George Patton said, “The hardest thing a general has to do is to wait for the battle to start after all of the orders have been given.” We can modify that to “wait for the votes to be counted after the best possible campaign has been run.” Nobody can fault the Harris/Walz campaign. It came together brilliantly, just over three months ago. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has been running for two years and he’s run himself into the wall more often than not.
He’ll be at his last rally (hopefully ever) in Grand Rapids, Michigan within the hour. If he arrives late, as usual, he may find himself talking to an empty venue, since his speech isn’t scheduled until 10:30 p.m. Why that late, I know not. It’s one of many mysteries.
Let us look at where Kamala Harris stands and what her avenues to victory are. Mail-in ballots will still be counted if they are postmarked by tomorrow. Live voting begins tomorrow. Here’s how Harris can win.
You see that about half these options do not involve Arizona, because at this point that is slated to go for Trump by three to five points — although so was Nevada, until just a few days ago. I kid you not when I say that just last Wednesday Nevada was being written off, along with Arizona, the reason being that Trump had managed to sell his no tax on tips blather. Nevada altered course (or at least the predictions altered course) and maybe Arizona just doesn’t have the granular level of political reporting that we have in this state. Pennsylvania is key to all these scenarios, although not necessarily crucial. But one aspect to Pennsylvania which is indispensable is that it would finish the night quickly and decisively.
That is one reason that both Harris and Trump have been battling so hard to get the Keystone State. My fantasy is that Harris takes Pennsylvania conclusively and early and does the same with North Carolina. In that scenario, it will be game over and early.
Caveat: Pennsylvania counts the mail-in and early voting after the live voting, so we’re going to have to depend upon exit polls and actual counting. Beware of the red mirage, is my message.
And it goes without saying that Trump will use any red mirage he can lay his stubby fingered hands on as an excuse to declare an early victory. The pundit class is fairly certian that Trump will declare victory tomorrow night, it’s just a question of when and under what circumstances. And they may be right. After all, we did see that in 2020. But the fact of the matter is that if east coast voting leads to a number of plausible options for Harris, then Trump playing the boy who cried wolf will be given precisely that level of credence. Nobody is going to believe him.
Take a look at the options above. If you have an idea or an instinct which is the winning route, please share. Right now, tonight, nobody knows. It’s the calm before the storm, it’s the quiet night before the battle begins at dawn. We’ll end with another quote of General Patton’s: “Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base.”
The Harris/Walz campaign and the Democratic party has fought a fine battle. I am proud of us. I hope and pray that we can take it over the top and defeat not only Trump and MAGA but land a decisive blow against propaganda and stupidity. That’s a tall order but I think we can do it.
The trending hashtag for a few days now is HarrisWalz2024InALandslide. Let’s hope that’s prophecy.
Excellent summary!
I’m going to sleep with this thought-
all 7 swing states to Harris
319-219…..
thank you & very well done!
I am concerned with the 12th amendment contingency vote that the house could take up.
Thank you for all this.
A few questions:
1. Why are you so sure all of the swing states are going to VP Harris? Polls lie/exaggerate/are skewed.
2. We do not know the level of cheating and f@ckery that the GQP will pull. They have been practicing and honing their methods for years and now have the so called Supreme Court in their pocket as well as secretaries of states, governors, as well as maga mike and all the rest, etc. not a question, but….
3. Who knows how many ballots will be thrown out (all of them for VP Harris!) to ensure the crybaby wannabe dicktator wins.
4. If, no, when, orange menace starts declaring victory Very early, will DOJ put out a statement that it is illegal or just let him get away with more of his bs.
Cannot sleep from pain, etc., and these thoughts are swirling around in my tiny little brain early this morning.
I thank you for reading this.
> since his speech isn’t scheduled until 10:30 p.m. Why that late, I know not. It’s one of many mysteries.
I think you missed the plot here. There is a specific reason it is that late. Trump will ON STAGE pull the false “WE WON” statement out sometime before midnight. Obviously it DOES NOT MATTER if he is leading or not, he will say it. The media will eat it up and post numerous articles about it in the morning causing confusion and chaos. His cult followers will believe he won, and from there the mess ensues of how do we resolve a contested election – even if it’s not even close! I am hope I am wrong BTW.
After all, we did see that in 2020. But the fact of the matter is that if east coast voting leads to a number of plausible options for Harris, then Trump playing the boy who cried wolf will be given precisely that level of credence. Nobody is going to believe him.
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Just another broken record. Or, for those who don’t “do” vinyl: shuffle off, rpt on.
Sure but remember his cult members who are, to put it mildly, not the sharpest tools in the shed.