Trump as we know never forgets a slight. He holds onto grudges and vows to get payback and when it comes to Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Trump has had a huge grudge going back years. All the way to the 2020 election and Kemp carefully adhering to the laws of his state and refusing to block certification of the vote (giving the state’s electoral votes to Biden) of the results. Three, count em three counts and Trump lost each one by roughly the same margin. In Trump’s version of reality HE made Kemp Gov. in the first place so by god Kemp owed him. Actual reality is rather different and I’ll get to that but the fact is for months those near Trump and Republicans in general have feared at some point Trump’s regular but mostly private vilification of Kemp would explode into a public spectacle. It has, and Trump ‘went nuclear’ in a rally in Georgia itself!
This is the last thing the GOP wanted to see happen. Worse, it’s a safe bet that now this particular Trump grievance is out there Trump will continue to flog it. The fear is that in the process Trump will again cause himself to lose Georgia, and if the election winds up being close those sixteen electoral votes could be the difference in who we see sworn in as President on Inauguration day. This article by Politico describes how concerns have been building, Trump’s fuming about Kemp not being at events and fundraisers. Questioning why the hell Kemp (who Trump truly believes wouldn’t be Gov. except for his intervention) seemed nowhere to be found. What really got the fuse lit was that days before a fundraiser and rally in Georgia that Kemp skipped, a few days before Kemp’s wife gave a local interview. The clip, since deleted from the station’s website has Kemp’s wife Marty saying she was going to write in her husbands name rather than vote for Trump.
Well, you can only imagine how furious Trump was when he learned about THAT. He had an aide on his plane print out a copy of the report on the matter. One comment attributed to him was him saying it was “terrible” (I’m sure a lot of much more colorful language was used) and questioning others including RNC Chair Michael Whatley how to respond. Trump was basically told not to give the thing any oxygen. To let it go. However this is Trump we’re talking about and like I said he’d got a ‘YUGE’ issue with Kemp going back years. That’s why so many feared it would wind up exploding like an oil tanker full of liquified feces. Those fears were just realized at his recent Georgia rally. From the linked article:
Publicly, Trump was not saying much about Kemp at the time, though no real progress had been made behind the scenes in reuniting the two men. But by the time the August rally arrived, Trump did exactly what Republicans in both camps had feared: He let loose.
Kemp, the former president said, is “a bad guy. He’s a disloyal guy. And he’s a very average governor.”
“Little Brian Kemp,” Trump added for good measure.
You might say so what? The thing is that Kemp is actually well-liked in his home state. The hardest core MAGAs might have issues with him but even they came out and voted for Kemp. He carries a lot of weight. What’s at stake is how much of it he’s willing to throw behind Donald Trump this year. There IS a difference between Kemp having pledged to support the GOP nominee, and really, really going to bat for him. To rally his own substantial GOTV operation which is superior to anything the actual Trump campaign bothered to build.
Conventional wisdom says President Biden dropping out has put Georgia into play. It seems clear Georgia IS now in play but I believe it always was going to be. Despite a clear polling advantage I felt after the convention Biden would make it close enough that when the inevitable ‘Trump attacks Kemp’ thing exploded Biden could prevail again. Now? Harris has an actual shot at winning by more than a mere eleven thousand votes. Right after covering that the article said this:
The eruption unnerved Trump’s Republican allies — and marked a potential turning point in his presidential campaign in a key state. Kemp not only controls a vaunted turnout operation in Georgia but also has a track record of assembling the kind of coalition of traditionalist Republicans and independents that Trump will be counting on to carry the swing state in November.
That really jumped out at me. But what really drove home how much Trump might have screwed his chances in Georgia was the very next paragraph:
Following the rally, even Trump’s advisers seemed to know the former president had gone too far. “The Trump campaign was calling around to legislators … asking them to post positive things about the rally on social media and were being told, ‘No,’” said a Georgia GOP operative familiar with these private conversations and granted anonymity to discuss them.
If you’ve extended me the courtesy of reading to this point I ask to to think about what I just highlighted. Don’t kid yourselves. Neither Kemp or those legislators want to see a Democrat in the WH. Not Joe Biden again. Or Kamala Harris come January. However, while most will vote for Trump and make a few pro forma, weak statements that’s ALL they will do. PZ’s Ursual and Murfster frequently write about how at some point the GOP needs to see Trump and Trumpism/MAGA mortally wounded. Only then can it start the long overdue process of rebuilding or the even longer process of leaving the MAGA Party to it’s own devices and creating something new. There are an awful lot of ‘silent conservative majority’ types out there ready and eager to get to work on that.
