There have been all kinds of surprises so far in the Democratic primaries for President. One of them is that in the age of youthful activism, two old white dudes still top the field. Another surprise, at least to me, is the difficulty that well qualified candidates like Klobuchar, Harris, and Booker have had in gaining any traction. A big surprise is the splid rise of Senator Elizabeth Warren to the #3 spot in the polls, and they way she’s eating into Bernie Sanders support to do it.
But perhaps the biggest surprise, at least among the media, in the 2020 primary season, it’s the truly pathetic performance of former congressman Beto O’Rourke of Texas. Coming out of 2018, Beto, along with Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, were the rising star faced of the new, young, energetic, activist wing of the Democratic party. And yet, so far, in the ocean of the 2020 Democratic primaries, O’Rourke is splashing around like he has the anchor from the Titanic around his neck.Some in the media have tried to blame South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg for Beto’s difficulty in gaining popularity. In Buttigieg, you have another young, charismatic, energetic candidate with a compelling personal story, including Buttigierg being a gay, married, veteran. If I’m Mayor Pete, I’m lapping this narrative up like a kitten with cream, since it means that my message is resonating.
While I’m sure that Buttigieg is sucking some of the oxygen out of O’Rourke’s lane, I don’t think that Mayor Pete is the major reason for Beto’s ills. From where I’m sitting, Beto made a couple of critical errors right off of the bat that damaged him badly, and also suffers from one stigma that he can’t do anything about.
For one thing, O’Rourke badly misjudged his popularity, and the reasons for it. Coming out of the 2018 midterms, Beto O’Rourke was a rock star, no doubt about it. He enjoyed extremely high name recognition on the national stage, and he raised insane, presidential election style funding for a statewide Senate race, including a massive amount from out of state voters. But lets look at how and why he accomplished those two things.
Why in the hell was Beto so damn popular nationally in the first place? For one reason, and one reason only. because he was running against Senator Ted Cruz, easily the most hated and reviled member of the “Club of 100” in the country, in a state that had long ago become a pipe dream for Democrats in a national election. When Texas polls started showing O’Rourke with at least a theoretical shot in the race, and when both Cruz and the RNC started having hourly panic attacks, Beto started attracting national attention in the media. But it was superficial media attention at best. His name, a :05 clip of him speaking at a rally, and the latest poll numbers. The only thing that people outside of Texas actually knew about o’Rourke was that he was running against Ted Cruz, and giving him conniptions.
The same thing is true of his national donor base. The only thing that people knew about O’Rourke was that he was running against Calgary Teddy, a man who, with that beard, looks like somebody who stands around outside a school in a raincoat. Not only would beating Cruz be as satisfying emotionally as a warm, gentle spring shower, it would also be a cold, hard slap in Trump’s face, a national repudiation of his presidency. But wanting to have Ted Cruz spending all of his time pestering Heidi and the kids is a far way off from wanting Beto O’Rourke sitting in the Oval Office.
Which led to O’Rourke’s second terrible tactical decision, his campaign roll out. Following the 2018 election, Beto hit the talk show circuit. But not to talk up his candidacy for President, but instead to tease his potential candidacy. Beto made the mistake of reading too many of his own press clippings. To my mind, a good general rule of thumb is, If you’re the warm up act for the Rolling Stones, don’t make the mistake of thinking that the crowd came to see YOU! If Buttigieg ate into Beto’s following in the young, charismatic, compelling story lane, it’s because Mayor Pete was out there in the hustings, introducing himself and his agenda to the voters, while o’Rourke was sitting there with a foam ball on a string over our noses, like somebody teasing a cat. Beto’s self enforced inactivity also meant that he let other, earlier announcing candidates like Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar snaffle up most of the high quality staff, both for their national campaigns, as well as staffing field operations in the early states. For a guy famous for having “pop up”offices in every precinct in the state, this was almost criminal mismanagement.
Now for the blot that is outside of Beto’s control. When you look at national polling for the Democrats, what is the one overriding characteristic that a 2020 Democratic candidate for president must have? Electability! Democratic voters are willing to forgive almost any other sin or position, just as long as the candidate can speed His Lowness on his way to his impending state criminal charges in New York. And what is Beto O’Rourke’s sole claim to political fame? Oh yeah. He’s the guy who lost to Ted Cruz, but only by three points. This may or may not be one of the reasons that Stacey Abrams is still sitting on the sidelines. If the public perception is If you can’t knock off the court jester, how can you topple the king?, that can be a daunting mountain to climb, especially with no other election for you to win in the interim.
