When it comes to the (so far) failed coup in Russia we have learned a little more. Little. There’s still plenty, and all of it important that we don’t know but I’ll get to that shortly.
Here’s what we know for sure. Yevgeny Prigozhin led a sizeable chunk of his Wagner forces on a “march” to Moscow. As I’ve written on prior days details, verifiable or even semi-verifiable have been pretty limited, and there remain many more questions than answers. For all that here’s what we are fairly certain we know.
First – Prigozhin is alive but in hiding. I would be too. So would you. Where? No one seems to know, or at least be willing to say. He and some (not many but some) of his Wagner troops made it to Belarus. Which leads me to:
Second – Wagner troops, almost all of them have been offered both amnesty (or maybe, probably “amnesty”) and three options. Go home and rejoin their families (if they have any waiting to welcome them), go to Belarus in some undefined (as yet) status, or join the regular Russian Army. Not a one of these options is a good one.
Going home you can be assured what’s left of Putin’s regime will know exactly where they are. Odds are after a time (probably quite short) they will “disappear.” If lucky simply shot in the back of the head and buried in an unmarked grave. Or before that bullet take a little trip to good ole Lefortovo for a classic old-school (USSR/KGB) “chat.” Belarus? It seems Lukashenko isn’t about to let them congregate on military bases where there are arms and other military equipment. I’d imagine he will want them scattered about, and closely watched by his own security forces. It would also make it easy to do with them what would be done to any who go home in Russia. And joining the Russian Army won’t be any bargain. It’s easy to imagine them being given the “honor” of leading conscripts (with virtually no training) in those “human wave” attacks or manning exposed, forward positions where Ukraine is about to attack. Basically, they are screwed but at least we know the options they can choose on how.
Third – The coup, movement, stunt, whatever you want to call it was it seems actually not aimed at deposing Putin. Just his top two military guys. Prigozhin intended to capture them, in I assume the hopes that Putin would punish them. He could make a damned good case to Putin. Those two and others did it seems blow sunshine up Putin’s a$$ about the ability of the Russian military to take over all of Ukraine. From tanks and heavy trucks to troops all the elements of that attack might have looked good on the parade ground or sitting out on bases but the reality were they were a junker of a used car that had a non-damaged body that was all shined up – and would be lucky to make it a mile from the dealership. Then there’s been the way it’s all unfolded, with Wagner being the only reliable and effective ground forces fighting for Russia.
For all that Putin’s top guys in uniform increasingly demanded Wagner be put under their direct control. (Hey, no one likes being embarrassed and Wagner embarrassed the hell out of them!) It’s not a stretch to think Prigozhin had visions of convincing Putin to clean house and flip things around – Wagner would have control over the Russian Army in Ukraine! Or, at the very least he/Wagner would be clearly made autonomous, AND be able to whenever they wanted grab the pick of the litter of Russian units to take part in various operations under Wagner command. Temporary duty so to speak. And if Wagner was impressed they could leave the Army early and become Wagner forces.(?)
Fourth – the whole thing failed (I still say maybe – that it was only “round one” perhaps) because Prigozhin was forced to launch it a couple of days early. Russia’s FSB got word of what was in the works (as did our own and other western intelligence people) and the people Prigozhin was after had a chance to prepare a response. So, the thinking (by many experts) goes that’s why it failed. This actually ties in with where I’m going to take this from here as I’ve already written about it in previous days.
Let’s step back and look at the whole chessboard. Tensions between Prigozhin/Wagner and the Russian Military command weren’t just bad, they’d boiled over. Wagner got the toughest tasks, not just in the current war in Ukraine but for years in other places too. And they got nothing but a ration of sh!t from the “real” Russian Army. What tore things though was their forces getting attacked by the Russian Army in Ukraine! Add in that while the very top leadership in Moscow, safe and well away from the action had Putin’s ear many down the chain of command, including and especially high ranking Officers didn’t think any more of their top commanders than Prigozhin did. If they were still jealous, they still looked at the losses Russia had suffered due to the incompetence and corruption at the top, looked at Prigozhin/Wagner and gave into “the enemy of my enemy is my friend thinking.”
Keep in mind something I wrote recently, even though few read it. I noted that “Putin’s Chef” had baked three pies – the Kremlin/military food contractor grift pie, the Wagner pie and the less talked about Cyber Warfare pie in which he worked closely with Russia’s GRU. Their military intelligence. And while as Wagner grew and become more lucrative Prigozhin tapered off his involvement with the Cyber stuff he didn’t leave it behind completely. And Wagner maintained those ties to Russian military intelligence which means Prigozhin and his top people were in contact with an awful lot of Russian commanders. You don’t think they got a sense of Russian honchos who preferred to see different people running their armed forces?
There’s ample evidence to support what I’m suggesting. Despite initial reports the coup was “bloodless” there was some fighting between Wagner and regular Russian forces. It’s credibly reported Wagner suffered few losses in troops or equipment. How many Russian were killed is very much an open question. I’ve seen estimates from single digits (now way it was that few) to as high as 700 (also unlikely) but I think anyone placing a bet on 200-300 Russians killed would collect. Plus Russia lost a half dozen tanks, five of their version of HIMARS, and six aircraft (mostly helicopters). Still, the Wagner forces quickly move up towards Moscow and as it was going on there were credible reports of them being waived through checkpoints manned but regular Russian troops! Hmmm.
