The initially ballyhooed meeting between Putin and Trump has been called off. There is some suggestion it’s merely been postponed but with no timeline or estimate on when it might be rescheduled it seems cancelled. Everything I’ve read and heard is based on the assumption Trump chose to call it off. That’s certainly possible, as Trump had a moment of lucidity and realized he’d come away empty handed (AGAIN) and he’s got enough problems to deal with these days. What no one seems to be considering, much less talking/writing about is the possibility that it was PUTIN who bailed. Or why HE might have done so. So, let’s take a look at that.
First let’s look at where things stand which is nowhere. This short write-up from Raw Story is typical of the coverage of ‘The bigly meeting in Budapest will generate a peace deal’ got called off is typical. As I noted the general theme is Trump realized it would at best be a nothing-burger and at worst a sh*t sandwich that would lead to another round of negative press coverage both here in the U.S. and abroad. (With the odds being it would be the latter):
“I’m surprised that he’s not going,” said Labott. “I think Donald Trump can’t quit … Vladimir Putin. He wants to go there. He wants to see that — he — obviously, we just talked about the Middle East. He fancies himself a dealmaker. He really wants to get Putin to agree, and he thinks that he can. I think the fact that he’s not going is a recognition by President Trump himself that Vladimir Putin has no interest in ending the war.”
There’s much in there to agree with. Trump does in fact see himself as the ultimate dealmaker, one who can charm anyone into coming round to his way of thinking and give him what he wants. In this matter what he wants is an end to the war in Ukraine on terms that doesn’t make it look like he handed his puppetmaster Pootie a win. And then get that Nobel Peace Prize he’s come to lust for even more than he spent decades lusting after his oldest daughter. He was soooooooo sure of himself when he hosted Putin on American soil, an AFB in Alaska he’d get at least the outlines of a deal and the ridicule he took for handing PUTIN a huge PR win and getting nothing in return. For damned sure Trump doesn’t want that to happen again and if he became convinced he’d likely get embarrassed again it’s easy to see Trump deciding to pull the plug.
On the other hand consider the last sentence of what I highlighted. I agree completely Putin has NO intention of ending the war he started in Ukraine. What I question is the assumption Trump not only realized this but also that he, ‘The Donald” wouldn’t be able to get Putin to budge. Not even face to face! I doubt anyone reading this would challenge the notion Trump has delusions of grandeur. They include his unshakable belief that he can charm (or threaten) anyone he wants whenever he wants. When he can’t Trump simply can’t accept that he was wrong about his abilities, but rather someone else’s fault.
Of course, there’s also plenty to suggest Trump is completely in thrall tp Putin, or that Putin has something on him he simply can’t handle being made public. Or a combination of the two. As a result, whatever Putin wants Trump says ok, especially face-to-face without others listening in. Pootie sets the rules and when he says “JUMP” Trumpty asks “how high?” Trump may realize this and hate himself for it, it wouldn’t be the only source of self-hatred Trump experiences in the dark of night when brutal reality sneaks into his consciousness. Or, Trump might be the only person who doesn’t realize how much of a lapdog, puppet, useful idiot etc. he is.
Regardless as I said earlier the prevailing thinking is that Trump nixed the summit in Budapest. I say it’s worth considering PUTIN did, and more importantly why. Let’s backtrack for a minute.
Back in February 2022 Putin (and almost everyone outside Ukraine) assumed his forces would kill or capture Ukraine’s President Zelensky and the top echelons of that country’s government in hours. In a day or so they’d control Kyiv and the surrounding region and other key cities, and in one to two weeks all of Ukraine. As you know it didn’t work out that way. Putin’s greatly feared Russian Army and Air Force could and have cause a lot of death and destruction but turned out to be anything but invincible. Putin/Russia did NOT win the expected quick victory and that being the case every day since has meant Putin/Russia has been LOSING.