Can beto O’Rourke overcome these early missteps and turn his campaign around? I don’t see why not, as they keep saying, “It’s early yet.” But it’s not that early anymore, is it? Beto is going to need a major “breakthrough” moment, and the first Democratic debate is only 15 days away. If O’Rourke doesn’t have his breakthrough moment on that debate stage at the latest, well then. As the Governor said in Pirates of the Caribbean, “It could be a short drop to a sudden stop.” Don’t touch that dial.
I’m a huge poll nerd. When it gets close to election time, I can do some razor-sharp calculations of the data is good enough. All hail the polls!
But right now? These polls are telling me…kinda nothing. There are just too many variables. Like:
– There are a ton of undecideds. Where would they migrate?
– is the support of the high-name recognition candidates solid, or would it erode if we were coming up on a vote and people were thinking about this seriously?
– These polls have massive margins of error, and a five point swing is monumental in a 23 person race.
– In my lifetime, the first four states always narrow the race in unpredictable ways. Are NV and SC going to vote anywhere close to the national polls, and if they don’t, how will that affect voter migration on Super Tuesday?
And like forty other questions. The point being that there are just too many candidates and the science of polling can’t build a very good model for what’s coming. At best, these polls may (*may*) define first and second over candidates. They might also inform the ten or so who will be pressed to step aside barring an Iowa miracle.
But Beto is polling at 4%. If the first election were held today, I’d be unsurprised if he nabbed a 10% second place win, and I’d be unsurprised if he failed to get 1%. I’d be unsurprised if Biden and Bernie both failed to get in the top three. I’d barely be surprised if Amy Klobuchar won. Right now it’s just everyone scrunched up in a tight pack with ten point margins of error.
It’ll be time to pay attention to the polls when a day at the beach doesn’t sound compelling anymore. Which is a horrible metaphor…I live in Los Angeles. But for like upstate New Yorkers that works, lol.
Agreed…But these polls ARE important for the reason that they are a snapshot that can tell each campaign how well their messge is resonating…For candidates mired in low to md single digits, they are even more important since they can goose staff to find a way to make their message resonate louder, before the candidate is branded as an “also ran” in the minds of voters…
Beto has never been an exciting choice for me. He lost it with being the son-in-law of a billionaire. I still haven’t gotten a good answer from anyone who was excited about him when I ask, “So, what has he done?”
I am not surprised about Elizabeth Warren, I bought her shirt months ago.
I was all for Beto cleaning Calgary Teddy’s clock, but had no particular opinion of him otherwise…But the longer he went on without formally announcing, allowing all of the factors I listed above overtake him, I wondered if he was in fact even going to run, or if he was reconsidering taking a shot at John Cornyn…Now he’s in the river Styx, and he had better find a way to get his Mae West blown up quicklike…
I think Beto has made multiple mistakes and misjudgments. As you point out he was way off in his estimate of the depth of his national support. Sure, people around the country were willing to donate to a promising and charismatic guy giving Ted freaking Cruz a real re-election battle. And Beto seemed from outside the state at least to have a real shot at himself and Democrats in general not just dominating the Hispanic vote there but bringing in significant numbers of new voters – hopes that turned out to be overblown. However he made another big mistake in his campaign which might have been (or might not have) the right thing to do in Texas itself which was to “prove bipartisanship” by supporting his pal Will Hurd’s re-election bid – a race Hurd barely won and likely would have lost if Beto had endorsed his challenger. THAT didn’t sit well with voters outside TX, which during his post election period of reflection should have become obvious to him.
Many outside Texas were hoping he’d take some time off and then use all that unspent money (close to ten million as I recall) in his war chest to reinforce the statewide operation he’d built up for his campaign – both to help himself in a race against Cornyn in 2020 but also for overall GOTV in that state which has tantalized but disappointed in the hopes of it becoming at least a swing state the GOP would have to work hard to defend. Cornyn isn’t hated like Cruz (no one is – even the GOP can’t stand Cruz!) but Beto was in a good position to take him on and with a good candidate at the top of our ticket in 2020 not just take out Cornyn (and in the process give us a better shot at flipping the Senate) but if not win Texas’ electoral votes make the GOP spend a ton of resources to defend it they could have used elsewhere. And even if TX didn’t flip Beto would I think have been able to knock off Cornyn. Being a young guy he’d get his crack at a Presidential run before he got old.
