Yes, I know. I know. News broke this morning that Justice Juan Merchan decided to postpone Donald Trump’s sentencing until November 26. This is being touted as a “major victory for Trump” by the New York Times and other outlets. In the short term, perhaps. Yes, it spares Trump embarrassment seven weeks before a presidential election. Granted. But has anybody stopped to think about the flip side of the coin?
Justice Merchan can sentence Trump to up to four years in prison, or, he can sentence him to probation, some kind of a slap on the wrist. My take on this is that Merchan intends to sentence Trump to do some time and he expressly did not want to do it seven weeks before an election because it was going to: 1. Give Trump’s political martyr stance fuel, or 2. Be touted as “election interference” or 3. Both. Come, let us reason together as LBJ used to say.
Justice Merchan, a veteran judge who once vowed to apply “the rules of law evenhandedly,” was an unlikely deliverer of relief for the former president. Yet his ruling on Friday marked just Mr. Trump’s latest success in dragging out his varied legal entanglements, a strategy that has paid off in all four criminal cases looming over the former president.
Maybe it is a success or maybe it’s a harbinger of doom. Put it this way, if Merchan had sentenced him to only probation on September 18, that would be construed as the court deciding that Trump really wasn’t guilty of all that much and the entire trial had been more theatrics than law. BUT if Merchan intends to sentence him, even for a nominal thirty days or even less, that carries some weight.
Remember, Justice Merchan has the discretion to take into consideration Trump’s boorish behavior during the trial. Trump openly disrespected not only Merchan, personally, but the court. Trump also disrespected Merchan’s daughter and started a conspiracy theory about her being an agent of the Democratic party and making substantial income off of Trump going to trial. If Merchan does indeed intend to treat Trump like other criminals, then he reasonably would sentence him to do some time.
In a letter filed with the court, Mr. Trump’s lawyers implied that holding his sentencing just weeks before Election Day on Nov. 5 could improperly influence voters.
“By adjourning the sentencing until after that election — which is of paramount importance to the entire nation,” Mr. Trump’s lawyers said, “the court would reduce, even if not eliminate, issues regarding the integrity of any future proceedings.”
Now here’s the beauty of this: Merchan has bent over backwards to be fair to Trump and he did so during the trial. He gave Trump enough rope to hang himself. So yes, this appears to be a win right now, today, but there’s a lot to be said for letting Trump continue unimpeded towards Election Day and not giving the appearance of any judicial sabotage. I personally agree with the judge’s rationale. I’m not happy with it because I would have loved to see Trump suffer yet one more public disgrace, but if I pull back and put myself in the judge’s shoes, this is the way this matter should be handled. Moreover, this is a brillant maneuver when you get right down to it. Read this and I’ll tell you why I think it’s brilliant.
In a ruling on Friday, the judge, Juan M. Merchan, cited the “unique time frame this matter currently finds itself in” and rescheduled the sentencing for Nov. 26. He had previously planned to hand down Mr. Trump’s punishment on Sept. 18, just seven weeks before Election Day, when Mr. Trump will face off against Vice President Kamala Harris for the presidency.
“This is not a decision this court makes lightly but it is the decision which in this court’s view, best advances the interests of justice,” Justice Merchan wrote in the four-page ruling, which noted that “this matter is one that stands alone, in a unique place in this nation’s history.”
The judge appeared eager to skirt a swirl of partisan second-guessing in the campaign’s final stretch. A delay, he wrote, “should dispel any suggestion that the court will have issued any decision or imposed sentence either to give an advantage to, or create a disadvantage for, any political party.”
Now I’ll tell you why I think this is brilliant. Justice Merchan just defused an occasion for a major fundraising effort on Trump’s part. Think about it. Every time in the past that Trump has suffered a legal setback he has run to MAGA with both palms outstretched, begging for cash. Now he can’t.
Merchan did not roll over here. At first blush it may appear that way but no. Not when you consider that he has deprived Trump of an excuse to raise a lot of money right before the election. Kamala Harris has a war chest now of over $400 million and Trump has one which is less than $200 million. Trump could have used the sentencing as a windfall but now he can’t.
Now the hush money sentencing recedes into the shadows until Thanksgiving. Then Trump gets sentenced and he very probably will end up getting sentenced to do time. Just think about it. If Merchan simply intended a slap on the wrist, he could have done that on September 18 and then Trump walks scot free. And that might have actually helped him campaign the last seven weeks. The fact that Merchan did not do that clearly implies that he intends to do something a lot more than probation.
And if Trump’s lawyers have thought about this for a minute, they can reach these same conclusions. This is not rocket science. There are only so many alternatives here and I think we’ve discussed them.
- Trump gets probation only, as a first-time offender;
- Trump gets some prison time;
- Trump gets substantial prison time;
- Trump gets probation and community service.
I personally can’t think of many more angles. Any legal people here who want to chime in, please do so.
Let Trump world celebrate its “victory.” It doesn’t have one. It just has a strong intimation from the judge that doomsday is waiting on November 26. The first of many doomsdays as a matter of fact. Let the games begin. Trump won’t be the GOP nominee in 59 days. He will either be defeated or he will be the president-elect. If he’s defeated, then he’s got a lot of legal hot water to begin wading through, immediately.
Plus, there would be another Constititutional issue. I don’t know if a president-elect can get sentencing in a case already decided waived. Or, maybe it won’t matter. If Trump becomes president-elect, the Constitution will be shredded for cat litter.
