Well, here we go, so buckle in. We’re exactly 5 weeks from election day in the midterms, and it couldn’t be tighter. According to Super Steve Kornacki at MSNBC, It’s basically a mosh pit when it comes to prediction.

For starters, Biden’s average popularity polling right now is 42%, about where Trump sat in 2018. This is not good news for Democrats. But on the other hand, right now the generic control of congress polling is a dead toss up, which is good news for Democrats. Because, in the last 20 years, in every wave election in the midterms, the party benefiting from the wave was at least +7 at the 5 week mark before the election.

Control of the Senate will hang on the results of a handful of battleground states. In order to retake the Senate, the GOP needs to flip one more seat than the Democrats do. The weakest Democratic seat is widely seen as Catherine Cortez Masto in my adopted home of Nevada. What polling there is shows that the race is +/-1. After 18 years in Nevada, if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that polling is like Charmin, the only thing you can do with it is to wipe your ass. The population is too spread out and transient to be able to get a legitimate polling pool to. My personal hunch is that the Democrats will whip out the SEIU in Clark county, which will put Cortez Masto over the top.

On the GOP side the weakest link is seen as the open GOP seat in PA, where Democrat John Fetterman is +4.5 over cruise ship doctor Mehmet Oz. But even if both flip, the Democrats still control the Senate. And since North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin all show Democrats with narrow leads, the possibility is there to expand the Democratic advantage.

In the US House, control is going to come down to a group of 45-60 swing districts in battleground states. And in public polling, the issues that are driving Democratic and independent voters to the polls are higher up the list of national concerns than the ones driving the GOP to the polls.

But in the end, historically it always comes down to the same thing, messaging. And as I wrote previously, if messaging is king in the last 6 weeks of a campaign, then cold hard cash is Queen. Because cash allows you to get your specific messaging, in your own words, to the people you’re trying to motivate, in a way they will respond to. And in order to do that, the candidate’s campaign needs cash to put out positive messages. And that’s where the wheels fall off for the GOP.

Example. In Nevada, we have a plethora of statewide candidates up for reelection. Steve Sisolak for Governor, Cortez Masto for Senate, and Susie Lee and Dina Titus for US House. And they’ve all been remarkably in their advertising since the primaries. They all have had a nice blend of campaign paid positive accomplishment ads talking to the voters, alternating with vicious Super PAC ads whacking their opponents over the head.

On the GOP side, only Lee’s opponent, April Becker, ran a positive introductory ad in the primaries, and it disappeared after the primaries. I have yet to see a positive campaign ad run by either Adam Laxalt for Senate, or whomever Dina Titus is running against. And Joe Lombardo is so MIA that I actually had to Google the NV GOP primaries to find out who won the Governor’s race on that side.

This is the wild card that could tip the 2022 midterms to the Democrats. Because in poll after poll, the thing that almost every American voter hates the most in politics is the vicious, toxic sludge negative advertising. And from what I can see, negative advertising is all the GOP candidates are using.

Because they’re flat stony broke. Traitor Tot has sucked up all of the grassroots fundraising, and the candidates are so insane that in state deep pocket GOP donors refuse to support them. And that’s killing the GOP campaigns. Because PAC and Super PAC ads are required by the FEC to be what is called contrast ads, they can’t promote a candidate, only bash another one. Exactly the kind of ads that voters hate the most.

And the GOP is running into trouble even trying to keep those going. RSVV Chair Rick Scott has pulled support for advertising in Arizona because Masters is getting his ass kicked by 7 points. McConnell has had to pump $20 million in advertising into Hillbilly JD Vance’s campaign because he’s too lazy to fund it with his own billions. GOP Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson is staring at a Mandela Barnes Waterloo, and Marco Rubio is sending out whining texts and emails from Florida about his cash crunch.

But here’s where the rubber really meets the road. If the national GOP and the power players Super PAC’s are having trouble keeping the Senate boat afloat, what does that do wo the plethora of Trombie candidates running for statewide offices like Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State? Those are the very offices that Trump requires in order to be able to overturn unfortunate election results at the state level in 2024. And because they’re Trumplets, they’ve gone as far right as humanly possible, and now they don’t have the funds to recalibrate their messaging in the last 5 weeks. Shit, dude. Scrubbing your website of your abortion position only takes you so far.

Five weeks from tonight is going to be a white knuckle night, no doubt about it. But in the last 5 weeks, the Democrats have the wind at their backs, and the moolah to perfect their messaging. Get out and vote! We’re going out next week when early voting starts. And if you can spare a little coin, support Democratic candidates so they can keep getting their messaging out. No shit, this one is for all the marbles. Let’s not leave anything in the tank


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  1. The very presence of Traitor Tot is why Uncle Joe’s popularity means zero right now. If anything, the latter has a positive to neutral effect on the midterms. The former? Well, unless he’s on the ballot, it’s negative through and through.