Putin, like most leaders thinks a lot about his legacy. His name will be mud in Russian history if he can’t prevail in Ukraine. Everyone knows it and ego alone is more than enough for Putin to keep this appalling war going.  There’s also the fact that if he agreed to any peace deal that was perceived by Russians (including some with the means to act) he’d suffer a ‘9mm headeache’ and would be lucky to get buried in a grave with his name on it. At some point that might happen simply because he hasn’t won and it will finally sink in that what parts of Ukraine Russia has taken over since 2014 will be ALL they get. In the west it’s too often forgotten that Crimea and two disputed eastern Ukrainian provinces were illegally occupied by Russia back in 2014. The current war is Putin’s attempt to complete the takeover.
It has cost Russia dearly to take and hold on to some other territory in eastern Ukraine and that sliver of land and ports along the coast of the Black Sea. The so-called “Land Bridge to Crimea.” Had Trump not convinced the GOP to start backing off support for Ukraine while Biden was in office, and further held back support since regaining power Ukraine would have had the resources to break though admittedly formidable Russian defenses and take back the coast. Putin lives in fear every day of his life that with other NATO countries stepping up to cover needs he’s gotten Trump/the GOP to not meet it could happen.
Putin isn’t winning and as I’ve said here and so many times in the past for him that’s virtually losing. Also, as I’ve noted this war has cost Russia dearly in treasure, blood and what gets overlooked – a so-called brain drain of younger people with talent and skills who fled before they could get drafted and sent into the meat grinder. The cream of Russia’s next generation of leaders, be it in government or other sectors is GONE. Putin’s oligarchs, one or more of whom will one day succeed him know that, and there are plenty of credible reports Putin has gotten ever more paranoid someone or a group might make a move on him.
Being away from Moscow, even for a day is a GAMBLE. Since it was to a U.S. Air Force Base in freaking Alaska, a PR coup for Pootie and Russia (which seems to want Alaska back despite having sold it fair and square – at the time it was called “Seward’s Folly” because it for sure looked like Lincoln’s main partner who engineered the deal had gotten the short end of the stick) so it was a good gamble for Putin. Hungary is a friend to Putin and Russia, about as crappy a NATO ‘ally’ as it’s possible to be but it’s still part of NATO.
One could make a case that Putin fears leaving even for a day or two to what he can claim (to folks in Russia) is at least if not a full blown ally at least “neutral” would give wannabe successors an opening to seize power. Rest assured from the moment the meeting was announced powerful people in Russia who think it’s time to settle things with Ukraine and move on from Putin’s rule wondered “Is now the time?” So there’s that.
Something else to consider is Putin’s health. We’ve been talking a lot in the U.S. (and other western countries) about a Trump that isn’t just mentally devolving at an accelerating rate but also clearly in damned poor physical health Credible reports indicated he was seriously ill with stomach cancer some time back. With good treatment it’s possible to make it through something like that and contrary to what you might think Russia has a good health care system. For the elite the care is as good as anywhere in the world. Still, anyone who’s won a battle with cancer knows it can return.
What if Putin is sick again and more so than is realized? At his age a return of cancer and the treatment for it can bring about a swift limitation on one’s routine. Including international travel. So there’s THAT possibility.
There’s also something that has to worry the hell out of Putin. He has an indictment from the ICC. There was no question of Trump allowing him to be arrested on a U.S. Air Force base, but there’s a reason Putin doesn’t travel outside of Russia. He’s afraid of being arrested and taken to the Hague to be tried for war crimes and even one of Trump’s idiots like Habba or Halligan could prosecute and convict him! Hungary is lead by someone with a strong authoritarian streak who although his country is a longtime member of NATO has danced along the edge of the NATO/Russia razor blade for a while now. One slip and it’s bad news.
Putin might well fear that he could be arrested in Hungary, even if their leader says his government will ignore it’s treaty obligations and refuse to make the arrest. However unless all the “talks” would be on Putin’s plane he has to get from the airport to his embassy. And from there to wherever a summit would take place. Granted, Putin would travel in a limo with Diplomatic plates but that might not matter. Hopefully someone who really knows international law can clarify whether the ICC can ignore it and arrest Putin from his limo.
