“The Kids Are Alright.” Better Than That, They’ll Crucify Trump. New Numbers

By now you all know how much of a hidden factor that the 18-29 year old voting bloc is going to be, but wadda I know? Well I know a lot more now, and I’m not sure giddy is quite the word, but damn close to it.

My sincere thanks to the Kennedy Institute School of Politics, and it’s Chair. It turns out that the top dog there is as obsessed on these kids and their collective force, and unlike me, he’s got the training and resources to back him up. And if the Trump campaign already knows what he related on MSNBC today, it’s no wonder Traitor Tot is hawking glitz and bling on HSN and street corners.

When I kept telling you guys and gals that this bloc constituted a hidden army that nobody has a thumb on, I wasn’t kidding or being facetious. In fact it’s starting to look like they’re almost larger than that. Let’s break it down by the numbers.

First the basic setup, which was confirmed for me by the research. As the race sits right now, if Kamala Harris wins the bi-coastal East and West coast blue states, along with strong blue states like Illinois, as long as she can hold the three Blue Wall states, MI, WI, and PA, it’s nitey-nite Traitor Tot. Right now their polling has her with a narrow lead in all three states, along with a lead in the possibly critical Omaha District in Nebraska. So far, so good.

Now for the numbers. The group polled more than two thousand 18-29 voters, as well as conducting focus groups, and doing basic research at the battleground swing state SoS computers for voter registration data. See what I mean about having the resources I lack?

His voter registration research shows that on election day, in the seven critical battleground states alone, there will be an estimated total of 8.7 million 18-29 eligible voters in those seven states alone.. That assays out to a touch more than 1 million voters per battleground state. I don’t care what you call it, that’s an army.

And they are not marching to the MAGA drum. When Biden was in the race, he held a 13 point advantage over El Pendejo ex Presidente in 18-29 voters, short of the edge that propelled the Democrats in 2020 and 2022. Since Kamala Harris entered the race, that lead has bulged to a 33 point advantage, larger than the 2020 and 2022 bulges.

And it only gets worse for the Pampers President. They also polled and focus grouped voter intensity. And it’s not pretty for Team Tubby. Democrats posted a strong 74% certain to vote response, and some indicating that they had already voted. But when you look at the Il Douche side, only 60% were highly likely to vote or had already done so. That 14 point gap is a killer.

I am not going off on a hypothetical tangent here, nor am I indulging in theoretical outcomes. But I do want to draw a couple of correlations based solely on the numbers as they exist. On the one hand, Harris has a 33 point advantage of an estimated bloc of 1 million voters. And on the other hand, her slice of the pie is 14% more likely to come out and vote than His Lowness’s. To me that rumble sounds like an avalanche getting ready to roll downhill.

So as you can see, the 18-29 vote in the battleground states is higlly encouraging for Harris. But now let’s use those base numbers to extrapolate outward to get a little larger, clearer picture.

The given 8.7 million eligible 18-29 voters quoted only covers the key battleground states. But Harris’s 33 point bulge in 18-29 voters is a national composite lead. Which raises an interesting scenario to consider.

There are three states North Carolina, Florida and Ohio that are not included in the polls battleground states, although North Carolina sure as hell is now. But since the polls and focus groups standards seem pretty exacting and universal, let’s just assume that within normal population variation, the same basic numbers hold true there too.

In their issue polling, abortion rights ranks much higher for the 18-29 group than other groups, and it’s a motivating factor. In North Carolina Marc Robinson is as toxic as ricin. And Ohio and Florida have highly unpopular GOP Senate candidate on the ballot, as well as reproductive rights measures. This kind of polling information may be one of the reasons that the Democrats aren’t quite ready yet to slam the door on potentially making ground in both of those states.

I keep my word. I told y’all that as I got more solid, reliable numbers, I’d bring them to you. I carried the mail, and this envelope is starting to look like a birthday card from your grandmother with a nice fat check in it. 38 days to go. Keep punching and keep the faith.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.