Prior to the mess House Republicans treated us to after tossing aside then Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy I’d never heard of Byron Donalds. Neither had most Americans who didn’t live in his Congressional District. There’s no doubt that at the time he possessed both ambition and savvy in allowing him to be offered as a ‘token’ candidate for Speaker as his fellow Republicans had their food fight over which leader would get the nod. He suddenly had national name recognition and has parlayed it into what he presumed would be a coronation as Gov. of Florida. He even secured Trump’s backing! However he now finds himself trailing his likely Democratic opponent. Wow.
As we learn from reporting from Newsweek recent polling shows Donalds trailing Republican turned Democrat David Jolly. If you’re like me you are having flashbacks to dashed hopes of Democrats winning a statewide race in Texas. Florida hasn’t become THAT reliably Red but it’s damned close. Plus, the primary hasn’t been held yet and although Jolly seems best positioned to get the Democratic nomination again I note that despite all the level-headed commentary from him for years now he was in fact once a Florida Republican.
Still, the race seems shaping up to be Donalds vs. Jolly this fall (mercifully DeSantis is being term limited out of office) so naturally polling has been being done on the matchup. Given how a couple of decades ago the Democratic Party ‘leaders’ in Florida rolled over in submission maybe they’ve had enough. So much so that they’ll accept and promote a reformed Republican who has made a credible case he’s seen the proverbial light. Which brings us to the startling news that Jolly is polling ahead of Donalds – and by more than a mere point or two:
The Change Research survey found Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties and entered the race as a Democrat, leading Donalds in a hypothetical general-election matchup.
Jolly has centered his campaign on affordability issues surrounding insurance costs, housing and healthcare, while Donalds has campaigned as a conservative successor who will attempt to enact Trump’s agenda and fight illegal immigration.
According to the poll, Jolly leads Donalds 47 percent to 42 percent and has a slightly larger margin among likely voters with 49 percent compared to 43 percent.
Make a mental note about the info regarding ‘likely voters’ because that’s a gap outside the margin of error. There are two other points to keep in mind in Newsweek’s article:
The poll surveyed 1,273 registered voters of which 1,015 said they will likely vote in the 2026 midterm election. The survey’s margin of error is 2.8 percent.
Also in the poll, Jolly garners 94 percent support from Democrats compared to Donalds’ 77 percent among Republicans.
Could it be that ‘Flor-i-DUH’ is turning back into old timey Florida? It would be interesting to see a major polling outfit conduct one at The Villages, the enormous collection of upscale retirement communities we used to hear a lot about (as in solid GOP support) but only crickets in 2026.
Regarding the Hispanic vote Florida is different than most other states. It’s dominated by people of Cuban ancestry with a generationally taught hatred of Democrats ever since JFK (wisely) cancelled the plan to involve American troops in the Bay of Pigs fiasco. Yet Miami has managed to elect a Democratic mayor so perhaps younger people are, like so many people in so many places (including Red ones) around the country paying less attention to their elder’s ‘Never vote for Democrats because they let Castro stay in power’ teachings and paying attention to issues Jolly is focusing on. And more importantly realizing Donalds, like Trump won’t do much, if anything to help them out.
Well, it’s a long way between now and the midterms and as I noted Florida’s own primary won’t take place until mid-August. Still, it’s something I thought was worth noting. By the way yes, there is polling showing Donalds in the lead, albeit with more undecideds and by much smaller margins that DeSantis won his second term by. Or Trump’s margin in 2024. You can check out the linked article for those details.
 Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
