Special Election Blues for House Republicans – UPDATE!

As the poll booths opened for the first round of voting in the special election for Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, the membership squeeze on US House Republicans got very much tighter. Not only has the blue wave that surged in state elections in 2025 continued its momentum into 2026, but a sitting Republican in the US House announced he’s defecting.

Go to It’s The Special Election Defection Blues for House Republicans for the full defection story.

Meanwhile, the special election in Georgia was the long-awaited vote to replace Marge Greene. The first round of voting was a jungle primary, meaning every candidate, regardless of party designation, was on the ballot.

MAGA are not known for being math geniuses. I’m sure they were thinking that the more Rs there were on the ballot, the more chances they had for the runoff to feature two Rs. But, of course, the opposite is true: the more Rs there are, the more ways the R vote will split.

In my pre-results article, I forecast that the blue wave that took off in 2025 and continues to surge in 2026 will add between 10 and 50 points to Democrats in congressional elections, based on their current rates of overperformance. I showed uncharacteristic restraint by suggesting theoretically that Dem frontrunner Shawn Harris might get a points boost in the lower end of the range. My prediction:

A higher turnout than usual indicates that more Dems are voting, and if Harris can gain 15 overperformance points by surfing the blue wave, he has a really good chance of getting over the line and into the April 7 runoff.

Here are the early results:

Damn! The Down Ballot contributor, Stephen Wolf, says it was a 17-point margin – I’m officially good at this!

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