“Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle,” we are told by the New Republic. They go on to say, “Maybe they want to be accurate. Or maybe they want to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.” This is exactly what happened in 2020 and this was the essence of the “red tsunami” and Kevin McCarthy’s fictional “40-seat gain” which turned out to be a mere fraction of that. Plus, McCarthy didn’t know that his own head would be off in a few short months of his grandiose predictions. I take care to note this here because fealty to polling is madness in this day and age, and that is precisely because if you have a lot of biased polls, or polls with an unsound scientific structure, you defeat the very purpose of polling.
Let me make what may sound like a strange suggestion: answer your phone to unknown numbers right now. I say that because pollsters are calling. Yes, when you pick up you’ll get your fair share of people trying to sell you funeral insurance, Medicare HMOs and God only knows what, but I’ve had pollsters hit me three times in the last two months and I want to be polled. I’m hoping to be polled. Back to the article cited:
Last month, a GOP-friendly polling firm presented itself, and its data, in a highly unusual way. Rather than maintain a nominally neutral public-facing profile, this pollster acted more like a cavalry brigade for Donald Trump’s campaign. And the firm did so explicitly, openly, and proudly.
It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit for this development. When a MAGA influencer celebrated the pro-Trump shift on X (formerly Twitter), Quantus’s account responded: “You’re welcome.”
Take a moment out and look at this. You and I could become pollsters, and maybe we should. The essence of scientific polling is that you get a balanced demographic. For instance, if you poll 1,000 people, all likely voters and let’s say 500 of them have voted Republican and 500 Democratic, as a rule, that would be a great beginning. And let’s further suppose that these 500 in each camp are balanced in terms of age, education, all the metrics by which voting behaviors are traditionally assessed. That would be a pretty decent poll and believe me it would be a better sampling than probably 95% of the polls out there, if not more.
The smartphone and people not answering unknown numbers has hamstrung the business of polling. I’m wondering if pollsters shouldn’t simply identify themselves and if participating in polls shouldn’t be touted as an important civic duty, which I believe it is. If we could get heard, all of us, more easily, then we wouldn’t have “junk” polls, we would have a valid polling system, which we had prior to the last 15 years or so. Polling was not good in 2012 and it was disastrous in 2016 and here we are again. And here’s one reason why.
The implication was clear. A Quantus poll had not only pushed the averages back to Trump; this was nakedly the whole point of releasing the poll in the first place.
To proponents of what might be called the “Red Wave Theory” of polling, this was a blatant example of a phenomenon that they see as widespread: A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump’s favor. In the view of these critics, the Quantus example (the firm subsequently denied any such intent) only made all this more overt: Dozens of such polls have been released since then, and they are in no small part responsible for tipping the averages—and the forecasts—toward Trump.
Coming at a time when right-wing disinformation is soaring—and Trump’s most feverish ally, Elon Musk, is converting X into a bottomless sewer pit of MAGA-pilled electoral propaganda—these critics see all this as a hyper-emboldened version of what happened in 2022, when GOP polls flooded the polling averages and arguably helped make GOP Senate candidates appear stronger than they were, leading to much-vaunted predictions of a “red wave.” Most prominently, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg and data analyst Tom Bonier, who were skeptical of such predictions in 2022 and ultimately proved correct, are now warning that all this is happening again.
Again, if these shenanigans continue, at some point there is going to have to be a reckoning. I am assuming that 2024 is going to be the time of reckoning. Right now we have a neck and neck horserace — we are told — and yet what do you see in the real world with your own eyes? You see Donald Trump swaying to music for 49 musics, because he wants to end the rally and he wants people to leave. You see him talking about how Jill Biden should “slap around” her “fat husband” and “get him off the couch” and how Kamala Harris is a “shit vice president.”
You hear how Hitler had “great generals” and Trump envies him that advantage. This is completely un-American — but that’s what the GOP candidate is saying. And he’s got a running mate who has made it clear he’s only too happy to forego his constitutional duties and throw an election to the House to decide and into utter chaos.
Yet despite the unconscionable differences between these two candidates, we are told in no uncertain terms that this is a nailbiter race. This is insanity producing. We don’t have a dispute between a normal conservative and a normal liberal this cycle. That’s not what all the shouting’s about. The furor is because we have a dictator-worshipping vulgarian with Project 2025 in his back pocket, a fascist manifesto which is so bad that Trump himself denounces it and attempts to distance himself from it. We are voting on our very way of life this November.
