Let’s start with a couple of simple facts. Not polls, facts. As of today there have been more than 55 million total early ballots cast nationwide, early in person as well as mail in ballots. That’s about 36% of the total ballots cast in the record 2020 election, and more than the total votes cast in the 2002 midterms. So enthusiasm is high, on both sides.
But while we of course have no idea of who those voters actually voted for, we can still make some logical extrapolations. And you’ll like this, because I’m not talking about party affiliation, I’m going a little deeper than that, to a more intriguing statistic.
We already knew, going into the final week of the campaign that we had a record gender gap going down, with Harris clobbering Trump among women voters, and Traitor Tot pasting Harris pretty good among male voters, although not to the extent of the advantage he held over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
We know something else too. We know that abortion is a major issue driving people to the polls. In several recent polls, abortion has finally overtaken inflation and the economy as the top issue driving voters to the polls.
Which is what makes this new information so fascinating, and also informative. In three battleground states, AZ, NC, and GA, in the raw number of votes cast, women are outperforming men at the polls by an average 12-14 points. This has nothing to do with polling, but everything to do with common sense.
The way the early voting is going, with many states terminating early voting on Friday if over the weekend, it’s highly likely that by the time early voting closes in the final states, we will likely have approximately 42-45% of the total votes that will be cast already in the can.
Harris is mashing Trump with women voters by 18 points, while Trump leads with men by 14 points. That’s a +3 for Harris right off the bat. And we know from that statistic I just threw out there that women voters are outperforming their male counterpoints by 12-14 points in those critical battleground states.
So if we consider those two simple facts, using the abortion issue as a top 3 motivator, and considering the fact that Traitor Tot has no ground game and is aggressively courting low turnout propensity voters, while the Democrats are balls-to-the-wall on voter turnout, including courting Nikki Haley voters, it isn’t unreasonable to conclude that Harris should come out of the early voting in those three critical states with a 10-12 point edge. Or if you want to be more conservative, a minimum 7-9 point edge. And that’s not even counting the 3 point gender gap in Harris’s favor.
With anything even like that kind of a gap, especially with the fact that there will be almost half of the total votes cast already in, that’s going to be a heavy lift for the GOP to overcome. Especially if you consider the fact that the GOP is actually cannibalizing their election day voting edge for early voting, with no way to replace them while the Democrats are courting late undecided voters.
And more good news from the legal front. Earlier today on Deadline: White House, voter rights legal savant Marc Elias had an interesting observation for Nicolle. He said, Here’s one for you. I already know that Trump is going to lose Pennsylvania for the simple reason that Trump already knows he’s going to lose Pennsylvania. And I know that because he just filed a totally specious and ridiculous lawsuit claiming voter suppression in PA, without a shred of standing or evidence.
Here’s the 411. With election day in person voting, as long as you’re in line when the polls close, you get to stay in line to vote. Apparently PA has a similar law regarding the last day for pickiing up absentee or mail in ballots. As long as you’re in line by 5PM, you can stay in line to get your absentee ballot.
Traitor Tot’s legal toads filed a lawsuit claiming violations of that rule based on complaints from three voters in different locations. Considering the fact that we’re talking about His Lowness’s legal misfit toys here, are you going to be surprised when I tell you it’s all bullsh*t? The first two cretins couldn’t even provide the location where the event took place, so there’s no way to even investigate. The third one at least provided a location, but it turned out that the dumbass didn’t have the proper identification on him to receive the ballot. But they filed the goddamned thing anyway, to start banging The Big Steal 2.0 drum even before any votes are counted.
One last thing. Apparently the fallout from that Puerto Rico is a floating Garbage pile has grown legs. Field reporters are having no trouble finding Puerto Ricans who are fed up, telling the reporters that this insult only reopened the wounds of Hurricane Maria, where Trump called them poor, withheld disaster aid and chucked paper towels at them. One activist related a phone call from an enraged Puerto Rican who early voted for Trump two weeks ago. But he’s making amends by calling every person he knows, hitting them with these insults, and urging them to get in line and vote for Kamala Harris.
Six days to go. Kamala Harris has the pedal to the metal, hitting three critical swing states today with rallies, while Traitor Tot was on Hannity, whining and refusing to condemn his idiot court jester from the MSG rally. We’ll know soon enough. Keep punching, and keep the faith.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Until the votes are counted…
Trump would not need to brag about a “little secret” he shares with Speaker Mike Johnson if he were confident that he’s winning. Whatever the secret is, you can bet that it’s an illegal conspiracy to overturn the election results.
