Why Is Prigozhin Still Alive? Let’s Talk About One Of His “Pies”

Yevgeny Prigozhin became famous for being “Putin’s Chef.”  Somehow the former convict got into the right places at the right time and known to Putin.  He got rich beyond dreams with a batch of Kremlin contracts – for food.  Catering not just to Putin but other biggies in Russian government both official and the oligarchs.  But the big one was to feed the Russian military.  Lots of money on that score and you can be sure Putin got a (very) nice cut of the action.  Ho hum.  Government corruption is common, even in democratic countries.  But the big food provider pie that included a generous portion for Putin’s bank account wasn’t the only “pie” Prigozhin would bake.

In addition to the food contract grift pie, Prigozhin was also tasked with baking a Mercenary “pie”, and a third one people don’t think about much.  A Cyber “pie.”

For years Prigozhin denied any connection to Wagner but in Sept. 2022 he went on record as the “Leader of the Band Gang.”  Wagner Group was already notorious worldwide by then, but they’ve turned out to be more than we knew.  Formed as a way to give Putin so-called plausible deniability for Russian military attacks Wagner grew from a force that was instrumental in the Russian takeover of Crimea to much more.  Reports are that when everything hit the fan this past week it was 50k strong.  And the most effective ground military force at Putin’s/Russia’s disposal.  From Crimea, then to Donbas and places far from Russia’s borders like Syria, Libya and down through the African continent Wagner was doing dirty work for Russia.

The thing was, THEY were getting combat experience while the regular Russian army wasn’t.  Wagner’s troops and equipment were ready to go and perform the way Putin expected when the current war in Ukraine began.  The rest of the Russian Army was not as we all know.  Putin’s military leadership was initially embarrassed, and then with good reason fearful.  They do have a habit of suddenly dying, not in combat (although some have) but well away from the battlefield!   That is a factor both in what went down with the coup, and what’s to come.  So Prigozhin’s Mercenary Pie was not only nastier, but far more substantial than Putin ever envisioned.

I wrote yesterday that the coup was over.  Maybe.  Turns out that word might be prophetic.

It’s now two days since the stunning announcement that a deal was brokered to end the coup.  The sparse details from Sat. evening aren’t fleshed out all that much more as I write this.  But we’ve learned a little and there have been developments earlier today.  Including Putin making a TV address and let’s just say if he’s not as angry as he was Sat. morning (our time) he’s still major pi$$ed off.  I already speculated about whether one or both sides will break the “deal” Putin’s puppet dictator in Belarus brokered and indications are that might indeed be the case.

It still however begs the question of “How the HELL is Prigozhin still alive?”  It seems he still is.  Like many including actual experts who know far more than I ever will I figured that long before Prigozhin got to his promised exile in Belarus he’d have been hauled from the vehicle and shot dead.  And video of it would have been put out.  Why on earth would Putin have NOT ordered exactly that?

Well, perhaps that third “Cyber Pie.”  I’ve talked about two Prigozhin “pies” so let’s talk about that third one.

Prigozhin might be in control of a LOT of very damaging information on Putin and countless others.  The entire financial structure including all the hidden dirty/illegal deals of the Russian Federation too!   That’s more than enough to keep him alive, at least for the time being.

Let me backtrack a bit so it will make more sense.  I’ve written the coup in Russia is over, yet qualified it with a “maybe.”  There’s still a lot we don’t know.  It does however seem it’s leader, former head of the Wagner Group (mercenaries for Russia) is still above the ground instead of buried beneath it in an unmarked grave.  If news reports are to be believed he’s alive and more or less well, although for how long has been (and will continue to be) a subject of much speculation.  He’s apparently now in hiding.  (I would be too if I were him!)  But the Wagner Group is a large organization, and he had trusted top leaders who are still back there with the bulk of Wagner Forces.  It would seem getting to them to put bullets in the backs of their heads is a task the Russian Army isn’t up to.   Unleashing a large scale artillery and air assault on their location(s) wouldn’t go over so well either.  Remember, when Wagner occupied Rostov (which if you didn’t know was THE hub for the Russian Army’s Ukraine operations) they were cheered as conquering heroes by the people there.  Cheered just as much when they left.

So, Putin tried enticing them into the regular Russian Army.  While they might be mightily pi$$ed at Prigozhin they feel the same towards the Russian Generals who’ve run the war in Ukraine, and probably Putin too.  And as I’ve written elsewhere including in comments on stories to them, having taken on most of the toughest assignments in the war was one thing – becoming cannon fodder (which is what will happen to any who sign up with the regular Russian Army) is quite another.

