Fertilizer is essential to raise good crops. Every country that has a large agricultural production needs lots of it. And they certainly need a good supply and at an affordable cost during planting season which is NOW. For all the talk about oil tankers backed up in the Persian Gulf due to Trump’s war and the effect on world oil markets what most people aren’t thinking about is all the cargo ships loaded with fertilizer that’s needed in an awful lot of countries. Lack of it, or the increased cost of what’s available is a ticking agricultural bomb that will explode come harvest time. Just before the midterm elections.
Oil isn’t exactly a ‘sexy’ thing to talk about but people buy gas all the time and readily understand how the ups and downs of the price of a barrel of crude oil affects what they pay at the pump. Most who aren’t farmers, even a lot of folks who live in rural/small-town America where there are lots of farms don’t readily understand the nuances of fertilizer supply and demand. They DO however notice increase prices at the grocery store, especially in the past year. There is to an extent a general awareness that the cost of fuel makes it cost more for farms to do what they do. AND that most of the farm machines run on diesel which is significantly more costly than gasoline.
So people already know higher costs at the grocery store aren’t coming down anytime soon due to this war. Maybe not at all until sometime next year, and even then not to where they were before Trump got back in the White House. However as you by now are assuming the availability of fertilizer and/or the cost of what’s on hand is also going to affect what it costs to put food on the table. Both producing it (for farms) and for consumers buying it. I don’t like having to lay this out for you but you should know it just the same. This article from The Associated Press explains might not be fun to read but you really should because from the start it speaks truths that we are all going to have to face:
HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Farmers around the world are feeling the squeeze of the Iran war. Gas prices have shot up and fertilizer supplies are waning due to Tehran’s near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli bombing.
The fertilizer shortage is putting the livelihood of farmers in developing countries — already troubled by rising temperatures and erratic weather systems — further at risk, and could lead to people everywhere paying more for food.
The poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere rely on fertilizer imports from the Gulf, and the shortage comes just as planting season begins, said Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Program.
“In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season. In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food prices next year.”
The AP points out that while about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz an eye-popping ONE-THIRD of the world’s fertilizer does. This is critical for many countries and even countries like ours, China and others are also affect. Raj Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas puts it simply and bluntly – “The planting season is now. The fertilizer isn’t there.” Worse, it’s not just nitrogen fertilizer being held up but another critical (at this time of year) item:
Phosphate supplies, which support root development, are also under pressure. Saudi Arabia exports about a fifth of the world’s phosphate fertilizer, and the region exports more than 40% of the world’s sulfur, a key ingredient and byproduct of oil and gas refining, Lawson said.
Even after the war ends, producers in the Gulf would need clear security guarantees before resuming shipments through the strait, and insurance costs would almost certainly rise, said Owen Gooch, an analyst with London-based Argus Consulting Services.
While it’s true that our country, as does China and a handful of other large agricultural nations maintain stores of fertilizer they will need stocks they have and have sold or will sell to be replenished. THAT means that any farm or agribusiness that didn’t top off the supplies they’d need for planting season before the war started are going to get socked with higher prices.
Worse, as I’ve pointed out those prices won’t be coming down anytime soon. In this country in particular there will be those who use the situation to price gouge for as long as they can. We can be as sure of that as we can of Trump spouting lies every day. Only with Trump in the WH, as long as HE gets a cut of the action he won’t have the Dept. of Agriculture or the DOJ do jack about it. Some hand wringing platitudes to fool farmers who would literally vote for a rapist than a Democrat will be enough to sucker them into continuing to support Trump and the GOP.
This is the point where I have to fight my urge to turn “professor” and make this into a long article that will bore you getting into the weeds of a lot of details. I want this to be simple enough you can explain it to others, even MAGAs who might be inclined to at least talk about Trump’s policies. Let’s start with something already noted above. It’s planting season and lots of farmers that need fertilizer can’t buy it. Either there hasn’t been enough delivered to their country at this critical time of year, or what’s there has become too expensive.
Crops are being planted, and that includes some here without adequate fertilizer. They won’t grow as quickly or well as they normally would making them more vulnerable to weather shocks. Late spring freezes or less than normal rainfall. And, they won’t produce the same crop as a given field would normally produce come harvest time. That means a price jump in food this fall. Or worse. If things don’t get back to normal in the Gulf soon mid season applications will also be affected and make crop yield shortfalls significantly worse. You know what THAT will do to food prices.
While MAGAs might stubbornly stick with their cult leader Independent voters including conservative leaning ones will create an electoral bloodbath for the GOP. Yes, even control of the Senate would flip to Democrats. Even in those big rural swaths of MAGA America any Republican House member who didn’t win by double digits will be in trouble.
Now at this point some of you are probably asking ‘Well, if the Gulf reopens to normal shipping by the end of the month won’t it all be OK” Can’t they just add extra fertilizer to make up for what they didn’t apply during planting season and early growth?’ That’s a reasonable question but sorry – the answer is no. Too much applied too fast is as bad or worse than not having applied it at all. You can actually kill crops by over application of this stuff! This is one of those now or never type of things. Yes, down the road normal amounts that might be applied can be spread BUT it’s going to cost more than it would have or should have.
It might be that the drop off in crop yields this fall can be less severe but there will still be less produced. That means YOU will pay more just to eat. For reason’s I’ve laid out the effects are going to hit in September and October when those who sell food to consumers start passing along the costs of all that fertilizer, a third of the world’s supply is sitting on cargo ships because it can’t safely transit the Strait of Hormuz. I urge you to read the linked article. Also this one from Reuters. You need to know what’s coming and why.
Trump has without realizing what he was doing lit a fuse that will explode in grocery stores across the country just before the midterms. The only question is how big those explosions will be.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