I saw something intriguing today on MSNBC. I think it was David Plough doing the talking and I wish he’d been pressed for details to back up what was said. (I was in the middle of something else and not paying full attention) We all have gotten used to general elections and Democrats racking up a big lead in early/absentee voting and the GOP mostly waiting until election day to cast their ballots. Hence the narrative that we sit on pins and needles seeing the early leads in states diminish during the evening. Those early/absentee votes are in most states (notably STILL not in PA however) are tabulated and released pretty quickly. However as I said since the GOP voters mostly wait until election day things even out.
As we also know in so many places officials limit the number of polling places in areas with lots of Democrats causing insane waits to cast one’s vote. It’s pure voter suppression of course – trying to get people to give up. Hell, in Georgia they passed a law last time to prevent people waiting in line from being able to accept water and snacks/food! Anyway, GOPers seldom see such waits. Plenty of locations to vote. Typically from the time they park their car until they are back in it headed home (or wherever) is less than a half hour. If that. So it makes sense they’d wait until election day. I have to admit missing the excitement from back when I’d cast my own ballot on election day.
What stuck in my mind and later had me wishing I’d paid close attention during the whole segment was the discussion about Republicans voting early in surprising numbers. AND that DEMOCRATS were planning to cast ballots on election day itself! Less than an hour later as I said I wish I’d been paying closer attention. I’d sure as hell like details on just what led the pundit to make that claim.
I hope he was right. Because if he is, and our traditional early lead isn’t as big as it normally is Trump/MAGA could be in for a bad night. I’ll guarantee you Trump is planning to, late in the evening claim (since the same day votes will be announced but a huge chunk of the early/absentee votes won’t have been) he “won” and therefore it’s over. He won that critical state. If you recall that’s exactly what he did in 2020. It was a huge part of his Big Lie in fact. Republicans in the PA legislature want him to be able to do it again. THAT is why they wouldn’t finally change their laws and allow early/mail in ballots to be processed prior to election day. That process takes time, and gives Trump his ‘red mirage.’
IF what I heard is correct, this won’t happen in PA or any other state that matters. Democrats might have a mid evening lead that worries us because it’s smaller than we’re used to seeing, but if a large chunk are indeed intentionally waiting for election day that means even in PA THEIR votes will show up with all the GOP ones. Which means no red mirage for Trump to hang his hat on.
Keep an eye out on this. If we hear more actual experts mention this it will ease my mind and a lot of others. In fact, this could be one of those pieces of information that has the Harris campaign showing some swagger and the Trump campaign increasingly in panic mode. If he’s not leading in critical swing states, especially PA on election night Big LIE 2.0 is going to have an awful lot of trouble getting traction. Even in MAGA world.
Pittsburgh and environs has a VERY LARGE Puerto Rican population. The MSG debacle may have cost Fat Donnie (his mob nickname) Pennsylvania, though he lost here already in 2020.
On GA: they also closed down polling places near bus stops and Sunday voting because Black.voters often don’t have cars,and USE public transportation and church buses after services. And opened ones in primarily white areas to.make it easier for the GOP.
Can someone confirm this? I heard that if you cast an early / mail-in ballot and have a change of heart, you can go to your polling place on election day and cast a new ballot, which will supersede the early one.
Wow, that would be unheard of. Also be VERY wary of casting two ballots as we all know that is a “no no” and would just encourage more craziness and conspiracy theories. Anyone else heard of this interesting development in the election world of wild and wooly information?
States have their own rules, but I think it would be unlikely. They’d have to “uncount” each person (not just president) previously voted for, and then count the new ballot. The logistics would be headache-inducing.
I voted this past Tuesday. While marking my ballot, I spaced out and voted “for” AND “against” the same bond question. I realized my goof immediately, and went to the poll worker. Could I tear up my ballot in front of them and get a new one? No. I had to surrender my voting-number ticket so they could mark it invalid, then they issued me a new voting-number ticket and a new ballot.
That care and attention to detail happened when I [a] hadn’t left the room and [b] hadn’t fed my ballot into the counting-machine. I don’t see how they could possibly “fix” a “changed-my-mind” ballot. And as Laurette Looney said, doing so would undoubtedly lead to wild conspiracy theories about how often it had happened, and if people had their voted “fixed” — changed — without their authorization. Cue the outrage about a “stolen” election.
If a mail-in ballot was damaged and therefore invalid — EG, the ballots that were damaged in the drop-box fires — the voter would be given a replacement ballot. Maybe that’s what you’ve heard about. But I’m pretty sure that “I voted, but now I’ve changed my mind” wouldn’t wash.
Pittsburgh and environs has a VERY LARGE Puerto Rican population. The MSG debacle may have cost Fat Donnie (his mob nickname) Pennsylvania, though he lost here already in 2020.