You have all heard me say before that being a congress critter is, as a general rule, one of the safest jobs in the country. Once you’re in, you’re in. The retention rate in congress, House and Senate, is about 94.6%. You pretty much have to get caught on tape chasing a sheep in fishnet stockings across the national mall with your pants down to get turfed out.
A little research shows that it isn’t just congress. President Biden is our 46th President. But, barring natural death or assassination, the presidency is almost as safe as being in congress. In 46 presidencies, we have only had 4 modern Presidents who got bounced after their first time. And they all share something in common.
The first was Gerald Ford. Ford is an anomaly simply because he never ran for President in the first place. He was the senior GOP Senator from Michigan. But when White House bag man Spiro Agnew had to resign, trying to avoid federal indictment, Ford became VP. And when President Sneaky made a midnight run for the border, Ford ended up being serenaded with Hail to the Chief. Jimmy Carter bounced him in 1980.
It didn’t take Carter long to find out how the shoe feels on the other foot. Despite being possibly the most humble and honest man to run for President, as much as I loved him, he was a bit over his head. Say what you want about Biden, at least he isn’t fighting inflation by putting out a couple of million white buttons with the black letters W I N, for Whip Inflation Now on them. The Iran hostage crisis doomed his presidency, and Ronald Reagan beat him in 1980.
The third was President George H W Bush, and his loss was as much bad timing as anything else. In fact, Clinton got the Democratic nomination in 1992 partly because when the primaries started, nobody wanted to go up against Bush. With his successful handling of Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, and the victory of Operation Desert Storm, Bush was on cruise control. Then the post war recession hit, and Bill Clinton got an early Christmas present.
Those three all shared something in common. As they say in sports, they were all One and done. When 1980 rolled around, nobody even bothered to ask Ford to take another whack at Carter. And nobody with a functioning brain suggested that Carter butt heads again with Reagan. And I can’t recall a Draft Bush! movement in 1996 for Bush to take another swipe at Clinton. You know why? because they fucking lost! Why throw good money after bad? And to their credit, none of them ever expressed any interest at tilting at that particular windmill again.
Personally I believe a large part of that was due to the fact that these men had a little something called pride and self respect. Memories are short in politics, until you lose. How many incumbents have you known that, facing a difficult reelection, have voluntarily retired instead, knowing they can always resurrect their careers later, without the label of LOSER being attached to them.
Which takes us to our fourth, and last one term loser. Former President Donald Trump. Trump is actually a political joke in the Andrew Dice Clay genre. He was a virulent sexist, racist, narcissistic xenophobe who lost the popular vote in 2016. But thanks to a little help from his commie handler, Vlad the Imp, Trump slid across the finish line in the electoral college. Only to get trounced by a truly massive 7 million votes in 2020.
So, he’s toast, right? A lonely loser exiled to his Florida McMansion? After all, why throw good money after bad? But no, not this time. Because the GOP is no longer a rational political party with rational thought processes, it’s a wholly owned subsidiary of the Trump organization crime mob. If all goes according to schedule, Trump will be the nominee for the GOP again in 2024, and we’ll see how slimy worms like Ron Pissantis like it when the RNC remodels the 2024 primaries to a nomination by acclamation, and crowns Trump.
Trump is actually greasing the skids for another humiliation. Because he lacks dignity, self respect, and common sense. He has deluded himself into the belief that the 2020 election was stolen from him, despite the fact that the only confirmed scattered vote fraud was old white dudes voting twice for Trump. And if you can’t win reelection with the advantages of incumbency, free travel on Air Force One, and the bully pulpit, how do you intend to turn around more than 7 million votes from the outside?
At this point, the MAGA GOP has resigned itself to its fate. They have pretty much resigned themselves to permanent minority rule in the House through gerrymandering, and gambling their existence on a desperate attempt to change state laws to make it possible for them to literally rig the next Presidential election so Trump wins no matter what.
I will leave you with this. Nobody actually knows how someone will react under extreme pressure until the person is actually under that pressure. George H.W. Bush left the presidency to bitterly complain that his greatest disappointment of his term was nominating Justice David Souter to the Supreme Court. He didn’t play ball. One of my favorite movies is Steven Spielberg’s brilliant Lincoln. In the climactic scene, they are holding the House vote on the Emancipation Proclamation. The clerk is holding the roll call, and they come to the ultimate swing vote, a young House member who had been brutally courted by both sides with promises and threats. It wasn’t until his name was called for the third time that he sprang to his feet, and called out, Yes! Yes! DAMMIT, yes! and collapsed back into his seat.
I bring this up for a reason. Faced with the weight of history, Souter repeatedly disappointed Bush and conservatives. And the 6-3 conservative majority Trump created has repeatedly ruled against him in lopsided fashion. In a constitutional crisis, I don’t see Chief Justice Roberts demolishing American democracy. Justice Amy Coney Barrett will be the wildcard. And she’ll be talking to Justice Brown Jackson, another mother. Don’t take any vote for granted.