So again, what has been holding Putin back?  I think there’s a very real possibility linked to Prigozhin’s role in Russia’s Cyber Warfare capabilities.  If you think back on 2016 and the Mueller investigation the name Internet Research Agency will ring a bell.  That my friends is what, working with Russia’s GRU (military intelligence) he created.  It’s known for being a troll farm, a pervasive and capable one to be sure.  I don’t need to tell  you about the massive disinformation campaign they waged, and have continued to wage.  This is no small group of hackers either.  They fill several decent sized office buildings.  But there have always been indications of more beneath the surface.  Despite all those worker bees filling all those buildings in St. Petersburg there has been a set of “contractors” who worked “independently” off site.  Off the books so to speak.  (Kind of like Wagner)  Sure, hacking was part of the main operation but there was a group not part of the regular gang in the office buildings we know about doing more sophisticated work.  Carrying out an organized and well resourced Russian Cyber Warfare program.

Those are the ones that have given our own and other countries fits.  And sure as hell some of them were recruited and tasked by Prigozhin.  Again I remind you he was working with the GRU all that time.  Well, it turns out Wagner has all along maintained ties with guess who?  Russian Military Intelligence!  Not the field commanders, but the Army spooks.  Seems like Yevgeny never left all that behind.  Now admittedly I’m getting into pure speculation but here goes:

What if in addition to hacking other nations and rich/powerful people in them Prigozhin had some J. Edgar Hoover in him?  And built up a set of files on his own folks.  People in Russia’s formal government (including Putin) and his fellow oligarch pals?  Just in case someday he might need a favor.  Or something to hold over their heads to keep living his despicable life?  What if, he used the part of the IRA that carried out sophisticated hacks into foreign governments, and companies to hack into powerful people in Russia?

What if he had the details on ALL their financial stuff?  Both Russia the country and it’s top leaders (including oligarchs) all the way up to and including Putin?  If so, when he realized that Putin wasn’t going to allow him to march his people into Moscow, and that in fact he was a heartbeat away from full on attack by ground and air from a larger Russian Army force than he and his men could survive he then cut his deal – and revealed why he should be allowed to go into exile instead of an unmarked grave?  Is it all that crazy a proposition for me to put forth?  Think about it before you answer.

Also consider this.  Anyone reading this has instantly thought well, Putin has people from the old KGB that can get out of Prigozhin where every copy of his files is – and destroy them.  Except Prigozhin would have I’m sure (if that’s what his game has been) prepared for such a thing.  He could also have let Putin know there was a so-called “dead man’s trigger” – if he didn’t log in to a computer in just the right way and enter a code only he knew every day, or twice a day or some other time interval ALL that financial information and who knows what else would appear on computer screens of govt. officials around the world!    The money and assets could be seized by countless governments in a heartbeat.  If Russia itself or individuals complain they can laugh and say “Ok.  So sue us!”

We are talking about a vast amount of money.  More than enough even if some governments choose to hang on to what they’ve seized to rebuild Ukraine Marshall Plan style.  And even Russia with some serious conditions attached.  The prospect of losing all that filthy lucre would have Putin and others sh*tting bricks.  They simply can’t abide that happening.

Ok you say, they can get THAT code out of  him.  However Prigozhin knows that if things got to that point he’s dead no matter what.  He’s exactly the type of guy who would have given them a special code – one that would work just long enough for Putin to think he and everyone was safe.  Sure, it would still be encrypted but with stuff Russia had created and could be cracked in a matter of hours by which time Prigozhin would be dead and buried.  Only everyone’s screens would go blank.  Worrisome but not time to panic.  However, while recovering what they had or thought they had another file with all that crippling to Russia and it’s thieving leaders would have gone out!

What I’m saying is that if there is such a scenario Prigozhin can execute if he realizes he’s f**ked he’s exactly the kind of person who will f**k Putin and the rest of them back.

Ok, so it’s just a theory and admittedly might stretch credulity a bit.  But I maintain it’s not as crazy as it sounds.  YOU come up with a better reason to explain why Prigozhin, and for that matter other top leaders of Wagner are still on this side of hell.

In the meantime as of evening (mid evening where I live) it appears that if Putin hoped for a quick absorption of Wagner into the Russian Army and it doesn’t look like it’s happened.  Or will happen.  How it all plays out is something experts are no doubt trying to figure out and I don’t envy those who have to advise our President or the top leaders of our allies, or even dictators like Xi in China what will happen in the hours and days ahead.

But it’s more than a little possible that while the coup seemed to be over 48 hours ago it might well turn out only the opening skirmish is over.  And it will all ramp up again.  Without warning.  Trust me when I tell you the rank & file don’t need Prigozhin to proceed.  They will follow the top few leaders who probably spent more time with them facing actual combat.  If they give the order to resume what stopped on Saturday the Wagner mercenaries will follow it.

I watched Putin’s address and from where I sit he’s afraid of exactly that.  Worse (for him) others can see the same thing I did including others who might decide it’s time Putin was “retired” one way or another.   And it all gets back to why Putin did have Prigozhin killed as soon as he was outside the city limits of Rostov.  Same for his most senior leaders.

Still think I’m crazy on the Cyber angle?  Cash may be “King” but in this day and age information can be even more valuable.