Be careful what you wish for
I saw something on MSNBC today that damn near floored me. Right now, most pundits feel that the GOP is on track to retake the House in 2022. But I have written previously that after decades of the Democrats being the ones who always seemed to Snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but turned that dubious honor over to the GOP after their compliance with Trump’s Big Lie cost them two Georgia Senate seats, and with it the majority.
The GOP has had a decades long love affair with overturning Roe v Wade, in order to keep their whack-a-mole Evangelical base compliant. But that has come with an increased risk over the last 25 years, as legalized abortion became more popular. Like Social Security and Medicare, abortion became a 3rd rail that the GOP promised but never actually touched.
But Texas’s anti abortion law, SB8, was a poster child for the law of unintended consequences. It was blatantly unconstitutional in it’s inception. It was meant to rule by intimidation, scaring people away from assisting in an abortion, but without any actual lawsuits actually being filed, laying the law open to legal challenge. But then lawsuits were filed, the law was challenged in court, and the SCOTUS threw Texas a curve ball by allowing the law to stand while it is fought out. And as a result, Texas GOP state lawmakers are fearing for their 2022 political lives from the backlash.
And now, it looks like the national GOP is about to supercharge the Texas law on steroids. Because tomorrow are the oral arguments before the Supreme Court in the restrictive Mississippi 16 week abortion law that actively seeks to overturn Roe v Wade. And in an interview this morning on the steps of the court, a female activist said, If these clowns want to see what a real revolution looks like, overturn Roe v Wade, and watch the ballot boxes in November.
Little wonder. A recent poll showed 64% national support for Roe, and 75% said that abortion should be a choice left to a woman and her doctor. A 2019 poll showed Roe with 61% support, and I was unable to find a poll in the last 5 years where Roe was any less than +14 in the polling. That woman knew well of what she spoke.
If, as expected, the court effectively overturns Roe, it may be the end of the GOP. After all, look at 2018. The Democrats picked up 40 seats in the House, but it didn’t bleed over as much into state races. And in 2020, GOP white suburban women bounced Trump, and yet gave the GOP most of their 2018 losses back in the House.
But not this time. Because the entire GOP writ large has gone all in on banning abortion, at the state and local level as well as the national level. And that’s why the Texas GOP state legislature is in mortal fear for their lives. News Flash! They call it a third rail for a reason, morons!
And voter suppression won’t save then this time. Because this isn’t a mob of young, black, and brown voters with their panties in a bunch. Cast your mind back to the Women’s March of January 21st, 2017. Now imagine that massive army of pink pussy hats descending on voting locations nationwide. Hell bent to get their reproductive rights back, trailing with their husbands, who don’t want 12 kids either behind them.
If this comes to pass, then the Democrats ride into 2023 with a clear mandate. They should have a comfortable cushion in the senate to make Manchin and Sinema irrelevant in demolishing the filibuster once and for all, and codify Roe v Wade into law. It will also be an open invitation to reform the Supreme Court, and restore order to the madness of King Donald. The pathway will be open for immigration and police reform, and the Democrats can set themselves up in a fine position for 2024.
Be careful what you wish for. The GOP spent decades writing checks about overturning Roe v Wade. It was only a matter of time until somebody took one of those checks to the tellers window to cash it in. And in this case, cashing that check may just overdraft the GOP’s account. Don’t touch that dial.
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