What should really grab your attention is that Wagner took Rostov without resistance. It’s not just some Russian city. It was (and remains) the major logistical hub for Russian forces in much of Ukraine. As well as the nerve center for command and control. Again, Hmmm. Not only that, Prigozhin and Wagner were greeted as heroes by the citizens. (they’ve be cheered just as much when they departed after they withdrew. Why do I seem to be harping on this?
It means Prigozhin DID have a number of regular Army Russian officers including some high ranking ones on his side!
As the Wagner force moved north from Rostov towards Moscow it’s evident there was panic from Putin on down. Reports that he fled Moscow are unverified but it seems more than a little possible. And Lukashenko offering what he offered to Prigozhin to back off was another sign of panic. Look, from the moment I learned of the “deal” I assumed it would be broken as soon as the worst of the crisis was “over.” Which seems to have in part come to pass. As I said earlier Prigozhin (and presumably any of his top people who accompanied him to Belarus Sat. night) is hiding. For good reason. Don’t be surprised if (assuming he survives) he pops up down in Africa where he’s still got loyal troops. Oh, I forgot to mention the bulk of his guys who’ve fought in Ukraine feel betrayed and many would happily kill him without expecting any reward from Putin. But that’s another topic for another time.
So, as I said we have a (precious) few more details. But still a lot more questions. Some very BIG questions in fact.
Naturally everyone jumps to the “How will all this affect the war in Ukraine?” question. That’s huge. People have spoken and written about it. I’ve been tempted to tackle that one myself. However, something even more fundamental to world geopolitics is on the table:
“What’s going on in Russia? As in can Putin hold on to power, or even his life? It’s clear to any observer including one Vladmir Putin he’s got an Army with a lot of officers including fairly senior ones who no longer have confidence in their top brass – and by extension Putin. When purges have taken place in Russia/the USSR in the past there either weren’t nukes or there was a lot stronger control over their nukes. Many experts doubt the Russian nukes are anywhere close to being “as advertised.” Especially the long-range ones. Whether in silos or on mobile launcher they take a LOT of maintenance. But they don’t have to fly to be dangerous. Parts can be sold off to the highest bidder. Not just the nuclear material itself but circuit boards that could be duplicated or re-engineered, and even targeting software. If Putin loses control of his military and someone both strong and respected doesn’t step up right away… I shudder at the awful possibilities. We and other western countries might be shelling out fortunes to buy them before certain dictators/countries could.
Then, when Putin falls (or dies of natural causes – he does after all have cancer and hasn’t looked well for a long time) there’s the question of who would replace him & how would THAT affect the war in Ukraine and the aftermath including any reshuffling of the existing world order?
Russia is a major player on the world stage due to two essential commodities. We immediately think of oil/natural gas and well we should. If Europe has weaned itself to a significant degree off the Russian energy teat Putin has found ways to get around embargos and sell it elsewhere. Hell, that’s why China which is a historic enemy with Russia has kept an oar or two in the Russian boat. It’s a lot closer than all that oil in the Persian Gulf. The other, too often overlooked crucial commodity is grain. As with energy, Russia has managed with some success to still sell enough to keep itself afloat.
It’s because of these two commodities Russia has been economically a player on the world stage, and even for a while got more or less equal treatment as a G-7 member even though their economy never was large enough to qualify. Ok, so they also have precious minerals, timber and other things within Russia itself (by land mass it’s by far the largest country in the world after all) but their impact on world markets in the areas of energy and food were what caused other countries to make nice with them. Except as with energy, much of the world has learned to make do without Russia. And also keep in mind a big part of what made Prigozhin and his wagner mercenaries so valuable to Putin was their spreading Russian tentacles in Africa. Russia has a long history on that vast continent but Wagner has given Putin/Russia more control and stability.
All that might change when this war in Ukraine is done. Just as so many of our farmers that were ruined by Trump’s China tariffs when China decided to buy elsewhere most of that business is gone for good. Russia might face the same fate. If a peace deal is cut that includes helping Russia rebuild Russia’s nuclear stockpile will be on the negotiating table. That could make things better or worse for the world. Again, exploring all that would take a lot more time so I won’t get into it here.
My point is that when I say the instability in Russia is HUGE and that for either good or bad (or maybe some of both) the long-term implications are HUGE all of us should be paying attention.
One thing that is absolutely clear is that everything concerning this coup to date is completely unclear. Putin does not tolerate betrayal, yet Prigozhin betrayed him in the most egregious manner possible, short of an outright assassination attempt. But he is still walking and breathing as far as we know. It suggests that beyond his military capability he has some kind of hold over Putin, like knowledge of his foreign investments that if revealed would greatly aid western countries in imposing sanctions, or control over a vast stockpile of bullion or diamonds in the Central African Republic that could be used to finance Putin’s war, or possibly the numbers and pass-codes of foreign bank accounts held by Putin or Wagner. For his part, Putin may be holding Prigozhin’s family members as hostages, or may be blocking all travel modalities out of Russia that he could use to escape. This is a mongoose and a pit viper circling one another, each ready to strike the moment the other blinks. It’s anyone’s guess who will first.
If you use the link in the article or go back a day or two you’ll find my article that raises this very point. Prigozhin created the Internet Research Agency and the network of off-site and off-the-books independent contractors in coordination with the GRU. Wagner has maintained some of those connections and we know that the independent contractors in particular took part in a lot more than the trolling & disinformation that is what the IRA became known for. I for one don’t think it’s a big leap to believe Prigozhin had people hacking into into the financials of other oligarchs and even Putin himself. As well as the Russian government’s finances. More than enough to bargain with, especially if he created a dead man’s switch to release it all if something happened to him.