How to elect a Speaker from Bloomberg:
McCarthy, whose quest to become speaker enters its third day, needs a majority of the House members present and voting to get the job. If all 434 members vote, that means he need to 218 to win. The most votes he’s received in six ballots is 203.
But there’s a loophole — if some members vote “present,” instead of selecting a specific candidate, they aren’t included in the denominator of McCarthy’s must-win majority fraction. That effectively lowers the number of total votes McCarthy needs to win.
Point of order, Madam Clerk. The number of people voting “present” also lowers the number of people needed for Hakeem Jeffries to win, along with the chance that a GOP member or two isn’t in the House when the 37th vote is taken or too many GOP Reps. vote “present.” (We’ve already had ten votes).
So, the people who vote present aren’t counted among the votes. But let’s say that in the chaos of a 14th vote for speaker, one, two, or three, Republicans vote “present” – lowering the number needed to win for both McCarthy and Jeffries.
To this point, Jeffries has had 212 votes in each session vote. The GOP has done a good job of ensuring that the 212 isn’t enough to constitute a “majority of the people present and voting. But, as explained by MSNBC’s Greg Jarrett, this morning:
My point is I don’t think we’ll be back at full attendance until perhaps Monday. So let’s say we solve this Monday. Mccarthy needs to move 15 of these 20 and convince the rest to vote present basically is the math that he needs. The number can slide a little bit of folks he can’t move that he can get to vote present.
If he has too many folks vote present, the threshold is lowered enough that Hakeem Jeffries, oops, slips into the speakership. While I’ve been very bearish on this show and others that I don’t think there is going to be a West Wingesque unity speaker that gets chosen, I think it is entirely possible, not a high chance, but certainly not a zero percent chance, there is a failure to do math correctly and too many people are absent or present, and somebody who is not supposed to be in a Republican majority gets named speaker, namely Hakeem Jeffries.
Okay, okay, okay. I hear you, dear reader. Snowball’s chance in hell that ever happens.
Hear me out. If there were ever a party caucus capable of making such a mistake, it would be this version of the Republican party. Remember, people like Louie Gohmert vote in these elections, and people like Lauren Boebert and Paul Gosar. And also, remember, that the number of people in the chamber also lowers the vote total, and – again, if you have two members missing and five or six voting “present,” suddenly Hakeem Jeffries has the majority of the people in the house voting on the motion, and he is speaker of the House.
This would never, ever be a problem if there were only five to six votes for speaker. But if, by Monday, there still isn’t an agreement and we get to the 14th or 15th vote, and the shifting numbers voting present versus voting for McCarthy (trying to eke out a victory) and only two people screw up, perhaps one person missing the session (got the wrong time, which almost happened as a Republican Congressman was speaking to a group of reporters in the hall when another group of Republicans practically carried him into the House) and perhaps one person votes present but was supposed to vote McCarthy or Donald and…
Jeffries is Speaker.
Yes, the Republicans would still have a majority and could vote bills down. But only the Speaker can bring a proposed bill to the floor for a vote. (There are some obscure and difficult ways to get a bill to the floor without the Speaker putting it to a vote but in practice, it’s usually the speaker) The Speaker also appoints members to committees. Who wouldn’t love to see Jim Jordan leading the Land Management or Forestry Committee? (These are made up of committees, there are ones just as obscure.)
So, yes – it would be the political screw-up of all time should the Republicans misjudge their situation and have Gohmert, half-asleep, vote “Aye!” (Which is like a present), and that could be all that’s needed if all those who were allowed to vote “present” had already voted.
As Garret says, it’s unlikely, but it is not impossible, nor is it even almost impossible. This is the Republican caucus we’re talking about.
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[email protected], @JasonMiciak: SUBSTACK: HABERMAN CUTS GOP LIKE A KNIFE, EXTOLS PELOSI GENIUS
So far, thinking of what could be the worst thing to happen has been the best way to predict what the R side is going to do.
I really don’t see that changing.
They presumably have at least one staffer, if no elected, who can count.
As Murfster noted last night this would be a highly dangerous strategy on McCarthy’s part. You’ve laid out just how carefully the counting of votes for this would have to be done, and unless the GOP gets McCarthy over the line on the first attempt things could get hurried and tricky, and one or more folks might misunderstand how they are suppposed to vote. Unlike other votes I gather in a recorded roll call vote someone can’t go back and change their vote.
Since what my until then lifelong dream (fantasy is more accurate) of the Cubs being in the World Series before I died (not only did they make it but actually won!) came true I’ve replaced it with others. It keeps changing, and now with this situation I have a new ultimate fantasy. It involves someone who is probably older, although perhaps not but is a semi-sane Republican with old-school tendencies. You know, hard-core low taxes and limited regulation stuff and the like. And just as some folks in recent years took a hard look at how the Party changed under Trump and said “fuckit – I’m outa here” there might be one or two who will do some counting of their own. Because they’ve decided they too are done and out of fucks to give anymore. And when their name is called they DON’T call out McCarthy’s name as they were expected to do. They vote present. Or, before their name is called leave the chamber, perhaps for an “emergency” head call or whatever reason and don’t return until after the roll call is done. If at all.
That would result in Speaker Jeffries. Were that highly unlikely but not completely out of the question thing happen I wonder what those who in nominating speeches for Donalds who have touted the GOP’s “diversity” (wow, they doubled their number of black Representatives – from TWO to FOUR! I for one am rather less than impressed) and lamented the McCarthy supporting colleagues keep failing to make history by giving the gavel to the Chamber’s first African American Speaker would feel if that new Speaker was Jeffries? I think answering journalists questions about it might make for some great TV.
McCarthy has proven to be so dumb at…well, everything political but ESPECIALLY vote-counting. Therefore I look for him to fumble this football if that is indeed his gameplan. It would be a just and fitting punishment for all responsible parties involved.