Every time Donald Trump is asked about his dismal, tanking polls he bristles and says one of two things: either the polls are “fake” as he told Chris Wallace, Sunday, about the latest Fox News poll, or they’re not fake, but they’re wrong in all events, because they were wrong in 2016. And Trump ends on the note of, this is just like 2016 and he’s going to repeat his victory. Wrong.
First of all, although Hillary Clinton was the odds-on favorite to win, she was not expected to win in a landslide, nor was she leading by a large percentage in the polls. She had leads in swing states that were, with the exception of Pennsylvania, within the statistical margin of error — plus, nobody at that point knew about Russian troll farms or bots posing as the neighbors. We don’t know what Russia is going to throw at us this election cycle, but at least we know where we were then, statistics wise. Walk down memory lane with Chris Cillizza, The Point:
Trump is today in a far deeper hole in terms of his chances of winning than he was at any point in the 2016 election.
As Inside Elections editor Nathan Gonzales wrote recently:
“After Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016, there’s a temptation to avoid making political projections. But one election result shouldn’t cause us to ignore the data. And right now the preponderance of data points to a great election for Democrats.”
One stat — flagged by 538’s Nathaniel Rakich — makes that point starkly. And it’s this:
At this point in the 2016 race. Clinton had a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the national polling average. Right now, Biden has a 9.1-point average lead over Trump in national polls. […]
The truth of the 2016 election that those numbers make clear is that it never looked like a total blowout for Clinton. Yes, most observers assumed that she would win — myself included — because she had enough leads in enough swing states. But those leads were never huge.
That is simply not the case in 2020 — at least right now. Not only does Biden have a far wider lead over Trump than Clinton did in the national polling average, but he is also ahead by a statistically significant margin in the vast majority of traditional swing states. And polling suggests that Biden is also running close to Trump in longtime Republican strongholds like Texas, Arizona and Georgia.
The Trump campaign has been rattled enough by polling in Georgia to take out a big ad buy there recently. Arizona is by no means in the bag, ask Martha McSally. And the margin in Texas is closer than it’s been in quite some time.
Here’s the bottom line:
- In 2016, Trump was the outsider with all the answers, come to shake things up. Now, he’s the incumbent.
- Hillary Ciinton was a far more polarizing figure than Joe Biden is. In polls where people don’t like either Trump or Biden, they break in favor of Biden.
- Coronavirus was not an issue in 2016;
- Nor was the economy tanked, with 40 million people unemployed, the highest since the Great Depression.
- George Floyd.
Trump’s response to all of this is to demonize Uncle Joe and instigate the politics of fear, while serving up pie in the sky economic forecasts. It’s going to be an interesting three months, until the election of our lifetimes. Of America’s lifetime, actually.
Your story makes me feel better about the election.
Yes, let’s do it!
If they’re having to advertise in places like Texas, they’re way behind.
And, let’s not forget.
The polls were right.
Hilary DID win the popular vote, 48.18% to 46.09% or nearly 4 million votes.
She just didn’t ‘win enough’ in the ‘right’ places.
As Portland proves, we’ve still some ugly days ahead. But the chances of Trump getting any of his lost voters go away with each sunrise, COVID 19 funeral and PR stunt he pulls. One might even say the maladministration’s going to just magically disappear in January.
Woo hoo! I will cheer to that!
Thanks for this article. I truly needed it today!!
Yeah, it feels good, but let’s face it, Putin does NOT like to lose. Neither does his new and may I say, REAL protege, Hitler, oops, I mean Barr. So what if he loses, it’s what he’ll do after to make sure they can’t be removed that scares me. Do they have their own division of the Army who are loyal only to them? Sure I’m paranoid to think Barr is developing his own personal SS, but… Portland, Chicago, cities to come. Oh no, I very MUCH think there are people who have created, and very happy to serve in Barr, Trump, Putin’s SS. And if Trump loses, how do we get those guys out? Bill Maher is proving more prescient every day, in my paranoid head.