Because the pandemic is going to uniquely force a much higher absentee voting rate than normal, and because Trump is so incompetently obvious in his clumsy thuggery of the post office, this is quite properly a national scandal. But the underlying argument is not new, and actually doesn’t support Trump’s logic on this issue.
This happens every damn voting cycle, Presidential and off year. Election year gets here, and the topic of early voting and absentee voting comes to the top. The Republicans, figuring that if the Democrats are in favor of it, it must hurt the GOP, get on their hind legs to oppose any advances. The democrats push anyway, and in states where the control the legislature and Governor’s mansion, some progress may be made.
Just a quick tutorial, for clarity as we go along below. There are two topics of voting that come up every cycle. Early voting simply means a person showing up at a polling place on a day before election day to cast their ballot. It is still an in person ballot. Absentee balloting, which includes both mail in ballots as well as requested absentee ballots to come by and be returned by mail. The difference is critical, because the statistics are pretty much mutually exclusive.
In early in person voting, statistically that tends to skew more heavily in favor of the democrats. But logically, if the majority of Democrats voted early in person, the in person election day balloting tends to skew heavily in favor of the GOP. My personal opinion is that since GOP voters tend to be older, they tend to vote on election day because that was the only option that was available to them in their formative voting years. But as in most things, turnout intensity settles the issue.
But when it comes to absentee and mail in balloting, suddenly you have hordes of “experts” crawling out of the woodwork, and onto the sets on network news shows, lugging briefcases full of study data of all kinds. And the consensus seems to be nearly universal. While mitigating factors may skew an mail in balloting generally does not tend to favor either side! Yeah, you got it, it tends to be a wash, neither side gains a perceptible advantage.individual race or election, over the long haul,
I think I know what’s causing Trump to lose his shit over this topic, it’s an utterly ridiculous poll that was released recently. The poll showed that people who planned to vote by mail were breaking for Biden by some ridiculous margin like 81-14. But people who planned to vote in person were breaking for Trump by some equally ludicrous margin like 62-24. The first of my myriad of problems with the poll is who the fuck were their survey pool? Anybody who is registered to vote, only likely voters, or only people who have voted by mail in the past? Also, there is nothing comparative to put this poll up against. And also, the disparity in the results are off the charts compared to any other reputable poll between the two candidates. But it looks like exactly the kind of conspiracy theory bullshit that would put Trump’s panties in a bunch.
But when you dock back in to Starship Reality, it doesn’t take much research to realize that Trump is taking a world class crap shoot with this strategy. For one thing, although polls are showing slippage, older voters are still a core GOP constituency. And by trashing mail in balloting in the middle of a pandemic, Trump may well be taking votes off of the table that both he, as well as vulnerable GOP Senate incumbents desperately need. This could be especially devastating in traditionally GOP leaning states with heavy elderly populations like Arizona, Iowa, and Florida.
Next up, like a 15 year old trying out for a porn flick, Trump just can’t seem to resist finishing the reel too early. Trump is making the disruptions with postal service too obvious too early. Leaving possible congressional interference out of it, postmasters are already sending warning letters to Secretaries of State in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania letters warning that with current circumstances, they will not be able to guarantee late posted ballots with on time delivery on election day. But it’s too damn early for that. He’s leaving state SoS’s time to update their rules, by maybe capping the mail in ballot requests to 10 days out, or even better, by extending the counting period to 5 days after election day for ballots that were properly postmarked. And before you scoff, kindly remember that this year several GOP SoS’s have openly defied GOP controlled legislatures to make access to m on how they ran the states elections, and they have aspirations too.ail in ballots easier. Their ticket to the Governors office or a Senate seat will be judged.
But the biggest risk is the one due to my favorite word, intensity. Back in the early spring the Wisconsin GOP dominated legislature sued The Democratic Governor to force a largely in person ballot for a state Supreme Court seat, as a method of voter suppression middle of the pandemic at its worst. Instead, people lined up for hours in the cold, wearing masks and largely socially distanced, and sent the GOP candidate down in flames. In Georgia, the GOP Secretary of State traded increased early voting days for a gutting of election day polling places, along with a bunch of brand new, untested voting machines and inadequate tech support. Democrats in minority neighborhoods waited in the rain 5-6 hours to cast their ballots.
This is intensity. You don’t make more than a million bucks an hour in the 24 hours following the announcement of a Vice Presidential candidate under normal circumstances. The polling, both nationally as well as key battleground states, show that the majority of people want Trump gone. It doesn’t matter what Trump does, they are going to get their ballots in. Polls to the souls will run extra buses half empty for social distancing if needed. Trump’s early warning means that people will request their mail in ballots early, fill them out the same day, and get them in the mail, or drop them off at an early polling location. The momentum is palpable in the electorate.