  2. Yes, get out and vote to keep the people that gave you staggering inflation, doubled the price of gas and heating costs, more mandates, masks, shutdowns {emergency climate curfews out west next), open boarders with millions of future needy people (future voters) we will be supporting and paying for out of our pockets for decades. Crime is getting so bad that it’s scary to go anywhere especially in big demorcate cities. Unable to coordinate supply chain and there’s still some empty shelves and not just baby formula shortages too, making America energy dependent (that keeps gas expensive for us) and asking other countries for oil when we have oceans under Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas all the way up to North Dakota to Alaska. Forcing climate change with unachievable goals. Shall I go on? Enough said. We don’t want any of that. Why would you vote for that. What is wrong with you people.

    • Hey moron, all those “oceans under Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, etc” don’t mean a thing when oil is too cheap for the oil companies to bother getting it out of the ground. The oil companies want to make money and if they’re only able to get $50 per barrel (and for most of 2020, oil was less that $50 per barrel), it’s simply not worth their time or money to drill for oil. Conversely, when oil is $80 and up, then it makes it worth their while (but they have to track the trends VERY closely because it requires time to get the machinery going and it’s pointless to start back up because oil closed at $120 yesterday and by noon today, it’s down to $80).

      And all of the rest of your propagandistic bullcrap has absolutely NOTHING to do with Joe Biden. Biden was NOT President when COVID shut down so much and, believe it or not, but it takes time for wheat and corn and other agricultural products to grow (there’s the whole plant and hope for ample rain and sun and then harvest the stuff–which all requires workers who can’t very well do a job when there’s no market for the stuff and they’re coming down with COVID). Beef and pork and other meats? Same thing. When the farmers can’t sell their livestock because the markets are all closed, they can’t just slaughter everything and stick it into storage until things get better.

      But why am I arguing with you? You–like other Trumpian MAGATs–don’t have the most basic understanding of how the economy works. We would be in the EXACT SAME SITUATION if Trump had (shudder) been reelected. Unless you were hoping that Trump would use his fascist dictatorial powers to force people back to 80-hour work weeks (when Trump barely put in 10 hours per week of work in the White House) for practically no money just to keep stores supplied (of course, under such a scenario, the stores would be overstocked because nobody would be able to afford anything).
      As for the crime, it’s funny but actual stats showed that violent crimes went down (except in “red” states) and have been trending down for over a decade. I know that doesn’t match the lies you keep getting from your “fair and balanced” fake news sites but it is the truth.

      • You’re too stupid to talk too. Gas doesn’t go from $120 to $80 in 24 hours (source?). Biden (with 3 vaccines and anti bodies but has killed more people during his first 8 months in office from covid than Trump the whole previous year. P.S. People died with covid not from covid but keep drinking that demorcate Kool aid. 99.6% recovery rate.
        You really are a complete stupid idiot that doesn’t have any idea what you’re talking about. Where’s all your documentation? You loser? You really shouldn’t respond, you’re making yourself look really young and stupid, which I assume you are. “violent crimes went down (except in “red” states) and have been trending down for over a decade.” Wow, just wow, you really are young and dumb.

        • More information to make you not stupid:
          ICAN Wins Lawsuit Forcing CDC to Turn Over V-SAFE Covid Vaccine Injury Data – Shows 7.7% Seek Medical Care After Vaccination and 25% Have Serious Side Effects. Try googling it and in general start learning today.

          • Red, you said “25% Have Serious Side Effects.”
            So I tried googling it, just to oblige.

            Siri & Glimstad LLP, who brought the case, report (giving the 2 percentage figures you cite) “25% of v-safe users had an event that required them to miss school or work and/or prevented normal activities.”

            The FDA says (regardless of product)
            “A side effect is considered serious if the result is: death; life-threatening; hospitalization; disability or permanent damage; or exposure prior to conception or during pregnancy caused birth defect.”

            So you have completely misrepresented the severity of the reported side-effects, which included merely taking a day off work.

        • I’m old and smart, motherfucker. Smart enough to realize that the GOP have been trying to get rid of Medicare and Social Security since Reagan. I wouldn’t vote for a Republican if you held a gun to my head – which most of your fascist freaks are all too ready to do. Sad!

    • Inflation is worldwide and was,already beginning under the Orange Orc. Biden doesn’t run the planet, just this country. OPEC is gonna raise oil prices, something else Biden has no control over.
      I doubt you could pass the citizenship test.

  3. I get constant anti Beto ads with out of context quotes. This is from no name add group. there is a pretty good add showing how abbott, patrick and paxton reacted to the Texas freeze. Paxton is the weakest candidate. Even though his opponent has no name recognition Rochelle Garza, ROCHELLE GARZA. She still polls better than Beto vs. abbott.

  4. Cult members search for anything to support their beliefs. Hey red did Trump legitimate lose the election? Should be a yes or no. If no, you are a lying traitorous fascist. If yes, then you are a hypocrite supporting a lying fascist. Either way you are a cult member. Fact.

  5. And anyone who believes Breitbart really has no brain cells left for logical thought. It truly amazes me sometimes how often they site such far right reaching entities. Personally, I cannot send out such hate as seen on the right. I believe in the law of what you put out will eventually come back and bite you in the arse.


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