Now, now, who screwed up? Donald was all calmed down and ready for bed (it’s past ten p.m. in his time zone as I write) but some body had to go and upend the apple cart. Somehow Donald got hold of a podcast or who knows what, and the fact that his buggy bumper bunker buster may not have done the job and all may have been for nought is too much for him. So he got out the phone and started screaming away with his thumbs.
Bullshit is more like it. Here’s the reality of the situation:Trump and Pete Hegseth both claim that the three sites bombed were destroyed and therefore the Iranian nuclear program was destroyed but if you ask Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine, he says “I think the Bomb Damage Assessment is still pending and it would be way too early for me to comment on what may or may not still be there.” So who’s right, hyperbolic Trump or his military general Joint Chief’s Chair? Right now I would listen to Caine.
But here’s where it get dicey: According to the Times of Israel: “Iranian state media confirms that the Islamic Republic’s Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo nuclear sites were attacked by ‘enemy strikes.’ The IRIB state broadcaster claims the sites along with their enriched uranium stockpiles were evacuated beforehand.”
Yes. Because what Trump isn’t telling MAGA, is that “Amwaj Media (covers Gulf countries) confirmed other reports that the US notified Iran ahead of time: “A high-ranking Iranian political source confirmed that the Trump admin on June 21 conveyed that it did not seek an all-out confrontation, and only intended to strike the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites. Importantly, the senior source also confirmed that the targeted sites were evacuated, with ‘most’ of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium kept in secure locations.” This is from Meidas Touch, and you can hit the blue hot link above for an excellent and comprehensive report.
“Given that Iran is said to have received prior notice along with a private communication from the US that it does not seek a broader conflict, it could be that Trump seeks a repeat of the events of Jan. 2020. The latter entailed a largely symbolic Iranian ballistic missile attack on American bases in Iraq over Trump’s authorization of the assassination of then-Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.”
Trump loves to go on about that because that assassination fits his tough guy persona. And now he’s claiming that he “obliterated” the three uranium enrichment sites, but the scientists and the uranium may have all walked out the door. This is not what Trump had planned but it is what happened. And here are what experts in war are saying about the situation as it presently stands.
Tom Clarke, Science & Tech Editor for Sky News: “Precisely shaping uranium metal and making shaped explosive charges to crush it in the right way to achieve ‘criticality’, the spark for the sub-atomic chain reaction that releases the terrifying energy in a nuclear explosion, is the element Iran has been working on for two decades.”
“But unlike the industrial processes needed to enrich uranium, these later steps can be carried out in laboratory-sized facilities. Easier to pack up and move, and easier to hide from prying eyes. Given that it’s understood Iran already moved enriched uranium out of Fordow ahead of the US strike, it’s far from certain that Iran has, in fact, lost its ability to make a bomb. And while the strikes may have delayed the logistics, it’s possible they’ve emboldened a threatened Iran to intensify its warhead-making capability if it does still have one.”
Fox Chief Nat Sec Correspondent Jennifer Griffin: “I am told by experts that the underground tunnel at Isfahan is a MUCH harder target than Fordow and it is not clear whether the Tomahawks were able to destroy it. ‘There is no way they got in that tunnel It’s deeper than Qom – and harder rock,’ well placed source tells Fox. IAEA inspectors reported multiple times it was used for storage of UF6. (UF6 was one of the large precursor materials to make enriched uranium, but there was no enrichment going on inside of that mountain.) But it’s important that the UF6 (uranium hexafluoride) be accounted for and eventually removed. Isfahan is where Iran also manufactured centrifuges.”
Counter-terrorism expert Alex Plitsas: “It took Iran 5 days to respond with ballistic missiles after the US killed Qassem Solemani in a strike. Iran may take its time again.”
Intelligence and foreign policy analyst Malcolm Nance: “If Trump thinks this is one and done, he’s fooling himself. This war has only just begun.”
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev: “What have the Americans accomplished with their nighttime strikes on 3 nuclear sites in Iran? Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage. The enrichment of nuclear material and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons, will continue. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads. At this rate, Trump can forget about the Nobel Peace Prize. What a way to kick things off, Mr. President. Congratulations!”
Historian Timothy Snyder: “5 things to remember about war: 1. Many things reported with confidence in the first hours and days will turn out not to be true 2. Whatever they say, the people who start wars are often thinking chiefly about domestic politics 3. The rationale given for a war will change over time, such that actual success or failure in achieving a named objective is less relevant than one might think 4. Wars are unpredictable 5. Wars are easy to start and hard to stop.” […]
Tom Nichols, retired professor from the US Naval War College: “Trump is saying that all the sites have been completely obliterated and that there could be more strikes, without knowing whether those sites have truly been obliterated, and after his White House promised no more strikes to Iran through backchannels.” And that was before Trump’s Sunday night tweet just a while ago. And here’s the bottom line:
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi: “Last week, we were in negotiations with the US when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy. This week, we held talks with the E3/EU when the US decided to blow up that diplomacy. What conclusion would you draw? To Britain and the EU High Rep, it is Iran which must ‘return’ to the table. But how can Iran return to something it never left, let alone blew up?”
The Times of India: “Iranian State TV aired a bold warning to US President Donald Trump – ‘Mr. Trump, you started it, we will end it.’”
Intelligence Committee Ranking Member Jim Himes: “There is another worse option, which is that the Iranians go silent for the next 3-6 months during which time they assemble a weapon. We don’t know if they managed to move the uranium.“
Trump didn’t do anything heroic, he just opened Pandora’s Box. And now we wait for the return punch. And we may wait a long time. And then? BOOM! And “boom” might translate any number of ways.
Donnie TACO never learned that nobody wants to do what a bully wants them to do, not even in the schoolyard. Congress needs to step up and rid us of this festering pustule of a President.