In the meantime Kemp is making it clear that Trump’s shout out to those three members of the Georgia Election Board notwithstanding he’s going to do his best to play this election straight. He’s already done plenty via voter registration laws and voter suppression laws to skew things the GOP’s way. He’ll be able to point to that later on. (It wasn’t Trump that allowed Kemp to win in 2028. It was his use and abuse of his position as Secretary of State and oversee the very election that made him Governor!) Kemp knows damn well the spotlight will shine bright on Georgia and there IS that stalled case of Fani Willis’ that’s still in the works. Kemp (and others) aren’t about to go making a big public deal about cold-shouldering Trump’s efforts to coerce state’s to cheat if that’s what it takes, but a more subtle message is being sent.
Governors and others in other states are looking at Georgia and seeing it’s not COSTING Kemp politically. Even with Trump so openly attacking him! I’m not placing any bets but I think it’s possible that in other states, especially Red ones it might prompt others to slowly back away from open shenanigans. Especially with not just the Georgia 2020 case but the ongoing Arizona one (among others) holding officials who broke laws in 2020 to account. I can’t help but wonder if a quiet but significant attitude of ‘Let’s not take chances this year. Just play it straight, accept the results and if Trump/we lose turn our attention to the midterms and then 2028.’
Kemp? I’ve said before and now am sure of it. Unlike Hailey he chose to stay out of the fray this year. One might say he was setting himself up to be a ‘savior’ if Trump imploded before his own nominating convention. I once thought so myself at times but I’m convinced his eye has always been on 2028. He knew damn well the futility in challenging Trump this year. He’s also got some fence mending to do with a good sized chunk of MAGA. Feel free to disagree but he’s as smooth a political operator as he is ruthless and I think he’s got the chops to pull it off.
It required Kempt to make a political bet but it looks like it’s going to pay off. In a GOP deciding if only because they have no choice but to move on from Trump Kemp is well positioned to pick up the mantle. Just like Hailey would have been had she stayed out of things this year. Kemp will only be in his mid-sixties in 2028 and seems younger. He’s a dyed in the wool conservative and can easily use Nixon’s ‘southern strategy’ playbook to great effect, and get conservatives to start convincing the rank and file to go back to talking in code, the dog-whistle politics the GOP used so devastatingly in the past. Hell, if he were to get the nomination Hailey would be the perfect choice for him for VP!
Finally, what he’s done so far and is doing right now is exerting a gentle, behind the scenes show of leadership that will make Governors in other states as well as Republicans in Congress take him seriously as a Presidential candidate. If as I suspect Trump keeps attacking him and Kemp’s popularity in his own state holds up (I believe it will) he’ll emerge as a leader of the GOP after the typical election loss fallout and finger pointing.
What matters is that Trump has once again proven unable to let go of a grudge and THIS time it’s likely to cost him.
Lord, I hope not that would be like a smart fascist taking up the mantle of the 2025 project which I believe they all stand behind
I see pics of him that remind me of a former Senator of mine (Richard Burr) who has a smile sometimes that gives of a vibe of someone who’s just gotten his rocks off by having tortured puppies and kittens. At least he doesn’t project the same way a guy that TRULY terrified me for so long does. Former Gov. John Kasich of Ohio would have been truly horrifying as President. Despite his charming, oh so reasonable demeanor Kasich would be worse than the worst Projects 2025 plans. I truly believe this country dodged a bullet by Kasich not having been bitten by the Presidential bug.
“I truly believe this country dodged a bullet by Kasich not having been bitten by the Presidential bug.”
Um, Denis, have you forgotten that Kasich DID run for President in 2016?
Yeah Denis…one of two of our traitors in the senate. During the impeachments, I gave their offices so much hell for being traitors, Burt called the capital police on me for reminding him, that, although he is a traitor, a liar, and a thief,(insider trading), he was a public figure, who’s location at any one time is public record. The police called me to ask about it,(this was before they had bigger problems with January 6th), telling me what their office reported. I asked him where was the threat, and to tell me if I was wrong that these public servants’ residences and offices are public record. After a 30 second pause, he replied that was true. I then asked him what was the problem for stating the obvious? He told me to have a nice day, and I him, and he hung up. Neither of us could guess what he’ll was going to come their way from the man BURR SUPPORTED. When Burr voted for impeachment, I called to thank him. Now I guess it’s back to playing the pea under the princess mattress! Ha. Cowards. Along with religious hypocrites, I have no tolerance for privileged Cowards. Burr and Tillis are traitors to their oaths!