Well this is an interesting development although I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised. If you follow NASA and space exploration you know we are working to land Americans on the moon again in the coming years. I should add so is China which estimates doing so by 2030. It might not be at the intensity of the “Space Race” of the 1960s and the Cold War but China beating us wouldn’t do much for our standing in the world as a leader in science and technology. In any case a key component of Artemis System that will get the job done is the HUGE rocket known as the Space Launch System. Or SLS for short.
It’s been in development since 2011 and there have been the delays one would expect from a new system this massive and powerful. Still, the kinks have been worked out and SLS was used to send an unmanned mission on an uncrewed lunar mission in late 2022. The Orion capsule safely returned to earth. Priceless data was collected and work has proceeded on preparing for a crewed mission. There is a lot more additional proving of the SLS although it’s on solid footing now. Still, the news coming out of Mar a Lago is that Trump is considering cancelling the SLS. According to this article from Phys.org it’s a ’50-50′ thing at the moment.
Naturally in addition to why this is even on the table the bigger question is what, if anything happens next when it comes to landing on the moon later this decade? Well, Mr. Dickhead Rocket (in case you’re reading this Elon – you’re following us on Bluesky) I’m sure has his grubby paws all over this. For more than one reason in fact. So let’s take a look, shall we? That there are challenges to be overcome to make a moon landing in the years ahead is undeniable. There are three major (huge) components of the Artemis System. The SLS, the Orion Crew Capsule and the Starship System that will actually land astronauts on the moon. The Artemis 1 mission I mentioned showed both the SLS and Orion components are ‘on track.’ SLS is manufactured by Boeing. Orion by a partnership between Lockheed Martin and the European Space Agency. And the Starship system by Elon Musk’s Space X. Guess which one is behind schedule?
To be fair, I think Space X will get Starship reliable in the next two or three years. What the public sees as “failures” are actually common for testing such incredibly complex machines as we and other countries learned well before I was even born. The U.S. just has been more open about what’s going on and showing both success and failures than other countries. But in the end these things are made reliable enough to put people, astronauts on them and send them out into space and be awfully damned sure we’ll get them back home okay. But Starship isn’t ready.
In the meantime planning has been underway for the Artemis 2 mission which would send a crewed Orion spacecraft into lunar orbit but not land. Just like we did with Apollo. One step at a time, albeit hugely expensive steps. So, in theory (and again in my view likelihood) even with delays the whole Artemis System should be able to land an American crew on the moon before the end of this decade and bring them home safe & sound. More importantly it will set things up to do what we didn’t with Project Apollo, keep going back again and again. And perhaps even turn the moon into a base for launching explorations of other places.
So what’s Musk’s problem? HE is nucking futs about going to Mars. The moon means nothing to him. He wants ALL the resources devoted to his own ‘bigly’ dream of colonizing Mars and he’s impatient. Gutting the budget for moon exploration and redirecting that money to his Mars dream would do two things he wants and wants badly. To be ‘the face’ of our claiming Mars by being the first country to land people there. And second make a f**kton of money for Space X.
I also think there’s another aspect to this. EGO. The Artemis System includes two major components from NON Space X sources. Worse, those two components which I’ve talked about are progressing well towards meeting the stated goal of landing on the moon well before the end of the decade. I think Musk can’t stand the idea of sharing the glory. He wants the whole kit-and-kaboodle to be Space X!
So I think Musk has been whispering in Trump’s ear that a moon landing before China simply isn’t possible. That they will do what Russia did during the moon race and pull off a big surprise mission. We got embarrassed more than once with announcing a big mission only to see the Russians pull it off first. It wasn’t till Apollo 8 and the first crewed mission to the moon we got in front and stayed there. (For once WE surprised THEM) Musk can spin a tale along the lines of ‘So what if China lands on the moon? We can brag we did it six decades ago! But we can beat them and everyone else to Mars and THAT can be your space legacy. YOU Mr. Trump can out JFK freaking JFK!’
Anyone think Trump wouldn’t eat up that helping of bullshit with a spoon? Oh but there’s more. This will involved massive sums of money. A whole new round of government contracts that will be opaque enough for all manner of grift. All Musk has to do is pay Trump his grift, his fee and that’s that.
We’ll have to see what happens with Congress if Trump actually goes for this stunt. One thing about NASA since early on is they knew to spread those govt. contracts around. Sure, there were the HUGE ones but also many smaller ones that reached into communities and Congressional districts all across this country. NASA has been one helluva jobs program since it was created. Yes, a lot of new contracts could be awarded but it makes for a lot of uncertainty with an electorate that’s already in a pissy mood. Add in that Trump will clearly try to reward some people and screw over others and this could turn into a big hot mess.
The sad thing is that a quite realistic chance of doing something the world will marvel over will be lost. From where I sit, despite the linked article suggesting Musk may be able to get his Starship booster into a configuration that can do a lunar mission it doesn’t seem to me like he’s interested in doing so. He’s got ‘Mars on the Mind’ if you will. By convincing Trump to cancel the SLS he can get the new administration to focus on Mars, make himself a ton more money AND be pretty much in control of the U.S. use of space.
How and why we got to where one person, a private citizen could be in the position Musk is in and have so much control over our national security is a much longer subject. But killing the SLS and reconfiguring NASA as Musk desires will make an already bad situation that much worse.
Oh the irony of the poster-child for the failure of late stage capitalism, Boeing, being punted aside for the other poster-child for the other side of the failure of late stage capitalism, muskrat.