states are out there but entire red states have communities still served by hospitals that will have to close due to the Medicaid cuts in the bill. Just in time for the effects to be felt in next year’s midterms. I have no sympathy for Republicans. THEY have put themselves in this vise and created an automatic mechanism for it to start squeezing them. Their political careers can pop like grapes for all I care.
All this brings me to why this might be a now or never moment for Trump. He wanted to ‘bum rush’ this thing through before Memorial Day. The House couldn’t get it done but July 4 seemed like a nice, ‘plenty of time’ artificial deadline. Factor in Trump’s confidence in his PR savvy and salesmanship and there was plenty of time (he thought) to gain support with his base. Instead as I’ve noted the more people, even MAGAs learn the less they like what they see. AND they’ve been letting their Congress Critters know it!
Time, the simple and inexorable passage of time allows more and more scrutiny of just how badly this legislation will f**k over most Americans. That’s where the urgency to ‘Larry the Cable Guy Git-er-Done’ kicks in. Even Trumpty knows folks know this is a bad deal for anyone who isn’t rich. He doesn’t care, except the consequences even for his MAGAs will be felt before the midterms. He’s terrified over the prospect of Democrats being in control of Congress.
However Trumpy can’t help himself. His freaking EGO won’t allow him to admit he and his fellow Republicans need to scrap this proposal and start over. Hell, Trump’s very nature is to handle transactions individually. It’s why he’s a disaster in foreign relations because dealing the multi-lateral treaties is beyond his capability. He’s a one-thing-at-a-time guy and always has been. Dealing with extending his tax cuts as a stand alone thing is more in his wheelhouse. So is trying to cut Medicaid and other programs. One at a time. But he’s invested too much (so it seems) in this approach this one time and he just can’t back down. He can’t take the thought of people saying he’d LOST.
So here we are today with him furiously attempting to hammer reinforced steel round squares into round holes made of steel. Is he strong enough? Who knows? What I know, or at least strongly believe is that if this doesn’t get done this week the chances of this passing grow a little smaller with each passing week. It’s summer and the annual Congressional recess is looming.
It’s not an attractive one BUT it leaves Trump and the GOP an ‘out’ to this whole disaster. They can decide to say it’s important to get this right and that more time is needed. That July 4 was just some arbitrary deadline and who cares when it gets done as long as it gets done “right?” During that extra time they will catch unshirted hell from constituents and the GOP leaders will quietly meet with Trump and suggest he do what has worked for him before – break things up into single issues and push them through THAT way. They can even point to his tax cut as proof of his ability. Like I said that’s the driving force behind what’s going on now – preserving that tax cut.
Trump might well be able to sell that, even to deficit hawks in the House. He can issue one of his patented statements about announcing how he’ll pay for it will be coming “soon”, or in “two weeks.” Whether this will get any discussion at the WH remains to be seen. If it weren’t for the prospect of Democrats getting control of Congress in the midterms he wouldn’t care what happens to ANY Republican Congress Critter. They know it, and he knows they know it. THEY know he knows they know it.
So there they are, facing off with political guns aimed and fingers on the trigger. We’ll just have to wait and see if the shooting starts or someone holsters their weapon and causes everyone else to gulp and do the same.
*************************
We thank all of you who have donated. You’re keeping this blog on the internet, believe me. One of the battles we fight is the inconstancy of ad revenue because politics in this country is so polarized and a lot of advertisers just seek to avoid the political. They’d rather advertise on food blogs and be safe, doughnuts before democracy. All we’re trying to do is stay in business because we believe the work is important. Thank you if you can assist. If we didn’t need it, we wouldn’t be asking. Ursula
Phuck them six ways to Sunday and twice on Mondays. No matter what these soulless pissants do…THEY WILL STILL BE RICH AND POWERFUL. Some poor black or brown single mom will get raped again by these phuckers. By the way Lisa…YOU LOOK LIKE A MORON STARING AT THE REPORTER WHO ASKED FOR YOUR SORRY EXCUSE FOR VOTING YES. As a prostitute, with only one client, your prune face won’t sell your ass on the street. Stick with your current john. I hope a grizzly catches up with you soon. Torn apart for food would be a just outcome for YOU starving children in your comfort. Not sure a bear would bother with a rancid raisin like you.
What amazes me is that she opposed something major years back and got primaried. So she ran as an Independent and still kept her seat. That’s damned near impossible to do but she pulled it off. She could have done it again, and even let it be known she was thinking about declaring herself an Independent again. Given this bill is as unpopular in Alaska as it is everwhere else she could have assured herself of keeping her seat. But she caved, and I believe torched her chances of staying in the Senate as an Indepdendent. Maybe even as a GOPer!