GIUK Gap. GIUK. Sounds like that orange gunk Trump slathers on himself. However as I’m sure you guess it’s an acronym for Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom and back during the Cold War (remember when ANY President would treat a Russia like Putin’s as an adversary?) it played a vital role. I’ll dig into all that. Right now let’s just deal with Trump’s obsession with the place. To him it’s like a kid wanting a toy. He probably likes the name Greenland. That could be the problem right there. It’s a place with an ironic name. Like the bald guy nicknamed “Curly”, or the big and burly guy named “Tiny.”
Greenland, as YOU know is mostly covered in ice. I’m starting to think Trump doesn’t KNOW that. That what the name implies and what the place is actually like are very different. Over six decades ago in early grade school I and classmates got our first lesson basic Geography. I along with others asked pretty much the same question about Greenland – “Why do they call it that when it’s covered in ice?” I’ll bet when you were young you did too. Greenland is pretty big to be sure but it’s also home to the world’s second largest ice sheet.  I’ll talk more about that in a minute.
For now, much as it pains me I have to be a little bit fair to the Orange Oompa-Loompa. A few times in the past the notion of the U.S. acquiring Greenland (like an ‘Alaska East?’) has been brought up. And dropped for some quite practical reasons of course. We’re headed into a new Trump era however so practical yields to crazy, if not batshit insane. Still, trying to be fair two things have been mentioned on why Greenland could be worth it to us. Strategic (military) importance and the potential for natural resources. Let’s tackle that one first.
I mentioned Greenland is mostly covered in ice. A LOT of ice. Much is freaking mile thick on some of the glaciers! Seems to me just finding, much less extracting all the minerals and precious metals that cause some people to have visions of dollar signs dancing in their heads isn’t practical. Unless all that ice is gone in which case we and the world are going to have bigger problems. Someday we will but it’s not something we should want to hurry along. If you check out the earlier link Wikipedia has a ton of good information about that ice. And what it’s melting might mean.
Four inches or more rise in sea level might not seem like a lot but in fact it is. Even that much has effects well inland. Then there’s the issue of a big chunk of that ice holding back and containing a massive amount of methane which is even worse on the greenhouse effect than CO2. More and faster melting in other places! Yes, initially some of the minerals that would get into Greenland’s waters would benefits marine life and fisheries but that would diminish. That much freshwater would affect the balance of the ocean’s chemistry in the upper Atlantic basin, which in turn will affect the Atlantic Ocean current. Changes in ocean currents affect weather patterns, including over land. One can go back decades and see how things have escalated in fact. So there’s that. We’re probably past the tipping point but there’s no reason to hurry it along by being stupid. By stupid I’m referring to Trump supporters who suggest dropping a batch of NUKES on Greenland! The only thing that would accomplish is blast holes in the ice, and leave radioactive fallout dust that would greatly SPEED up the melting. And I’ve already told you part of why that would be bad.
So let’s turn to the other issue of ‘National Security’ and Greenland’s ‘Strategic importance. Yes, we’ve had a presence there and have for a long time. Other NATO nations too. Not large but at one time pretty damned important. The GIUK Gap isn’t something the average person knows much about and boy there’s a lot to tell. If you have time (and some patience) the link I just included has a ton of information. I know many of you would rather get enough info here to know what you really need to know but it’s still a bit involved. So bear with me please.
Russia is a country who like us has been blessed with an abundance of natural resources. It is also freaking HUGE. Yet despite being a vast country it’s cursed with an accident of geography. The lack of deepwater ports that can handle large ships and shipping traffic year round. AND also have access to the open sea. Either they have to wait for thaws in the spring, or move both civilian and military ships past countries they don’t control. The old USSR had the shipping, both military and civilian for full use of the oceans but there were so-called “choke points” that limited their movement.
This was of particular importance militarily, and more so once ships, submarines in particular could operate under nuclear power. Thanks to good ole Jimmy Carter we led the way on this but the USSR stole plenty of technology from us and had people of their own. As ships, and particular ballistic missile subs became larger and could carry more and more ICBMs keeping track of both surface ships and submarines was critical. For surface ships, with most of the Soviet fleet up north that meant coming down into the Atlantic, both to be positioned to hit our ships and subs but also to try and sneak a sub with nuclear cruise missiles or ICBMs closer and reduce our time to respond to attack.
