Ok, so you might see Kari Lake’s name and think “ho hum” but what’s taking place in the GOP, the Senate GOP in particular has implications nationwide. Kari Lake, who still won’t admit she lost the Governor’s race or that Trump lost the 2020 election isn’t going to be Trump’s VP pick. She is however the GOP candidate that will try to obtain a Senate seat in Arizona and that’s a problem Republicans are debating how to handle. Discussions, hell debate is quietly and perhaps furiously taking place right now and decisions both now and this summer regarding Kari Lake will have major implications for who will control the Senate come January when the new Congress convenes. Simply put they have to decide whether to make only a token effort on Lake’s behalf and use limited resources elsewhere or risk resources in what’s probably a lost cause and see other states that could have better used them fail to elect Republicans.
If there was no Trump factor (along with what his actions wrought) the plain fact is that in a closely divided Senate the GOP would wind up with at least a two or three seat majority. Arizona isn’t purple, at least not yet. So that should be a pickup since it’s an open seat with Sinema, elected as a Democrat but turned Independent isn’t running to retain her seat. She alienated damned near everyone from both Parties and likely was headed for defeat even with a primary challenge Then there’s West by god Virginia where even if he’d run Manchin had no chance this year. So that’s a sure pickup. Right there with those two flips the Senate would be back in GOP hands.
With more Democrats in really tough races than Republicans as I said odds were very good the the GOP could pick up a seat in Montana and Ohio too if the GOP fielded strong candidates. Yes, Cruz down in Texas is wildly unpopular but he was six years ago and Beto O’Rourke had everything going for him. We keep having dreams, well fantasies to be honest about Texans finally seeing the light and they keep being dashed. Cruz’s win six years ago was proof that in a statewide race Democrats are screwed. So the GOP didn’t have to worry. They hate Cruz too but he’s Republican and votes the way they want and that’s what matters so GOPers put up with him including his fellow GOP Senators.
So even if Republicans only picked up one of either the Montana or Ohio seats (likely they’d get at least one) they were in good shape. Then there’s Wisconsin and Michigan which tend to always be close, so that might allow for padding the margin still more. That’s how things looked. By the end of the year however it finally started dawning on Mitch McConnell (and others) that the abortion issue wasn’t going away. That people, women in particular would “finally get over it.” Still their prospects seemed good. And to be honest we are still going to have to do some heavy lifting to even wind up with a 50-50 Senate and that “power sharing” business again.
That’s why this article by Politico is something you should read and file away in the back of your mind because by convention time we’ll be heading into brutal final stretch. So will the GOP and they are not at all happy (understandable) that what should have been a relatively certain flip of Senate control back their way is now going to be a real fight. And worse, that when the dust settles Democrats will still remain in control of the chamber. The linked article starts off noting that the GOP figured Lake would win the GOP primary with or without national Party help so they might as well embrace her as their candidate.
Now they are facing the consequences. Lake has been a MAGA queen and lightening rod, running both for Senate and VP (she hopes) at the same time. She’s on record and has a history on abortion that’s wildly out of step with her state, AND they have a Constitutional Amendment to enshrine abortion rights on the ballot that will drive up turnout of people who will never, ever vote for Lake. Plus, although her opponent is solidly progressive efforts to paint him as LIBERAL! don’t seem to be damaging Ruben Gallego the way that tactic used to. He’s doing better with voters and way better with fundraising.
Make no mistake. Arizona is still a red state but it’s become light red and therein lies the GOP’s problem. Lake isn’t the only GOPer on the ballot, there is all the state stuff/candidates as well and more or less abandoning Lake will infuriate MAGAs in the state. Perhaps even beyond Arizona. However, someone as savvy as McConnell knows that both Tester in Montana and Brown in Ohio are terrific campaigners and well-liked in their respective solid red states. It will take a “full court press” to unseat either of them.
In Wisconsin, because of the abortion issue that state where things are always notoriously close Baldwin is still vulnerable but not as much as she would have been. Over in Michigan, the state seems blue but it’s more purple and events in Gaza have done enormous damage to Biden and Democrats overall. The state will be much more “swingy” than it probably would have been. If all that doesn’t make it complicated enough, to McConnell’s and the GOP’s great delight former GOP Governor Larry Hogan who’d long flatly stated he wasn’t interested in moving up to federal office decided to run for that state’s open seat. Unlike some prior GOPers who became Gov. in that blue state Hogan was popular and remains so. Democrats are going to have to work hard to keep retiring Ben Cardin’s seat.