The former guy has shown again and again that he doesn’t know much about history, and most of what he knows is wrong. The people who vote for him tend to be much the same.
“He was the senior GOP Senator from Michigan.”
Uh, Murf? Jerry Ford was NEVER a senator. He was a member of the House of Representatives when Nixon nominated him to replace Agnew. (In fact, he was House Minority Leader from Jan 1965 until he was confirmed as VP in Dec 1973. He never ever ran for the Senate–nor the Michigan governorship; his greatest political aspiration had been to become Speaker of the House.)
Another point:
Ford was beaten by Carter in 1976 (not 1980 as you currently have–especially since you have Carter being beaten by Reagan in 1980 as well). And the “Whip Inflation Now” point was started by President Ford, not Carter (not really sure why that tidbit is included in the Carter segment).
On the Clinton matter, it’s not really true that NOBODY wanted to run against Bush. Other than Jerry Brown, there weren’t any incredibly high-profile names in the bunch but there were three Senators who did throw their hats into the Democratic ring: Tom Harkin (IA); Bob Kerrey (NE); and Paul Tsongas (MA). And, it’s not like Clinton just ran away with the primaries and caucuses. In the 15 contests before Super Tuesday (Mar 10), Kerrey won 1 (SD), Harkin won 3 (IA, ID, MN), Brown won 2 (CO, NV), Tsongas won 4 (MD, UT, WA, AZ) and Clinton won 3 (GA, SC, WY) with 2 states that were splits (Clinton and Tsongas split NH though Tsongas received more votes; Tsongas and Brown split ME–Brown had more votes but Tsongas got more delegates). Kerrey dropped out a week before Super Tuesday after failing to score after SD and Harkin dropped out the weekend before Super Tuesday (the AZ, SC and WY contests were held the same day and he only won AZ with a distant second in SC and coming in last in WY; then with NV, he could only get third place). Clinton swept Super Tuesday in a three-man race, winning 8 of the 11 states (Tsongas won the other 3 and Brown didn’t win any, coming in a relatively distant second- or even third-place in all 11). It wasn’t until April that Clinton really took off; after Super Tuesday, in the other 6 March contests, Clinton only won 3, Tsongas won 1 and Brown won 2, but Tsongas withdrew (even though his name remained on the ballot on most remaining states) before April 1 and while Brown won 1 contest, the rest were all pretty much sweeps for Clinton (though Tsongas did pull in enough votes in several states keeping Clinton from receiving majorities in 9 contests).
“One of my favorite movies is Steven Spielberg’s brilliant Lincoln. In the climactic scene, they are holding the House vote on the Emancipation Proclamation. The clerk is holding the roll call, and they come to the ultimate swing vote, a young House member who had been brutally courted by both sides with promises and threats. It wasn’t until his name was called for the third time that he sprang to his feet, and called out, Yes! Yes! DAMMIT, yes! and collapsed back into his seat.”
Well, that’s all good and everything but it’s also a piece of utter fiction. The Emancipation Proclamation was NEVER presented to the Congress for consideration; it was effectively an Executive Order.
What you’re probably thinking of is the debate on the 13th Amendment which began during Lincoln’s presidency and the amendment was approved by Lincoln and sent to the states for ratification (although it wouldn’t be added until after Lincoln’s death).
You might not see Roberts demolishing democracy but it can be demolished without him. To say you can’t see it being demolished by the rest of the x-tian taliban sitting on the court is just silly: it is what they have been groomed for all these years.
History?
Like the warren commission?
They say history repeats itself. 59 years after 11.22.1963 we have another “warren commission”.
A great big coverup of incompetence that wont be going anywhere….
“It didn’t take Carter long to find out how the shoe feels on the other foot. Despite being possibly the most humble and honest man to run for President, as much as I loved him, he was a bit over his head. Say what you want about Biden, at least he isn’t fighting inflation by putting out a couple of million white buttons with the black letters W I N, for Whip Inflation Now on them. The Iran hostage crisis doomed his presidency, and Ronald Reagan beat him in 1980.”
Hey Murph, this paragraph makes it sound like Carter did the WIN thing. Make clear that it was Gerald Ford, out only unelected VE AND president, in19744. Carter wasn’t in over his head so much as some of his staff was, bringing a bit too much attitude to DC as “outsiders” Carter is naturally kind man who tried not to brutally rein them in. That was his main mistake. The other was actually allowing the CAB to die. Deregulation was the worst transportation error the US ever made. And I always hated B actor Reagan’s undeserved praise for his part in the Iran hostage situation, not to mention the first years of his CA governorship, which I and my friends endured, at best. Carter was truly capable, but he had not a few ego-maniacs on staff.