Yet we are told, on a regular basis these days, that fully half of the electorate is just fine with doing away with democracy and giving fascism a whirl. Thirteen more days of this. Hang onto the arm of your chair, when you’re not busy actually casting your ballot or doing whatever you can to make sure other people cast theirs.
What would really help is for the folks reporting on the polls to stop reporting EVERY single poll that has no history of legitimacy. The only polls that should be covered should have ties to major LEGITIMATE news organizations and strive to be absolutely neutral in their polling. *IF* a poll is covered that has a discernible bias, that bias MUST be explained or, at the very least, mentioned or noted in the coverage. For “independent” pollsters, there should be a minimum of a decade of REPUTABLE polling and have their results fall within reasonable parameters when the final results are known. For example, if a polling firm has 10 polls covered during the period and those sets of polls results in a, say 60-37-3 average but the final actual result is 50-49-1, then the firm is dropped from the next cycle; another polling firm ends up with 10 polls that average 52-46-2, then they’re cleared to be used the next cycle. Additionally, if an agency does want to cover these “less credible” polls, then some kind of reasonable disclaimer (e.g., “These polls do not match our standards but are offered in the interest of providing as much information as possible”) should be provided BUT the polls should not be included in the aggregate totals.
I mean, what’s the difference if I just post a bunch of numbers and offer them to a news agency as a “legitimate poll” without actually polling anyone? I mean, I could say I polled 650 likely voters, 400 of whom identified as Republicans, 225 as Democrats and 25 as no party preference and 375 (57.6%) of the respondents said they planned to vote for Harris, 200 (30.8%) for Trump, and 75 undecided at this time. By party, 220 Democrats, 150 Republicans, and 5 no preference planned to vote for Harris (by percentage, 98% of Democrats, 37.5% of Republicans and 20% of no preference ) while 0 Democrats, 195 Republicans and 5 no preference planned to vote for Trump (0% of Democrats, 48.8% of Republicans and 20% of no preference); 5 Democrats, 55 Republicans and 15 no preference were currently undecided (2% of Democrats, 13.7% of Republicans and 60% of no preference). I mean, that’s a completely made-up “poll” with absolutely no work on my part beyond making up numbers and doing math (but it seems like my poll bears as much validity as some of the crap that keeps getting included in the news coverage).
In a perfect world, Joseph. If only it would be so…..
Well yes, but the problem is that the media benefits from it looking like a horse race too.
To the phrase “shit VP” Trump has added “have you seen this low energy, low information woman? Is she drunk? Is she on drugs? It’s terrible!” I imagine he is doing this because Harris shows actual video of Trump at her rallies. Trump hits back with super-bullshit because there isn’t video he can show of her acting that way!
And he’s jealous. She is everything he is not: she is intelligent, well-educated, successful/accomplished, has been POPULARLY ELECTED for numerous offices including for being part of the popularly and e.c. elected ticket of 2020, and one more thing–she is happy with what she is and has done in and with her life. trump is none of those things. He is NOT intelligent; he might have the parchment but he is NOT well-educated-he’s like the children just passed through 12 grades and still cannot read. He is certainly not accomplished or successful and has YET to be popularly elected to public office. Oh, and he is the most miserable person walking the planet and because he can’t stand it that others are NOT as miserable, he spreads his misery as much as possible: he is most certainly not happy.
trump is projecting again–he is a “shit” human being. Always has been, always will be. You know, it’s a real shame because it must have been possible for those parents of his to produce something worthwhile in him-they just did not for whatever reason. And we’re left with their garbage to clean up.
“Fat husband”? Considering Biden is lean and can ride a bike while Donnie Donuts has a gut the size of Rhode Island and can’t even walk down a ramp, this is the clearest example I have seen of Trump projection.
And all.his accomplishments– his business. his college degree were financed by Daddy Fred.
One more reason for the junk polls: after the election and Trump (hopefully) loses, the MAGAs will have something else to bolster their claims of “rigging”—-as in, “but the polls said otherwise!”
I actually think this is the end game on the recent release of these “polls” done by conservative groups. They’ve flooded the country with these polls so as to warp the statistics if favor of tRump so that when the VP overwhelming wins on 11/5/24 they will have “cause” to claim fraud. THAT is their plan!
We need to talk this up and debunk this as much as possible so that when they cry foul after 11/5, they really won’t have justification for their arguments.
Or… we just ignore all polls other than the one on Nov. 5th.
Just sayin’
So what if Hitler had ‘great generals’???
They were that great in following his orders that they lost the war