Yesterday we ran a piece here on how Trump is hiding the fact that the supply chains will flatline later this month. Almost nobody read it. So whether that translates as people already know what’s coming (which I hope is the case) or people don’t believe that we’re headed into a second COVID-level eonomic frenzy, I cannot say. But again, we find out that Trump aides are stockpiling toilet paper, supplies, food and even cash, and why would that be the case if we weren’t facing some imminent crisis? What do they know that we don’t?
Two Trump administration officials and a Trump aide tell Rolling Stone that they have done some stockpiling of their own in recent weeks or months, and that they know others working in Republican politics — inside and outside of the administration — who are doing the same. One of the Trump officials says they have already run to Target to bulk-buy toilet paper, some types of food, and other household supplies.
When asked why they’re doing this, the Trump aide — who says they and their partner have done similar household-supply hoarding lately, and are also “stashing cash” reserves in their D.C.-area home — simply replies: “Because it would be stupid not to!” The aide adds that they still believe in Trump’s tariffs regime, though, citing the supposed advantage of “short-term pain” in exchange for long-term “prosperity.”
Stashing cash is sobering. That makes me wonder if there’s going to be some issue with the banks and getting purchases and deliveries honored, like normal. If Trump throws things that far out of whack, he is toast. Well do I remember the gas rationing and lines in 1978, which sunk Jimmy Carter in 1980. I remember a gas station owner in Beverly Hills coming up to me in my car (I was driving a 1977 Honda Civic at the time) and telling me that my car would be the last car to receive gas that day. But in exchange, he wanted to put a sign on the back of my car saying “No Gas” and have me explain the situation to anybody who would ask. I took the offer, rather than attempt to roll into another station. And people behind me were pissed, let me tell you.
The trend is symptomatic of a larger panic taking place within the Trump-dominated Republican elite. A significant share of the GOP luminaries on Capitol Hill, members of the Republican donor class, and some top-ranking officials in the Trump administration are privately (and sometimes publicly) extremely fearful that Trump’s trade warfare is going to throttle the U.S. economy and further drive down his and the party’s approval ratings ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
But because Trump commands a towering personality cult among the Republican base and rules over his party with catty malice, these GOP bigwigs mostly have to just go along with it and smile. They’ll tell the American people one thing (Trump’s got this, they’ll claim), and behave privately another way (hoarding toilet tissue for themselves, and occasionally trying to talk the president off his Peter Navarro-shaped ledge).
In the corridors of power within Trump’s own administration, there is a growing belief that the Chinese government indeed has the upper hand in this stage of the trade standoff, and that Trump is strategically flailing and looking for easy wins that don’t actually exist, multiple sources with knowledge of the matter attest. Many in the GOP’s upper echelons are keeping their fingers crossed that the president will find some outs and declare imaginary victory before his economic war inflicts too much damage on the average American voter.
Nobody — not even Trump, it seems — knows how long this is going to last. The American public has been trying to tell the president that they won’t put up with it for very long.
“U.S. consumer confidence plummets to Covid-era low as trade war stokes anxiety,” The Associated Press reported on Tuesday, referencing the last time Trump was in office overseeing a crisis that also involved numerous Americans hoarding toilet paper, amid a supply chain crisis. (A similar supply shock is on its way.)
You’re seeing it again, in black and white. Yesterday we cited to Talking Points Memo. Today we are citing to Rolling Stone and they are citing the Associated Press. Be smart. Get yourself set up with cleaning supplies, toilet paper, tissues, any and every thing that may be the result of supply chain interruptions. Fresh food you can’t do much about. I suppose it is possible that Trump will starve us to death, but let’s try not to worry about that for the moment.
And make no mistake: once it all starts to hit the fan, Trump will claim that it’s Joe Biden’s fault and/or it’s the work of “negative criminals” like pollsters, whom he wants to criminally prosecute. We are going to find ourselves living in a 1984-For-Real kind of a mediasphere, where the sitting *president* tells you that everything is either fine or it’s Biden’s fault, via his White House Wire propaganda blog, and he’ll make it all wonderful in the very near future. Except things are only going to get worse.