Don’t forget the Contempt of Court stuff. The financial penalty is limited by law in NY to a laughable amount for someone like Trump. BUT time, if only one day per violation can’t be paid with money. It gets paid with one’s ass in a cell! Unless I’m mistaken there were incidents past the few times where a fine was handed down that Judge Merchan put on the back burner. Someone versed in NY law would have to say whether for the contempt citations where a fine was paid a stint in lockup can be added. But I’m pretty sure at least one or two violations are on the record that the judge didn’t rule on at the time.
Also, as you say the contempt has continued and Trump is now officially a convicted felon and that changes how he can be treated by the system. Even if Trump were to get sentenced to time in lockup for the actual charges as a “first time offender” he’d likely be able to post bail and remain free during appeal. Unless he got hit with a stiff bail amount and no one wants to put up the bond for someone who’s just gotten his ass kicked in another election and who’d financial house is collapsing! Even so, on the CONTEMPT the judge can literally have the bailiff take him into custody right there in the courtroom when proceedings end to do a little time in lockup. Even a few days will be quite the shock to Trumpty! And to MAGA.
Denis…I can vouche for that…long story but short version was my ex cheated in a no fault state, and had an attorney who shared an ‘alternative lifestyle’ with the judge who had no children. Although I spent an ungodly amount of time and money getting my daughters who were 3 and 6 at the time of our separation, and having gone through infertility/donor and adoption, my ex ended our 12 year marriage looking for a rich man. My divorce gave me joint custody, yet everytime my ex violated court orders, and I took her back, I was punished and she was not. The judge jacked my child support 4x to what we had agreed to in the divorce agreement, and that was after I signed over our 3,000 square foot house with a hundred grand of equity to stop her from moving out of state. When I lost my job in the 2009 economy meltdown, I was held in contempt twice, each time being led out IMMEDIATELY in leg irons and handcuffs. Once i was put into a van with an uncuffed convicted murderer. When he saw how i was chained up, he whispered to me, what did you DO? When i told him it was for child support, he didnt believe me. It was kinda funny. The actual events are even worse but that’s the short version. Trump is the poster child for there being two distinct systems of justice. Anyone who believes different is naive and a fool. Mostly a privileged fool.
WTF?! Handcuffs??? In-freaking-sane!!!!! Alice’s Restaurant all over again!
I agree Ursula…add in it doesn’t relieve Trump from worrying and knowing the sword of sentencing hangs over his head. He may be a buffoon but he knows if he loses this election this will be the first shoe to drop, and the judge will be free to deliver a sentence to someone who not only isn’t president elect, but he’s just another citizen. Add in it gives Trump more time to prove he is a career criminal. As the pressure mounts, I expect him to act more erratic. When he loses, I expect he’ll want another rebellion. Look what he just did ALL OVER AGAIN…call Jean Carroll a liar. Maybe he should pull a Reagan…uh…I don’t remember committing the crime although people tell me I was at the meeting.
Just now on Nicole Wallace’s “Deadline White House,” Rev. Al Sharpton gave the best reason for applauding Merchan moving the sentencing to Nov. 26….because “this country is used to roasting its turkeys on Thanksgiving!” 🤣🦃 Preach, Rev!! 🙏
If only this case had started 6-12 months earlier. We might have had a more final result.
Everything legal about Trump is unprecedented, due entirely to his unprecedented criminality.
the supreme Court cover team for trump delayed this too far into election season. they delayed and delayed. merchan was backed into a corner, he didn’t have much chance to get this done.
Just ONCE I would like the legal system in this country to say “f*ck your election-if you didn’t want to do the time then you shouldn’t have done the crime”. HE IS NOT THE F*CKING PRESIDENT. Even if he were, crimes committed before or after him squatting in the oval are CRIMES he committed and therefore punishable. I am sick and f*cking tired of living in a bull-shit country that has two systems of justice. If you’re joe blow the ragman, you’re f*cked. If you’re some orange moron who managed to f*ck up the country almost beyond repair in four short years, apparently you’re golden. This is bull-shit. It needs to end and any pol not wanting to MAKE it end needs to be the first ones up against the wall-revolution or not.
A couple of points to consider:
1–Merchan already delayed sentencing once before. He was originally supposed to have been sentenced on July 11 but that got delayed on July 2 because of the criminal SCOTUS decision over Trump’s alleged presidential immunity (a total crock to be honest as this case had *nothing* to do with actions Trump took in his role as President; the case involved actions Trump and his cronies took BEFORE the Nov 2016 election). THAT sentencing is the one that got moved to September 18.
2–In mid-August, Trump’s team tried to get the sentence delayed and then a couple weeks later, they tried to get a federal court to delay sentencing–claiming “election interference”–and were turned down so they filed with the Second Circuit. Now, we have Merchan delaying the sentencing again.
Merchan erred with this delay, plain and simple.
Oh, another point: A “president-elect” has NO POWER. None. There is NO Constitutional provision even discussing a “president-elect.” Until the person who wins the election (and the electoral college proceedings) actually gets sworn into office on January 20th, he or she has nothing more than they did when they were just running for the office.
All a president-elect does is begin assembling his post-election team, vetting candidates for the various Cabinet posts and meeting with the current President and Cabinet members to be brought up to speed on what’s going on the diplomatic front and current military issues, etc. But until January 20, the president-elect is just a regular American citizen with as much authority as a hog farmer in Iowa or a studio head in LA or an Applebees waiter in Ohio.
Trump wins battles not the war because When We Fight We Win!!!