The Con To End All Cons?

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Oh Lordy, please let them not have been just pulling my leg tonight. When I saw the segment on MSNBC, I started vibrating like a tuning fork. Teri said that I looked like Roger Rabbit when The Judge kept tapping out shave-and-a-haircut, two bits. But if it ends up being true, I may get the chance to finally take the victory lap to end all victory laps.

The report was fairly short and too the point. Apparently, in some quarters of the Trump campaign, they’re beginning to spread the word that everything is going according to plan. After all, Trump still has the loyalty of his base, and the same winding, narrow path to reelection still exists that he took four years ago. Hell, he might actually be in a slightly better position than he might even be a bit better off than 4 years ago as an incumbent.

Sweet Jesus, my dreams are coming true. A brief history lesson. Back in August of 2018 I occasionally started writing articles in which I pointed to the likelihood of an impending Blue Tsunami as opposed to just a blue wave. It wasn’t just bullshit. I pointed out factors like current polling, both national and local, the insanely high number of GOP incumbents retiring indicating their own internal polling showing rough seas ahead, and Trump’s inability to present a coherent strategy or message, hamstringing lower ballot candidates. All of those ended up being true.

I was slapped around in the comments like a puppy that can’t quite find the paper. The main thrust was Hey! Don’t get cocky! Remember 2016! The polls were wrong then, and they could be just as wrong now! I finally had to post an article in which I reminded everybody that the electoral temper in 2016 was a perfect storm, and that in fact the national polls predicted the final national vote total and percentages almost perfectly. But the earth shattering g shock of Trump’s electoral victory in 2016 made the Democrats into a bunch of nervous Nellies, unwilling to believe their own eyes, and trust their own guts and instincts.

And now Don the Con is selling the same damn snake oil to whatever remnants there are of the GOP faithful? Oh please Dios, let it be so! because there are two vastly different factors between 2018 and today. First, in 2018 Democrats were so spooked by the election in 2016 that they refused to acknowledge positive news that were right in front of their faces. In 2020, the Republicans are about to blow that same pixie dust up their own asses to reject the statistical information that is right in front of their noses. And that’s just for starters.

Second, the public awareness and experience with Donald Trump is radically different than it was in 2016. In 2016, there was a large swath of the electorate that was so completely fed up with politics as usual that they were willing to take a plunge on a complete outsider, and a successful business mogul as well. And like all good sheeple, they bought into his TV persona instead of researching his actual total failure in business. They have now had a 3 year education into the qualifications of El Pendejo Presidente.

But more importantly, people have now had three years of practical experience in living under the thumb of Il Douche. The 2018 midterms were a spotlight on the nations dissatisfaction with His Lowness. He’s lost college educated white women, the bulwark of GOP suburban domination. Ge’s lost college educated white men, he is 26% behind Biden with women, and he’s losing Evangelicals and seniors. And with his casual disdain of our service members, and the sacrifices they make for his own person gain, look for his support to shrink there too.

This is a different world than it was in 2016, and there is one critical thing to remember. Donald Trump won the electoral college in 2016 by a margin of 77.000 micro targeted votes in three states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But electoral votes are not assigned according to district votes, the winner of the state vote total takes all. The loss of white women voters, the loss of white college educated males, the loss of seniors, the increasing of enthusiasm of African American voters, any and all of those can swamp the razor thin margin that Trump pulled off in 2016.

Trump is once again going all in on the economy, everything depends on that. But that argument is a chimera, which they are about to find out. His idea of a positive economy is a stock market that comes roaring back. But even Kevin Hassett, his economic advisor, admits that unemployment will likely remain stubbornly over 9% well into next year. But if the coronavirus pandemic proved nothing else, it proved that there is a vast gulf between the Wall Street Economy which Trump loves to pimp, and the Main Street Economy that the rest of us live under. A Dow Jones average at 30,000 isn’t going to do anybody sitting at home collecting about 70% pay on unemployment much good come November.

Right now the Trump campaign is seriously considering giving up on Michigan as a lost cause. He’s behind in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania too. And if that wasn’t bad enough, he’s basically in a dead heat with Biden in Iowa, Arizona, Texas and North Carolina, and within the margin of error in Ohio and Florida. Regardless of the eventual outcome, this means that the Trump campaign is going to have to spend a shitload of money in expensive advertising markets where they should be safe. Not only doe this stretch them thin in other places, but it also exposes already vulnerable GOP incumbents in those states as even more vulnerable.

Look. I paid my dues, I spent the second half of 2018 trying to show everybody the simple facts on the ground. But if this reporting is true, what it tells me is that the Trump campaign has looked at the map, studied the numbers, done internal polling, and come to their conclusion. Basically, Screw the facts and figures, let’s do like the boss, and go for denial and delusion instead. What the fuck? It worked the first time, didn’t it? 

To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen

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