Another ‘Hurricane FAKE NEWS’ is forming in Trump World. It will have all the usual aspects of all-caps posts rambling, nonsensical statements from Trump. Oh, and all-caps screeds on Truth Social. Since Elon and Trump’s bromance has (for now) blown up he might even get back on twitter, or rather X or as I call is Xitter (the X pronounce Chinese style – sh) since Musk is firing broadsides at the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill.’Â However the official CBO score it out and over the decades have proven good at what they do. Their projection is that what Trump wants will add 2.4 TRILLION to the federal debt.
What Trump hopes will be his signature legislation is already facing major headwinds. It only passed the House by a single vote and many Republicans only went along counting on their counterparts in the Senate to fix the mess Moses Mikey Johnson put in front of them. It’s been noted by people (including me, right here on Politizoom) that there are GOP factions in both chambers that have “Not if THIS is part of it” deal-breaker objections. Trump wants everything wrapped up into one piece of legislation but these competing interests can’t be resolved. Something is going to have to give.
We will be hearing a lot from the deficit hawks in the days and weeks to come. This short, article from NBC News lays out the basics of why. There were already earlier projections the bill would add $2.4 trillion to the debt. So GOP Congress Critters and the WH set about addressing that matter knowing how thin their margins were in both the Senate and House and that there were easily enough deficit hawks to tank the whole thing.
However as I’ve said there are other groups, in particular lots of GOPers in swingy states or districts that know the Medicaid cuts will kill their chances next year. AND they wanted to throw voters a bone by increasing the SALT (state and local taxes) deduction created in Trump’s first term. So they worked and worked on resolving things. What resulted was an increase in the debt from where they’d started. So here’s where we are:
Overall, CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation found that over a 10-year period, the legislation would decrease revenues by $3.7 trillion, while cutting net spending by $1.3 trillion — for a total of $2.4 trillion in new red ink.
The legislation would also increase the number of people without health insurance by 9.1 million by 2034, CBO projected. That includes 7.8 million fewer covered due to the Medicaid changes.
Granted, after all that negotiation among themselves GOPers came up with a rather small increase from where they started. Still, you’d have expected they could have somehow come up with an equally small decrease, if only to make hollow claims of ‘victory.’ I don’t think even that would have satisfied the deficit hawks. One must keep in mind they, along with others have a larger agenda they’ve been working on for decades – eliminating Medicaid, privatizing Social Security and even Medicare. Not to mention other federal programs. We don’t hear the term “starve the beast” so much anymore but the sentiment is there, and also strong amongst conservatives.
Don’t even lose sight of the fact that despite multiple rounds of ‘supply side” (for the rich) tax cuts, each of which has exploded annual budgets and the federal debt a key element of this bill is yet another one. It would extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts (for the rich) and add some new stuff. Note that very first part of what I blocked out above. Simple arithmetic, the amount of lost revenues are more than twice the ‘savings’ of the devastating cuts proposed. Even a dumbass MAGA can see those numbers and that they don’t add up to anything good. In fact, they already have been seeing it which is why those GOPers willing to meet with constituents have been catching hell!
So where do things stand? Trump had desperately wanted to have the legislation signed before Memorial Day. One could make a case he wanted to have it to brag about for a holiday meant to honor those who unlike him served and sacrificed for this country. I think it was more basic – his team, and maybe even Trump himself could see how unpopular so much of what was in the bill was turning out to be and wanted to RUSH IT THROUGH before opposition could build.
Trump failed to get his way. I’d file that away in the back of your mind. Trump bullied but couldn’t bend Congressional Republicans to his will. Now the target date for the legislation to be signed is July 4. Trump and I suspect a lot of Republicans on the Hill are hoping the furor out there in the country including MAGA swaths of America will die down. Even if it does there will still be factions of Republicans on Capitol Hill at odds with each other.
Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ has turned out to be anything but. It’s a hot mess. So much so that new names are popping up like Big Ugly Bill. Personally, since my language has always been pretty salty in my personal life I think of it as Trump’s FUB. F**king Ugly Bill. Since he’s a f**king ugly excuse for a human being, both in appearance and character the acronym still holds – all you have to do is change the word “Bill” to “Bastard.”
Well, it remains to be seen whether this will pass in some form or falls apart. For all Musk’s threats it’s been noted (using that Supreme Court race in Wisconsin) that his ability to influence elections with money may not be what it was cracked up to be. Funding primary challenges to those who vote for Trump’s domestic agenda is starting to be seen as not as big a threat as it would have seemed a couple of months ago! I’m not about to make any predictions at this point. It’s still Trump’s GOP so he might wind up getting what he wants. But from where I sit all bets are off and he might not. All I know for sure is it will be one bumpy ride. So batten down the hatches and board up the windows because an epic Trumpian tweet/truth storm is a coming.
***From Ursula*** Zoomers, if you’re able to contribute in any way, we could use help. I’ve been ill and recuperating from a brief hospitalization. Times are tough for political commentary to begin with, and that’s been the case since November 5. Half the country is in a major depression. But we need to keep on keeping on. This too shall pass and there will be a brighter, post-Trump day if we work for it. Please join us and help if you can. Thank you. Ursula
Big Beautiful Bill? More like Big Steaming Turd.
Elon could still fund primaries but would have to check his ego and do it silently.
Not sure he can do that, being the attention whore that he is.
you can drop the ing. fuck ugly bill, fuck ugly bastard.