Therefore knowing when they had ships headed into the Atlantic whether on the surface (where the “choke points” would allow land based air attacks in addition to Naval ones or submarines was vital. Take a look at the title picture. The map shows the ability we had to monitor the USSR’s (and now Russia’s) movements into the northern Atlantic. In addition to surface ships and aircraft (and satellites too) we could keep track of everything on the surface. Down on the seabed a series of underwater cables and sophisticated and separate hydrophones could listen for the sounds of ships (subs) transiting the gap. It’s too complicated to get into but each boat, via the nuances of its propeller(s) and power plant (the steam noises) produces it’s unique “sound signature.”
It’s not that the USSR didn’t have some capable boats and their “Alfa Class” attack subs were formidable due to their depth capability (well beyond ours) and submerged speed. So by having our own/NATO subs patrolling (and listening themselves) we almost always new when the Soviets risked sending subs into the Atlantic and could track them. Same with when they went home. However that was then, during the Cold War. Over time the underwater game of hide and seek has continued but not with the urgency and danger it once did. As a result the GIUK gap and its “SOSUS Barrier” became somewhat less important strategically.
Then it became all too clear that once he truly got control of his country Putin intended to create a new, ‘leaner and meaner’ USSR in his own image. Now, that ability to monitor the comings and goings of Russian ships, especially Naval ones matters more again. So you might be saying ‘Well hell Denis, that’s all the more reason for us to take over Greenland!’ Think for a second – specifically two names. Trump and Putin. Trump is still Pootie’s Puppet and it’s not like Musk doesn’t have his own bromance with the Russian dictator. Under Trump Greenland would be of more use to Russia than the U.S. and NATO! Oh, and take a look at that map again. If Trump can gobble up Greenland then why not Iceland too? We (and NATO) have a significant presence there too.
In any case neither Greenland’s modest population (less than sixty thousand) or the nation it technically belongs to (Denmark) is interested in selling. Or trading. For all his delusions of grandeur there’s not much Trump can do to economically force a change. What’s he going to do? Threaten to yank out the not all that many U.S. troops there and abandon the bases? Other NATO countries will say ‘Thank you very much’ and Denmark will welcome THEIR troops. Not to mention Denmark itself is a member of NATO. Wouldn’t it be something for Trump to attack a NATO ally with the intent of this country acquiring it? Our position as the leader of the free world is almost gone already and that would be it for good. With our Pacific allies too.
The U.S. find out in a very bad way that the world will manage without us. Economically and yes, militarily. Not easily but the sad fact is a lot of quiet discussions have been going on amongst our friends and allies since the awful words “President Elect Donald Trump” flashed across TV screens. Yes, President Biden repaired much of the damage Trump did BUT as is so often said Bush 43 was our “Mulligan.” Trump’s getting into the White House meant every four years all bets would be off. Add in that it was clear all along Trump would run again and it would be a close election and the urgency of planning in the Capitols of our allies ramped up. Just in case.
So if Trump really pushes this all hell will break loose. Putin sure wants it because it would finally fracture the NATO alliance or so he thinks. Sure, it would be weakened for a while without U.S. leadership and dominance but like I said, they’ve been making contingency plans. And with allies in the Pacific too. Given how depleted Russia is because of their war in Ukraine they are hardly in a position to go rolling through NATO countries for years to come.
In the meantime though the United States would have lost it’s place in the world. Militarily, Diplomatically and even Economically. And absent the kind of very, very rare conditions such as the goings on that led to WWII never get another chance. No, we will be just another country and one that can’t be counted on by any free, decent and powerful country. All because Trump got a stupid idea in his head and threw a tantrum because mommy and daddy wouldn’t give him a proverbial cotton candy at the carnival!
Instead of sending Don Jr. HE should take a trip to Greenland but be taken to the middle of the place. To stand there and see mile thick ICE extending far beyond what he can see. Then take him up in the jet and circle the place! Let him look down and see that it’s mostly a sheet of ICE! Even Trump might finally “get” that Greenland has an ironic name and isn’t someplace ripe for development of office buildings, condos and such.
Well said. I remember a scene in Monty Python’s Jabberwocky where Michael Palin goes into a medieval ‘factory’. He, being a craftsman, noticed he could improve the efficiency of someone using a hammer. He moved the object being hammered throwing off the whole enterprise. The funniest part was showing him diving into the street barely avoiding a big wooden wheel that had rolled out the door, with billowing smoke following. Sometimes it’s best to leave things alone. Growing up in the south, that philosophy is taught concerning vipers. He’d be wise to think…wait…what the hell am I saying? Donald Trump think? Nevermind.