Ask yourself this. Over the last several weeks he’s been at trial, exactly what has he done as far as campaigning is concerned, knowing going into it that he has Wednesdays and weekends off? God knows he’s bitched enough about the trial cutting into his precious campaign time on the trail.

How about, practically nothing? He’s had a couple of deep pocket fundraisers at Mar-A-Lago, He also appeared at the NRA convention in Dallas, always a friendly crowd, and has spoken at a couple of GOP state committee conferences. That’s pretty much it. And to be perfectly honest, there’s no reason for his inactivity.

Before the trial even started, he had a general idea of how long the trial would last, and what his days off would be. All the time in the world to set up a rally a week or two in advance. And as Trump well knows, in the age of social media, it takes very little time to organize a fly-in event at a small airport. Look how many times Trump did it in past campaigns.

I can’t help but wonder with the civil trial and verdict, plus the lien that NY AG James placed on all of his sh*t, it he isn’t judicially prohibited from using Trump Force 1, as well as the smaller jets. That could explain his inactivity. God knows the NRA, as cash strapped as it is would pop for a private jet for their keynote speaker, and the state parties would pay for his transportation as well.

You know what else costs in a rally? The private venue. Security and police overtime. Ticket takers, ushers, and concession workers. Sreets-and-san for barricades and cleanup. With a fly-in, you rent the hangar, and a couple of buses to get people from the parking to the hangar and back. Maybe a cleanup crew. But with his schedule set months in advance, Trump hasn’t traveled or rallied the troops. Why note? You’d think he’d be desperate for the ego stroking.

So what does that have to do with the polls, and problems for His Lowness? This. In this six day break before Trump becomes a convicted felon, he did two things. First, a couple of days ago, he held a rally in a public park in the South Bronx. How cheap can you get? All he had to do was to get a permit, provide cleanup, and post a surety bond for any possible damages.

Hilarity ensued. Trump claimed that he drew 35,000 acolytes. The official city estimate was more like somewhere between 7-10,000, and most of them were bussed in by Trump from remote locations. It’s kind of hard to claim 35,000 people when overhead drone shots show more green grass than attendees. And the majority of actual local residents showed up to jeer, heckle, and protest Traitor Tot. And remember, this is a district that gifted Trump a whopping 17% of the vote in 2020.

The other cluster f*ck was to accept an invitation to speak at the Libertarian National Convention. Take my word for it, Trump was better off in the South Bronx.

He was jeered from  the time he was introduced. After all, these are people who are sick of the two party system, and want another option. Trump blew the doors off when he said, The Libertarian party should nominate Donald Trump for President. But only if you want to win! If you want to just keep collecting your lousy 3% every four years, then don’t do it. Only if you want to win.

Tje only even semi logical or tactical political reason I can think of for Trump to go on these two kamikaze missions is that he was trying to engage in outreach to minorities and opponents. Which is absurd on the face of it. If Trump was going to engage in outreach, the time to do that would have been in early 2017, just like any other incumbent tries to build his base for reelection by reaching out with good will. Instead El Pendejo Presidente did everything in his power to shun inclusion, and narrow his rabid base down into one party of pure faith.

Which tells me two things. First, even the ultimate narcissist Trump knows that the national and swing state polls that show him leading comfortably this far out are full of sh*t. After all, at about the same time in 2012, national polls showed Mitt Romney winning by a comfortable 6% points.

The second one is this. Trump is looking at a different set of polls, which show him in deep kimchi. The most recent poll, taken about 10 days ago shows that 24% of eligible voters, mostly independent voters, which Trump desperately needs, say that if Trump is convicted in the Manhattan trial, they wouldn’t even consider voting for him in November. Trump can’t survive that kind of shrinkage.

Second, all he has to do is to follow the GOP primary elections. In primary after primary, even in deep red states, Trump is facing a rock solid 20% of voters who are backing Nikki Haley, even though she dropped out of the race two months ago. And these aren’t wimpy, indifferent voters, these are core GOP voters that actually show up to vote in the primaries. They’re making a point. They’re done with Trump, and there'[s no reason to believe that a large bloc of them will return to the fold in November, no matter how many times Nikki Haley says she’s voting for him. And you’ll notice that Haley hedged her bets. She never said that she actually endorses Trump, kist that she’d vote for him.

And here’s the cherry on top. If, as I expect, Trump is convicted next week, he’s in the hurt locker. As I wrote perciously, he will need to pre clear his travel with the court while he’s free oni bond pending appeal. Which means a whole ‘nother fleet of high priced lawyers to process the appeal. And if it ends in a hung jury, the Manhattan Da will almost refile the charges, and the legal bill merry-go-round starts all over again.

I can think of no other even passably sane reason for Trump’s latest tactic than minority outreach. But it was patently imbecilic and doomed to failure. There are plenty of other places he could have gone to court black voters, like Milwaukee or Detroit, both competitive battleground states. But Trump’s mental state will not allow him to grovel for votes, which is what one normally does when three runs down and swinging for the fences.

The same thing with the Libertarians. If you’re trying to peel off Libertarian voters, you don’t insult them for being a lousy 3% party. But I have no doubt that Trump knows he’s in deep trouble going into November. Otherwise he would have just stayed on the golf course instead of getting his ass kicked twice.

I thank you for thye privilege of your time.

 

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Trump’s mental and physical health must be so heavily taxed these days, that I can envision a Trump, in a self-protective jacket and secured to a gurney, swinging at invisible bats and large crawly insects because the overload has gone too far for a mere toad like himself …

    There are NO limits to the cruelty and massive ignorance in the life of the shitsinpants, he has run into a period of old antique rhetoric on a dusty shelf in the garden shed and NOTHING TO OFFER, but put downs and other GAG order limits, based on a total panic attack, knowing full well all the times he might be in trouble at a prison full of lifers with nothing to loose …

    What’s that awful odor? A dead mouse in that trap out in the garage, or just Trump flying overhead for his next rant?

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