There’s also the possibility that someone or a group in Hungary might attack the motorcade and kill Putin on the streets of Budapest. The due is terrified of HIS OWN people killing him. It’s hard to imagine him feeling secure enough to travel through the streets of another country, many of who’s citizens prefer unfettered alliance with NATO and the west instead of their leader positioning himself/Hungary to become part of Putin’s ‘new USSR.’
I really wish western and especially American news outlets would explore and talk about all this. Alas, while sometimes they get the job done the bulk of them are at heart lazy. It’s easy to do a journalistic ‘drive by’ and go with the narrative we’ve been seeing – that Trump pulled the plug and maybe, probably even because he knew he’d be seen as kowtowing to Putin again. Giving Pootie a PR win in exchange for nothing. That might be true, but it might not and if it’s the latter the public both in the U.S. and elsewhere needs to be informed PUTIN might have been the one to pull the plug and reasons why he might have done so.
It matters because it could have a major impact on maintaining or even increasing support for Ukraine.
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I’d be willing to bet Putin took a look at the map and realized he might have a difficult time getting a SAFE flight to Budapest. A *direct* flight is out of the question as that goes directly over Ukrainian air space and I’d be willing to bet (again) that Ukraine’s air defenses would be targeting virtually ANYTHING larger than a duck overflying the country during any window that Putin might be in the air.
So, he has to fly over Belarus but then that means flying over Poland. And, given Putin’s little incursions into Polish territory, I’m really doubtful that the Poles would be too keen on ANYTHING larger than a duck coming from the direction of Belarus.
Then, there’s the “southern” route–over the Black Sea and overflying Romania. Of course, Ukraine can still target flights going over the Black Sea and–while I’m not sure of current air traffic patterns in the region, it seems unlikely that there are that many *civilian* flights even making any passes over the Sea. And that IS a loooooooong way to fly (looking at a Google Earth path, it’s about 800km or 500 miles which means about an hour in the air over open seas well within range of Ukrainian targeting arrays). And, no idea about Romania’s feelings about Russia, or, more specifically Putin, but I can’t imagine there’s much love lost
Putin didn’t have to worry about that “summit” in Alaska since it was a simple flight from Russian air space over the Bering Sea and BAM! in Alaska (if this were a movie world, there’d have been a group of mercenaries who infiltrated the military base and kidnap Putin and fly him to some country which would have rightfully declared Putin a war criminal; of course, if the US were being run by *intelligent* people–hell, given the average MAGAt’s intelligence level, I’d settle for intelligent fungi–Putin would’ve never been allowed to set foot on American soil).
“Trump simply can’t accept that he was wrong about his abilities, but rather someone else’s fault.” Well in this case it’s obvious — it’s Putin’s fault. And that’s actually true. Except Trump is such a dork, he doesn’t know what he’s doing anyway, so he really is at fault.
“Trump may realize this and hate himself for it, it wouldn’t be the only source of self-hatred Trump experiences in the dark of night when brutal reality sneaks into his consciousness. Or, Trump might be the only person who doesn’t realize how much of a lapdog, puppet, useful idiot etc. he is.” — I am sue it is the latter alternative. Trump will never realize this. Brutal reality does not sneak into his consciousness. Trump is incapable of hating himself, at last not consciously. Like you said before, it’s always someone else’s fault.
Your theory that Putin is the one that canceled is very plausible. Also the reasons for it. Reports are that Putin is more paranoid than ever these days.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2121340/russia-putin-accuses-exiles-planning-revolution
Also I don’t think that Puti sees any great need to meet with Trump in person just now. In just oe phone conversation he got what he wanted. If he needs anything else, he’s got Trump’s number. Which leads me to believe it really is Trump that wants this meeting, and if so, that just corroborates his particular kind of stupidity. He does think ding ht esme thing over and over will produce a different result. It works with everybody else. (Or so he imagines.) The truth is, it never worked with Putin and it’s not working with Zelensky or Xi or Starmer or Macron or Carney of Canada Albanese of Australia, or .., you get the idea. It’s not working with the American people either.