“If we continue down this path, I think it’s going to be pretty bleak for the economy,” says Marc Short, who once served as Trump’s White House legislative affairs director and as a top aide to Mike Pence. “There’s likely going to be significant job losses and potential supply problems in your stores. I do think the president is very adept at claiming victory and reversing his policies, so there’s a question about how long this actually goes. But if you look at the data on trucking and shipping right now, I think by the end of May, you’re going to see more shortages and supply disruptions.”
Short continues: “On Tuesday morning, there was data that showed how the monthly trade deficit ballooned to one of the highest levels ever, and the tariffs in theory were about fixing that deficit. But it’s only gotten worse. I think this could mean a lot of Americans — not just White House staff — are out there ordering supplies ahead of what they expect to be a rougher period. Thankfully we live in a relatively free economy that’s dynamic, but in the past we [in the Republican Party] have criticized central planners on the left. But I think there are currently central planners in this White House who think they can control what Americans buy and sell through their trade policies.”
He concludes: “I don’t think it works.”
Expect things to get crazy. We have warned you and we will continue to keep an eye on all these developments. Bear in mind that we have something worse than a global pandemic to deal with this time, we have a barking mad lunatic in the White House who lies like other people breathe.
From https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busiest-us-ports-see-big-drop-in-chinese-freight-vessel-traffic.html
“For the week ending May 3, the number of freight vessels leaving China and headed to the Southern California ports, the main U.S. ports receiving Chinese freight and other Asian trade, is down 29% week-over-week, according to Port Optimizer, a tracking system for ships. Year-over-year, the data shows a 44% drop in vessels scheduled to arrive the week of May 4-May 10.
This data is updated on a daily basis based on the vessel manifests declaring the port destination. These vessels are either scheduled to leave Asia or are already on the water and headed to these ports.
Twelve vessels are scheduled to come in this week, down from 22 the week of April 20. Measured in shipping containers, a total of 62,568 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) are arriving the week of May 4-May 10, versus 120,608 TEUs as recently as the week of April 20-April 26.
The fallout from the ocean freight slowdown is beginning to hit ground transport linked to ports.
“We are at a tipping point on the West Coast,” said Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics. “Looking at how many truck loads are available versus trucks, we’ve seen a precipitous drop, over 700,000 loads have evaporated nationally in the past week compared to two weeks prior,” he said. ”
So about half the number of containers that used to come in will now be coming in. And then even less will come in after that.
All those truck drivers that voted for Trump might be feeling a little bit foolish now that reality thunders into their lives displacing the rhetoric and lies of Mr Trump – and they no longer have enough containers to carry.
FAFO indeed.
Though, of course, they’ll try blaming Biden. Even though we’re over 3 months into the Trump regime.
The first signs of empty shelves would show up where price-sensitive imports dominate the shelf — like toys, games, and budget home goods, in addition to apparel. These are the canaries in the coal mine of a disrupted supply chain.
Toys and seasonal kids’ goods, including back-to-school items, will disappear first because of the shortened lead times and the timing of tariffs.
Fast fashion and apparel — basics, tees, leggings, socks, and some kids’ clothing — would follow. There is often fast turnover on apparel, and thin margins mean low buffer stock.
The last time we saw empty shelves like this it was because of Covid.
Now, it’s all Trump’s fault.
The one man pandemic.
I don’t know about slow boats or no boats from China but I had the thought that Pfizer manufactures and delivers Viagra from Ireland, within the EC and subject to tariffs. As a ressult prices will inevitably perk up leading to less perkiness among its consumers. This will result in, among other things, morale drooping among MAGA males. Tariffs hitting where it really hurts.
🤬 BFD!! I started hoarding toilet paper on Nov.6! I knew that whenever the supply lines get cut, a feature of Trump administrations, I could make do with a lot of shortages…not TP! I also started early because I didn’t want to be one of the people hoarding during the emergency when others were being deprived! I hope that my hoard will be enough! 🤞🤞
With the expected disruption, protests will ramp up and he’ll declare martial law which may be the point all along. No elections then.