Whenever I think of the national GOP these days, I can’t stop thinking of a scene from one of my all time favorite movies,The man with 2 brains with Steve Martin. In short, Martin plays a brilliant brain surgeon, tortured by the loss of his wife. One day, while driving, and accidentally hits a gold digger running from her home after giving her husband a heart attack. Martin saves her life with brain surgery and immediately falls in love with her. Which brings us to the scene that keeps reminding me of the GOP.
Martin is standing in front of an oil portrait of his wife on the wall. He says, Rebecca, I can’t hide my feelings for Delores anymore, but I’m worried. Please, if there’s anything wrong with my feelings for her, just give me a sign any kind of sign. The lights start flashing on and off, a wind springs through the room, thunder rolls, a crack appears in the wall, the portrait starts turning in a circle, and a voice screams, No, NO, NOOOO! Martin stares as the portrait, totally disheveled, and says Any kind of a sign at all. I’ll be looking. Meanwhile I’m going to put you in the closet.
Is that a perfect example of the current day GOP head in the sand strategy or what? For months now I have been reporting as I find the empirical evidence that while the structural GOP may look at Trump like a coconut raft on the beach of a desert isle, as time goes by, more and more of the country is less and less into Trump anymore. Especially since they voted for Biden to establish normalcy to the presidency, and since social media gave His Lowness the heave-ho, you almost never hear from him anymore. When it comes to trump, whomever said Ignorance is bliss nailed it in one.
But this is the worst news I’ve heard for Traitor Tot and his GOP acolytes. Quinnipiac just released a new poll. It was brutal for Biden. It showed his popularity at an abysmal 33%. Since the national polling average has Biden at about 42.6%, I’m thinking a little statistical clutter may be in this particular poll. But it was even worse for trump and the GOP.
Because Quinnipiac asked voters another question, Do you want Trump to run for President again in 2024? The results ain’t pretty. 33% said YEA, and an astonishing 59% NO! For clarity, Quinnipiac polls registered voters, so their pool is a weighted blend of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. But if this is true, it is a slow moving train wreck heading for the GOP.
I have been charting this. I wrote that, in the first CPAC held a month after Trump left office, while 67% wanted him to have a leadership role in the GOP, already, at that early date, a bare majority of 51% wanted him to run again in 2024. Non Trombies were already seeing stale date for his shelf life.
And it keeps getting worse. In poll after poll of GOP voters, Trump has shed 10-15% of his support in the last year, now in the low to mid 69’s. Biden is still at 80% Democratic support. As I thought, Trump didn’t just need a robust social media presence to feed his voracious ego, he needed a constant barrage of Trump drivel to keep his Trumplets motivated. With the lack of Trump air in social media, the sheeple are wandering off in all directions.
The reason I find this so important, and am going to keep looking for more polling is the reason that Quinnipiac polls registered voters. Depending which survey of voter registration data you look at, the GOP is either the second or third largest party, behind the Democrats, and in some surveys, Independents. And I’m here to tell ya
goyas and merls boys and girls, you can’t win a national election with 41% of the vote!
This is why I keep fixating on this. Since 2016, the GOP has engaged in a virulent voter suppression campaign, the saner members of the party already knowing that population and racial migration was eating into their last remaining bastions of white superiority. But that is a double edged sword, simply because the only people they can try to suppress from voting are black and brown people, who have been getting suppressed for decades!
Prefect example. In 2018, then Georgia Secretary of State, who was then running for Governor, and should have recused himself from election responsibilities, did a typical GOP dick move. At the 11th hour, he purged about 60,000 minority voters from the rolls. He went on to win within the margin of error of the purged voters. Did Stacey Abrams, and the minority community go and cop a mope, and cry in their beers? No. They mobilized, went out and organized, and registered multiples more new voters than Kemp purged in the first place, giving Biden Georgia, and the Democrats the Senate.
The problem with voter suppression is who the GOP is suppressing! The people they are suppressing have left blood on bridges, bodies splayed in front yards in front of their own children, and activists callously tossed into garbage dumps in Mississippi. The voting franchise defines their equality. And while they may not always feel that the Democrats have their backs, they aren’t about to fold up their tent and go home.
But as I wrote yesterday, voter suppression can have exactly the opposite reaction for Trumptards. Trump voters are inherently lazy, that’s why they never voted until Trump showed up. And if the word comes down, the GOP grapevine that the GOP is stopping black and brown people from voting, their natural response is likely to be, Good! I don’t have to bother, it’s in the bag. That’s the problem with voter suppression, there is nothing motivational in it for your side!
The more I look at the map going into 2022, the more it looks like a Godsmack mosh pit. There are rumors of a record number of Trombie primary challenges from the right, which should make it easier for the Democrats to steamroll the suburban swing districts, and hopefully use it to win Senate seats. But Biden’s popularity is low, and the Democrats could use some good news. They put too many eggs in the BBB basket, and that’s killing them. But as always, Trump is the ultimate wild card. If he continues to play the kingmaker, and tease a 2024 run, he is going to depress GOP voters who have had enough. Buckle up, and keep your arms and legs inside the ride.