Abortion Will Kill The GOP In 2024. That’s Not A Prediction. It’s In The Numbers

This is starting to piss me off. Did you ever notice that nobody in mainstream media bothers to cover, say, the National Quilting Society’s national convention, yet every time you have a bunch of refried Jesus wheezers get together in a Ramada ballroom, the national media is on it like flies on sh*t.

This time around, it’s the whack-a-doodle Faith and Freedom Coalition. News flash for these simpletons. The Constitution guarantees both your faith and your freedom. It just doesn’t entitle you to force them on everybody else.

But that didn’t stop every lame brain, delusional 2024 GOP presidential candidate from going to DC to bow before the burning bush crowd. Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, and the Miami Mayor dude just trying to get out of town for a while all made appearances. And all of them paid loyal lip service to the overturning of Roe v Wade. And tomorrow Traitor Tot headlines the cattle call.

Brain dead twits. I don’t know whether it was an accident or intentional planning, but the Faith and Freedom Coalition conference is taking place on the weekend that just happens to mark the one-year anniversary of Sleazy Sam Alito writing the opinion that overturned Roe.  And if any of these GOP mental midgets wanted a prayer of winning (pun intended), they would have avoided the Faith and Freedom convention like Ebola.

Because NBC News released the results of a brand-new abortion poll today, on the eve of the SCOTUS ruling. The poll shows that a hard majority of 61% of Americans oppose the Dobbs decision, with only 35% supporting it. But that’s just the appetizer.

A solid majority of African American voters, Hispanic voters, AAPI voters, and independent voters all oppose the ruling. But worse yet for the GOP is the fact that a solid 31% of Republican voters oppose the ruling. See it? Almost as many GOP voters oppose the ruling as the national sentiment that approves of it. Wanna bet how many of those are white suburban women voters the GOP House desperately needs in 2024?

Obviously either the Biden team had an advance peek at NBC’s polling, or has internal polling of its own that matches, since for the last two days, everybody from Jill Biden to Kamala Harris, from Doug Emhoff to Biden himself have held crafted appearances to rile up the troops. Culminating today in a bash featuring all of them to issue the battle cry to the faithful, which was well received.

But here’s what fueled the Democratic intensity to spotlight this event, and what should have the GOP circling the wagons and looking for some solution, any solution to the corner they’ve painted themselves into. because there was one last thing in the NBC News poll that should be sounding a 5-alarm fire bell in the GOP. And if it sounds familiar, it should, since I’ve written about it previously.

The poll asked voters how motivational the issue of abortion rights would be to them when voting in the 2024 election? An overpowering majority of 87% of pro-choice voters were highly or extremely motivated by abortion rights while going to the polls, as opposed to 52% of the anti-abortion crowd who listed that as being a highly motivating factor.

The chickens are coming home to roost. As I’ve written previously, once the far-right bible thumping wingnuts got their abortion bans, they were one and done. Whenever there is serious talk about the GOP voting base, it always breaks down to a single phrase, Single issue voters. Whether it’s immigration, civil rights, gun control, or abortion, the GOP has to juggle balls to get those voters out to the polls, both in the primaries as well as the general election. And with the Dobbs decision the GOP foolishly cost themselves the hard right Evangelical vote. They’re history.

Here’s why this is so critical. With 87% of pro-choice voters being uber motivated by abortion rights in 2024, as opposed to 52% of GOP voters, that’s a 35% enthusiasm gap between the two sides. And 35% can easily take what could be a close swing House district and turn it into a Democratic blowout. Even statewide, good pro-choice voter turnout could alter the trajectory of Senate races.

The Democrats already know that, that’s why there are Democratic candidates nationwide coming out to run in swing or even lean GOP districts on pro-choice platforms. Meanwhile, with the exception of the ultimate Evangelical wingnut, Mike Pence, who demanded today a GOP presidential candidate fealty to a nationwide 15-week abortion ban, nobody else in the GOP field wants to touch that issue with fire tongs. They all know it’s toxic in the general election.

You heard it here. Once again the abortion issue is going to be one of the driving motivators in the 2024 election, and the Democrats are on the right side of the issue. Not only that, but now that some of these far-right wingnut bans are being struck down in the courts, as much as the presidential candidates would like to show that abortion doesn’t exist, the media coverage is going to be on the GOP states defending their insane bans in court. A self-repeating circle. Don’t touch that dial.