Nature abhors a vacuum and thus so does power itself. In a shifting dynamic in which the United States is now engrossed in talk about whether President-elect Donald Trump will declare a national emergency and use the American military to immediately begin mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, the Russian government just released a revised policy regarding its use of nuclear weapons. It won’t surprise anyone that Russia has now lowered the bar to justify possible use of nuclear weapons and that the bar centers on American alliances in Europe. Russia is doing all it can to isolate NATO interests and make supporting Ukraine come with the risk of nuclear war.
It is hardly surprising that Vladimir Putin would do all he can to encourage Americans and the incoming administration to abandon the NATO alliance that has kept Western Europe free of war since the end of World War II – along with providing the underpinnings of Mutual Assured Destruction, the sickening reality that has – at least – kept nuclear war at bay. But going forward? It sounds far too plausible by the day and this comes on the heels of news that the Biden administration considered it to be “50-50” that Russia would use nuclear missiles in Ukraine as late as October of 2022.
As reported by Axios, Putin wants the world to know that it supports Ukraine at its own risk, putting responsibility squarely on the United States and clearing the field for further incursions into Europe’s eastern border:
The new doctrine expands the range of countries and alliances — a clear reference to NATO — subject to nuclear deterrence. It also claims nuclear weapons would only be a last resort to protect Russia’s sovereignty, Russian state news agency TASS reported.
It states that Russia will consider an attack from any non-nuclear state with the backing of a nuclear country as a joint attack. It also states that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional weapons attack that threatens its sovereignty.
You can read it six times and it still says that Russia believes it has the right to use nuclear weapons if it is attacked by anyone supported by the United States. Obviously, such a position is meaningless within a strong NATO alliance. The world had been operating on the assumption that NATO was “all-in” with respect to the prevention of Russian aggression. But there is nothing in this new doctrine about responding to a nuclear attack, only an attack – of any kind, conventional or otherwise.
Moreover, it is pretty damned vague about who might be attacking and for what purpose. Ukraine just launched its first missiles into the Russian heartland. The missiles themselves were American made. Does that constitute an attack against which Russia might respond with nuclear weapons? It certainly sounds like it and that is almost surely the point.
We would otherwise not have to worry so much if the United States was unified such that we could at least agree that we oppose Russia invading Eastern Europe. It would also be nice to think we can agree that nuclear war must be avoided at all costs but that, too, requires a united “United” States. If we are fighting over how to even use our national military – perhaps even domestically? It doesn’t bode well.
Meanwhile, there is one certainty in all of this. Vladimir Putin will be doing everything he can to make it easier and easier to isolate the U.S., straining our relationship with NATO and other Western allies. Putin might even make it sound great to MAGA supporters here in the U.S. – “they’re taking so much money!” But anyone who believes that Putin serves any interests but his own will get a real rude awakening. Let’s just hope that it isn’t in the form of a mushroom cloud. Putin may be “Red” but he most certainly is not a team player and will dump all that is MAGA the moment he believes it’s in his best interests.
You would think that there would be at least a few things easy things around which to agree. When even the prospect of nuclear war rises over domestic politics – and the timing is no coincidence – it leaves room for doubt where there should be none. After all, the U.S. became a “great” empire when it united against Russia and the Soviet Union. Where did that go?
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak and on Blue Sky @jasonmiciak.bsky.social
“After all, the U.S. became a “great” empire when it united against Russia and the Soviet Union. Where did that go?”
Into the gutter with the advent of Trumpism.