In my article about Florida Governor Ron DeSantis being by no means a sure thing, one of you wonderful readers, in the comments, posted that you still concerns about a possible dark horse John Kasich run, sliding by on the same moderate voters while the Trombies execute their circular firing squad.
In a word, Fuggadaboudit! In a different year and cycle, and with a different GOP, I would share your sentiment, but not necessarily your concern. If Kasich were able to slide down his own lane, he’d lose the Trump base, and be easy pickings in November. But Kasich won’t even try it. Because this is this year and cycle, and this GOP, and while Trump may not be as popular or dominant, Trumpism still rules the party.
Here’s how I see it. In 2016 you had 15 more or less sane moderate GOP candidates, and one lunatic howler monkey who pulled it off. As I see it, in 2024 you’re going to have an entire island of screeching howler monkeys, with possibly one sane candidate trying to pull off a Clinton ’92.
The handwriting is already on the wall, and for good reason. For me, no matter who runs for the GOP nomination in 2024, the GOP already knows it’s going to be a one off election. Meaning one that won’t be replicated again in 2028. Here’s why.
Let’s say that Traitor Tot runs again in 2024. Either way you look at it, he’s history, it’s his last hurrah. It’s simple math and logic. If he wins, he’s done. He can’t run again in 2028 for a 3rd term. And if he loses, in reality for the 3rd time, he’s toast. By 2028 he’ll be far too old to run again, he and Romney McDaniel will be long gone from the party, and some of the appeal of Trumpism will already have begun to fade.
Let’s look at the roster of who’s at least making moo-moo noises about running. Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pimpeo, John Bolton, and Mike Pence. What do all of them have in common? They are all either former acolytes or appointees of Trump. Haley was Trump’s UN Ambassador, Bolton his NSA, Pimpeo was his SoS. Noem and DeSantis were both early acolytes and Trump favorites. Even Pence was his VP. In other words, all of them have at least name recognition and street creds with Trump-‘s base. And Trump will live for playing them off against each other.
Now let’s look at who’s not making moo-moo noises, or even giving out 10 gallon hints or whispers at setting up exploratory committees. Larry Hogan, sane and popular 2 term GOP Governor. He’s not about to let his reputation get dragged through this mosh pit mud. Same thing for Chris Sununu, who was just reelected to another term as Governor. He could do it without risking his position, but he’s not touching this with fire tongs. Renegade traitor Josh Hawley has already announced he’s not running, preferring to try to keep his Senate seat. Cancun Teddy Cruz is largely radio silent on his prospects as well. Even popular, newly turfed out Doug Ducey from Arizona is taking a pass, preferring to run against Gallego and Sinema for the Senate seat instead.
And what else do they all have in common? All of them are young enough to sit out the shit show of 2024, and wait for the air to clear in 2028. And one more thing they all have in common. They have all already come to the stark realization that it doesn’t really matter which of those flaming muck bills wins the nomination, they’re almost certainly dead meat in November. And if they and I are right, 2028 is when the real battle for the soul of the GOP will take place.
And for those of you who think that DeSantis is the early, and almost prohibitive frontrunner, let me give you two cautionary words, Scott Walker. And as I explain, you’ll see that the similarities are striking.
Back in 2016 Walker, then the 2nd term Governor of battleground state Wisconsin, was a GOP wunderkind. And why not? In the name of conservatism he had raped and pillaged union rights, spent money like a drunken sailor, survived a recall election, and gerrymandered the shit out of Wisconsin.
Walker was one of the first, if not the first to announce his candidacy. But Walker turned out to be a one-trick-pony. He was from a state with a distinctive, not nationally representative racial population, his national name recognition was nil, and he had the taste and personality of poi. Also, he couldn’t fundraise if we went around in a Shriners fez. He was also the first to drop out, months before the primaries, using his bailout speech to urge the rest of the field to unite behind one candidate, seeing as I already had the risk of letting Trump skate to the nomination with a 34% primary vote tally.
Any of that sound familiar? Like Walker, DeSantis is a one-trick-pony. Like Walker, DeSantis is going to try playing to a national base with state platforms and ideas. While DeSantis is a prolific fundraiser in Florida, he’s yet to earn his chops on the national scene. Like Walker, DeSantis is not using his early start to get the jump on visiting key early primary states, and establishing his narrative and name recognition. And like walker, DeSantis has the taste and personality of unflavored seltzer water.
There’s your pregame warmup. If you thought that 2016 was bad, with one raving lunatic stomping all over the GOP’s version of the chess team, try to imagine what it’s going to be like with an entire wing of the mental defective ward all running around in the dining room, chucking tin plates and paper cups at each other. This is gonna be one long 18 months.
You make a damned good case for why so many potential GOPers are making noises but will more than likely pass on 2024. All are young enough to make a serious run in 2028 if they can keep from dropping an anvil, or a fake gold plated toilet from Mar A Lago on their foot. And that’s why I was one of those commenting on Kasich. By 2028 he’ll be OLD compared to the other candidates and not stand a chance. And while I think he’d like to be President (he did try after all and as Lincoln said once the Presidential grub begins to gnaw on a man it will forever do so) he knows it’s probably not in the cards. Unless he tries it now. This would be his last shot.
Here’s the other thing. Like anyone in politics at his age who’s earned a credible legacy he likely wants history to remember him well. If he takes on Trump his reputation will take a hit for sure. Especially in the short-term. But in the long-term, fifty years from now he’d be remembered kindly, and perhaps even with a touch of heroism for being the one to begin the purging of Trump/Trumpism from the GOP. I don’t think he could thread the needle to the nomination BUT he could force the GOP to finally do what you’ve so often said they need to do – take a hit for one Presidential cycle and regroup. Kasich has spent a lifetime devoted to hard core conservatism and all that was built over the past fifty years went up in smoke due to Trump. If they are even to get back to that old GOP, or a reasonable facsimile of it someone has to fall on his/her sword.
Usurla mentioned the delicious possibility that Liz Cheney might make a run, if only as a Trump spoiler. Her father is, incredibly still out there in Wyoming and not dead & buried just yet. He could make some calls and get her enough funding to mount a campaign through the entire primary season. Maybe not a first-class one but enough of one that she’d get plenty of attention and force Trump to deal with her candidacy. And, if he tries to duck debating her will she ever roast his fat ass! Kasich might have more trouble raising the needed money but there are still plenty of old and rich GOP stalwarts who are horrified at what’s coming from the GOP House and know damn well it’s all because of Trump. They hate having to pay a single dollar in taxes and any govt. regulation with equal passion BUT they need a stable economy and until Trump and his MAGA followers are flushed down the toilet at Mar A Lago their fortunes are at risk.
That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if Kasich gets in. He might have some of those mega donors imploring him to do so. I’m not sure he will, but again he might be the old GOP guard’s best chance of forcing the Party to fall back and get its shit together – sans Trump and MAGA. Even if it costs them the WH in 2024.
A Bush lost in Texas and a Cheney in Wyoming. The Bush baker wing of the GOP party is dead. Maybe some moderates are still out there in the wilderness, but from what I can tell it is crazy turtles all the way down. The donors/insiders don’t really control the process anymore. Of all the candidates mentioned, I don’t see one viable republican. There is no bench after trump. Democrats have the same problem. Stick with Biden but he has his issues. Right now he crushes all of the republican candidates. But if he falters there is not much behind him that is sweeping the nation. 2024 scares the shit out of me.
I just wish Biden were 10 yrs. younger , he a good man .