There are miles to go yet for this saga. Personally, I bet the majority of the country wants Trump gone, and if they’re willing to do whatever it takes to get their ballots in and counted, there isn’t a damn thing he can do about it. I believe that Trump’s heavy handed abuse of the postal service, and the transparent machinations of his uber rich lackeys are going to lead to consequences, not only from congress, but also from the outcry of thousands, if not millions of veterans who rely on timely mail delivery for their checks and medications. Seniors are also going to rebel. Now that Trump’s personal ass is hanging in the wind on this issue, watch for his poll numbers to fall even more, especially with veterans and the seniors. This is a fight I don’t think he really wanted to pick.
To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen
Follow me on Twitter at @RealMurfster35
I’m sure most Australian and NZ readers must shake their heads in disbelief at how elections are conducted in the US. For a starter, electoral districting is done by an independent group of demographers and analysts. No gerrymandering. As the electoral boundaries get redrawn, sometimes the conservatives do well, sometimes the progressives. Excepting the Queensland conservative government in the ’70’s and 80’s, no government interferes. It works. Second, in both countries voter registration is compulsory, and in Australia, voting is compulsory. Any voter though is free to go in and make an ‘informal’ vote, leaving the ballot papers blank. We get anomalies, such as some senate seats going to weirdo small parties, but in aggregate, it works. With independent electoral commissions, no political control, anyone wanting a postal, absentee (out of district) or early vote gets one. And, in 40+ years of voting in both countries, I have never waited more than 10 minutes to vote. None of the queues around the block we see when the US votes.
He is so set on his intended consequences, he can’t comprehend the unexpected ones.
Great article Murfster.
Yeah, it’s too damn soon, Murf. And he’s disrupting mail delivery people need for other things (which is an utter failure in psy ops; you want people to trust you through the things you’re in charge of). AND HE JUST ADMITTED OUT LOUD (like he always does when he gets his brag on). I’m waiting on people to figure out how this is the same old outrage cycle playing out yet again. That real pain is involved or that pushback is still needed does nothing to change the latter fact.
A couple of things. It’s a historical fact that when it comes to early voting, black voters prefer to vote in person, while white voters prefer vote by mail. I have never seen an explanation but we know it’s true. Obviously with the pandemic, mail-in voting will increase across all sectors so that may change. But this is why Republicans in Ohio have tried to limit early voting locations and hours and ban early voting in person on Sundays (‘souls to the polls” is a black church thing).
Second — and I’ve been saying this to all the people on the left hurting us by screaming “don’t mail your ballot — vote in person!” — we don’t know what things will look like as we get closer to Election Day. In fact, if the desperate shortage of poll workers continues, polling places may be radically consolidated, making it difficult for older voters and exurban white voters to get there, which could hurt Republicans on Election Day — it’s hard to tell. Here in Ohio they are virtually begging people to be poll workers. I got an email this morning because I’ve worked in the past and if you go to the Secretary of State’s website to complain about his limiting ballot drop-off locations and refusing to require masks at polls— a move which is going to damage his ability to recruit poll workers — the first thing you see is a pop-up begging for poll workers.
I feel very strongly that people SHOULD vote by mail and do so as soon as possible. Here in Ohio they give ten days after the election for ballots to arrive if they are postmarked the day before the election, and my sister says it’s the same in Illinois.
What does $48 million in 48 hours tell you about intensity? That’s all I need to know.
He’s requested an absentee ballot from Florida. Which would be sent *by mail* to Mar-al-Ego, and then would have to be returned *by mail*…assuming he gets the ballot early enough.
Somthing is wrong with this sentence: “several GOP SoS’s have openly defied GOP controlled legislatures to make access to m on how they ran the states elections, and they have aspirations too.ail in ballots easier.”
Try this:
several GOP SoS’s have openly defied GOP controlled legislatures to make access to mail in ballots easier, and they have aspirations too on how they ran the states elections.
Murf has severe glaucoma, makes proofing difficult. I only found that out recently myself.
But he probably also has a laptop computer with a touchpad, and those things are diabolical. The touchpad will move the cursor *while you are typing* so that half the sentence is in one place, half in another totally unrelated spot. Then it will move it again and suddenly delete an entire paragraph. You have to watch it like a hawk. And again, with glaucoma, that’s easier – MUCH easier – to miss.
Don’t get me started on what smartphones and iPads do to people trying to type comments! None of it is good.
Hope this helps.
Oh dear, I wrote a reply but somehow all the carriage returns to separate paragraphs got removed when I posted it. I am sorry, there really were paragraphs there.
Well, I seen yesterday that he’s ready to negotiate on this. I guess some of the saner ones in his staff has told him this is a bad idea. A lot of people depend on a lot of things to get to them by mail. Now of course it’s not over for the ballots. They are just going to have to figure out a better excuse.
Who’s he going to negotiate with? The problem is the Rs in the Senate, and they’re not negotiating with anyone.
Setting aside (briefly) the obvious & odious moral failure of crippling an essential government institution, consider the practical everyday failure: all those folks who have ordered things online to be delivered by the USPS will now wait many days, maybe weeks, for them to arrive. It may be nothing more than an annoyance, but it will remind those folks that it’s Trump who’s screwing up the system for his own political ends: not Obama, not the dastardly Dems, not even nasty Kamala. It will remind them that he cares not at all for them, only for
himself … & that he’s stupid enough to make it clear.