Alas, as you say he let his press coverage go to his head and developed delusions of grandeur. He’s nothing more than a face in the crowd and quite a few in that crowd have better credentials than he does – and some also have plenty of campaign trail charisma of their own. Oops. I truly believe folks from outside TX feel the same way I do – that Beto should have taken some well deserved time off and then set about spending the time between now and Nov. 2020 taking out Cornyn instead of running for President. Given his lack of traction in polls I’d say my opinion is well justified and I’ve seen plenty of comments from others to that effect in other places.
I think the time is coming and not too far off when Beto will realize he just fucked it to death. That he blew it by going for the Presidency and badly misread just about every indicator of his chances. I think, to borrow a line from Stephen Coontz’ book The Intruders he will view his fall by realizing “It’s not the fall that kills you or the sudden stop at the end. It’s the realization that you are indeed this fucking stupid.” (I can explain the context of Lt. Grafton’s advice to his squadron mate if you like)
If Beto is the nominee, I’ll vote for him with alacrity, but he is not my choice at this point. Experience matters. Even Obama, talented as he is, would have been a more effective president had he a few more years in government. Chasing the pipe dream of “bipartisanship” and trying to cut deals with people whose only motivation was to destroy him and his presidency, plus the decision to mainstream the behavior of the prior administration (torture anyone?, lying us into unnecessary war?) in large measure brought us to where we are today. I hate to say this since I love Obama, but in my view this is accurate and must be said.
Please take a look at Jay Inslee, a very popular and successful Washington state governor. He has the executive-branch administrative experience, and excellent policies that were brought to fruition in his administration. Yes, he probably lacks the fire-and-brimstone of Beto, but talk is cheap, particularly if you haven’t a clue how to do the walk. Inslee has an attractive combination of executive experience, true progressive policies, appropriate prioritization of global warming, and youth,
I absolutely will vote for all the Democrat candidates. I’m in the “vote blue, no matter who” camp. Always was, always will. I like experience and a record of the experience. I really think that many of the candidates are running for recognition to pursue another office. I hope they do stay in politics, we need them.
Beto’s place on the stage is no surprise to me. Nor is Warren’s rise, pulling off Sanders folks (one of these two worked to elect HRC; the other did not; one is a Dem, the other is not). I confess I’d love to see her make GOP heads spin.
Beto, Stacey, Andrew (FL), were FABULOUS in their home states. But that was their first natl spotlight and none of them are seasoned enough yet, experienced enough yet, in that spotlight or for governing at that level. Beto let his own press go to his head. Never believe your own PR!
I put Harris and Booker in only a slightly different category re relevant experience. Like Obama, Harris is two years in to DC. Like HRC, Booker has Wall St ties. And they are POC, which is not going to appeal to non-Dems or even some centrists this year! Not after Obama’s Eight where McConnell’s GOP was more interested in destruction than governance. People are tired.
Relevant background and experience MATTER! Charisma comes in 2nd! (Mayor Pete probably has most charisma, interestingly, since he looks like he’s 12 yrs old; not sure he has enough governance though great resume; and I’m pretty sure I know males who will vote for him over A Woman, sadly.) I think Klobachar lacks charisma and isn’t loud enough for Dem primary voters. (I do think more voters should pay attention in the primaries or it will be the Far Left vs the Far Right and that’s NOT good for the country.) I do like her. And him.
This year, I think it’s more likely that White Male Relevant Experience will be what more voters are looking for than anything else. Maybe rinsing off the stench of this swamp or shying away from a woman or POC given what happened to HRC and Obama. I think that explains Uncle Joe, who I still think would be a very good president of all America and statesmanlike on the world stage. (I personally will not vote for any candidate who attacks Joe Biden or any Dem frontrunner. Period. It is soo counterproductive and I’m sick of the “eating our own” meme!)
Experience matters! Yes, prez is on-the-job training. But govt experience MATTERS! Only a few of the thousand Dems in the race have that. The sorting out would be more interesting to watch if it weren’t so darned important!
I don’t have any strong feelings about Beto really and it wouldn’t make me cringe if he is the nominee, but I don’t seen anything strong in his favor. Like Buttigieg, who I think is another under qualified empty suit, he was running on pizzazz and perceived charisma, which evaporates rapidly in the heat of the spotlight. Beto evaporated; the empty Mayor Pete will do so as well. I certainly hope such candidates do so fast enough to leave us with candidates with substance and staying power. Like Buttigieg, Beto has a LOT of work to do before he can go the distance on the national stage.