In the fire hose of news recently you might not have noticed Trump had some economic news I’m sure he wishes had gotten lots more attention. Perhaps he should be glad it didn’t dominate a single news cycle, much less several. A recent report stated that inflation was actually in okay territory. Yes, there were some qualifiers but it gave Trump and Republicans some hope for what is shaping up to be a tough year. It was false hope, whistling past the graveyard and now the gates of the economic graveyard are open wide. Prices are going to go up and consumers will feel it. ‘Bigly.’
It’s seeming like Inflation didn’t get controlled so much as make a strategic retreat. Fall back and regroup, then mount a new attack. Again, Trump is incredibly lucky his attempt to crow about ‘mastering inflation’ was limited. When, in two or three months the full effects of an increase in the rate of inflation sink in with the public there will be less clips of him and other Republicans that can be used against them in political campaign ads. The cold, hard fact is that prices on all manner of things are going to go up and enough that consumers will notice. I’m no economist, but there are certain authorities I pay attention to and so should you.
The Wall Street Journal has quite an article up online. It’s title is The break is over. Companies are jacking up prices again. Ouch! What caught my eye was the bluntness of the words “Jacking up prices again” That folks is both a message to everyone and a warning to Trump and the GOP. For the latter it tells them not to waste time and money on developing ‘Trump has whipped inflation so vote Republican in November’ campaign strategies. Nope, the GOP has real work to do. If they can’t undo a substantial part of the damage the one-two punch of Trump’s tariffs and his BBB which I call his BUFB (big ugly f**king bill) they are screwed.
The linked article lays out a broad generalization of what took place last year. How prices went up because of the tariffs, then down during the fall and are headed up again. Harvard Business School professor Alfred Cavallo tracks daily online prices at major retailers and his data has to be scaring the hell out of Republicans with one foot in the real world. (Yes, such Republicans exist – they’re just too afraid to speak up publicly, much less DO anything) Cavallo says prices on the most affordable imported goods are, as of Feb. 10 UP 2.3% after a dip in November. Retailers, as is the case every year count on the days between Thanksgiving and Christmas to finish the year in the black. Sometimes that means cutting prices and late last year that’s what they did.
It was I supposed nice while it lasted although I didn’t feel any decrease in prices. I’ll bet most others didn’t feel it either. Alas, if prices shooting up held off for a while we can kiss all that goodbye:
Companies from Levi Strauss & Co. to McCormick & Co., among others, say they are raising prices early this year on items from bluejeans and spices to housewares and industrial products.
After holding the line on prices for several months, companies—big and small—have begun a new round of increases, in some cases by high-single-digit percentage points.
Companies had raised prices last year after tariffs hoisted costs. Yet starting in the fall, many firms held off on increases and sometimes offered discounts to capture holiday shoppers.
The pricing break is over. Many companies typically raise prices at the start of the new year. Yet increases appeared to be stronger than normal for January for electronics, appliances and other durable goods, said UBS economist Alan Detmeister.
Some are blaming tariffs. Others are blaming other increased costs like health care. Whatever the reason the Adobe Digital Price Index says we saw the largest January price increase in a dozen years on things from electronics and computers to things like appliances, furniture and bedding. If there was a ‘Prices are now under control party’ during the last couple of months of 2025, that party is over! Ok, so maybe people can put off big ticket items like cars and trucks, or less than big but still higher priced things such as I just mentioned but it’s more granular than that. Even freaking spices, and other common grocery store items are going up. Noticeably.
From corporations, to major companies to small businesses they’ve tried to mitigate price increases as much as they could. However businesses can’t stay in business without making at least a little profit and at some point there’s the moment when they have only two options – increase prices or shut down. It’s that simple. So, a majority of businesses from small to large/huge are increasing prices and by more than a little:
Many businesses have tried to offset tariffs and other inflationary pressures through cost-cutting and by pushing back on suppliers. But some companies said those options alone weren’t enough.
Tariff expenses added $70 million in gross costs last year, and will add another $70 million this year, according to spice maker McCormick & Co.
(***Update: Someone who is not a spokesman but represents Mccormack reached out and asked that this include a note that the WSJ original article has been amended to read ““Tariff expenses added $70 million in gross costs last year, and will add $50 million in incremental costs this year, according to spice maker McCormick & Co.” – In other words the original version of this article was accurate at the time of publication, but new, more accurate information should be included***)
The company raised some prices in September in response to tariffs, inflation in core commodities and higher packaging costs, and it is increasing some more prices this month.
Keep in mind that small business is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy. Also bear in mind they operate on a thinner margin than large businesses. Virtually every one faces that stark choice I mentioned. Close up shop, or raise prices and hope enough customers show up to keep them in business a while longer:
More than half of small business leaders said they planned to increase prices in the next three months, according to a December survey of 600 entrepreneurs by Vistage Worldwide.
Nearly 70% planned increases of 4% to 10%, while another 10% forecast increases of more than 10%, according to the business coaching and peer-advisory firm.
None of this is good for Trump and the GOP. Just as in 2017 and his first term Trump inherited an economy that was on solid ground when he took office again a year ago. Yet while the ‘big picture’ was good there was understandable resentment that those already rich beyond imagination were doing well while regular Americans weren’t sharing in the prosperity. I’ll be the first to say some of that feeling was (and remains) justified. Yet now, as after Trump’s first first year people are realizing they had a better situation with more potential for THEM to finally get a greater share of things than they realized.
Trump’s only significant legislative achievement was to push through a tax cut that favored the rich that undid all the good Biden accomplished. Experts predict his BBB/BUFB will be the only thing he gets done in term two. Between that and his batshit insane theory about tariffs we are headed for far more damage than Trump did the first time. If, as seems likely given what I’ve addressed prices on a large array of items get “jacked up” the only hope Trump will have of not facing a Democratic Congress a year from now is him declaring himself King, or Chancellor or whatever – and the GOP letting him get away with it.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think enough Republicans on Capitol Hill will go along with that. I guess we’ll see.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
The rising cost of groceries is just salt in the wound for some 20 million people who have lost their ACA subsidies and could be facing bankruptcy and death if they get ill. Maybe this is the time to expand Medicaid into Medicaid for All, and bring the US into line with other advance countries who actually look after their citizens.
Make it the rallying call for 2028!