Now let’s add in the Trump factor and more to the point his stranglehold on fundraising. The RNC and its donor list is strictly for Trump and nobody else. The normal way of doing business where both the DNC and RNC provided support not just to Presidential candidates but down the ballot doesn’t exist in the GOP anymore as of last month. Trump’s sucking up the small donor money and literally starting to extort mega donors as I wrote about earlier this week. I’m sure big oil won’t be the only group he tells Donate to my campaign and I’ll be nice, and it you don’t? Well, you don’t want to find out.  So, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee is pretty much on its own. Both for fundraising and other resources like mobilization of voters/GOTV for Republicans, especially in blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan and now Maryland. And, as I said some special effort will be needed even in the red states of Montana and Ohio to get them to vote out admired Senators who have a history of delivering for their constituents.
Resources used in Arizona might as well be flushed down Trump’s fake gold toilet. And with the exception of West Virginia (where Jim Justice is rich enough to easily take care of things himself) can make all the difference. Too many close races and too little resources. But if the GOP does NOT put real resources into Arizona it could turn the state from light red to light purple and that would be a disaster. And again, it will anger MAGAs in other places.
I realize this is one of those technical, tedious pieces I became infamous for but I hope you’ve stuck with it. And that you’ll click on the link to the Politico article. It too is a complicated read but this stuff matters. Yes, details are often boring but small details can turn out to have huge consequences. A missed portion of a state meeting of county election officials by a county clerk led to to design a funky ballot in Palm Beach County that cost Al Gore the state of Florida and the 2000 election. (Other counties had better designs that would have prevented the problem in Palm Beach) A rhetorical flourish by Lee as forces converged on Gettysburg caused one of his commanders to hold back and rest before taking a critical hill Lee needed to control, during which time Union troops went up the other side and were never dislodged, and it was key to the eventual outcome.
Arcane things like allocating money and other resources for a national election with lots of moving parts, when the need is greater than the resources available means decisions being made right now could affect the outcome of the election. Not just the Presidency but the Senate and what kind of judges and Justices that will be appointed is we retain control of the WH and Senate.
You need to know and to think about this. Many of us have limited money and or time (say to make phone calls to voters to get them to vote) and will be asked to provide donations of time and or money need to know how complex the puzzle is when making choices about whether and how much to help. Knowing what the “big boys” are dealing with can help us make the best choices.
A couple of comments:
“Lake has been a MAGA queen and lightening rod, running both for Senate and VP (she hopes) at the same time.”
It’s LIGHTNING rod. “Lightning” is that electrical activity in the sky which can cause fires and the rods were created to make sure the lightning hit them (since modern construction tends to shy away from flammable materials and uses more non-conductive material, the phrase “lightning rod” is more commonly used to mean anything or anyone that attracts usually dangerous or unwanted attention).
“Lightening” (with the “e”) generally refers to making something lighter in color, from the verb “to lighten” but it can also refer to relaxing or easing the mood.
Also–on a more serious point– who really thinks ALL of the GOP’s various “campaign committees” (whether for the Senate or House or even governors) won’t receive a “request” from the RNC to send some (i.e., at least 75%) of the funds they do raise to the RNC and its campaign to get Trump reelected? It’ll probably be a quid pro quo matter: “You give us the money you raise and we’ll get His Greatness to make a mention of your candidate in one of his speeches.”
sheehy, MT senate, is being made out to be a carpet-bagger. One of the ads in particular states he is closing off access for hunters. Oligarchs purchase rural land which often has roads/trails leading to public lands and they fence them off putting the access to lands they do not own off-limits. That NEVER sits well with Montanans. Some ads are stating his “hobby ranch” is really a get-away for the wealthy (at $10k a night (or weekend?)). The dumb-ass even put his occupation on his income tax form as “cowboy” f.f.s.
He purchased a f*ck-ton of land/properties guaranteed to raise local property taxes and that REALLY doesn’t sit well with Montanans and ads for Tester are making hay with it.
I’m not saying Jon will have an easy go of this–MT has more than its fair share of idiots/trump supporters–but the ‘pubes could have supported someone else because some of sheehy’s actions/purchases are poison pills to the residents here. I hope a PAC or Tester himself makes much of sheehy’s support of trump because another thing that pisses Montanans off is violations of their privacy (MT has an explicit right to privacy in its constitution) up to and including women’s reproductive healthcare-a constant barrage of ads informing voters just who was responsible for making it possible for the legislature’s attempt to ban abortion, trump’s s.c. picks, could seal the deal for Tester. For all that MT is a red state, the citizens are NOT forced birthers and have shown time and time again that pregnancy/abortion is a woman’s decision. Period.
Thanks Megan .. can’t read Politico anymore it’s on that other internet.