Ken Paxton is already having a bad week. The prominent lawyer who (successfully – dammit!) defended him in his impeachment trial has quite publicly denounced him. AND announced support for Paxton’s Democratic opponent James Talarico. AND started donating to Talarico’s campaign! Yes, I’d call that a pretty bad start to the week.
Still, everything I just said is true. Houston attorney Dan Cogdell did defend Paxton in his impeachment trial three years ago. Let’s not forget Paxton was impeached by a (historic) vote of 121-23 in the Texas House which means a lot of Republicans voted to get rid of him. Alas, as as the federal level impeachment isn’t conviction followed by removal. The Senate held a trial and just like in Congress a two-thirds vote is required to convict. Cogdell was able to get Paxton off the hook. So he stayed on as AG and parlayed his Trumpiness into and endorsement from Trump to unseat the well-regarded sitting Senator John Cornyn in the primary.
I’m sure there was a lot of smugness when Paxton beat the rap three years ago. Plenty of laughs, even toasts were made over ‘owning the libs’ went on. Now there’s a real question of whether the arrogant Texas GOPers “owned” us liberals after all. Heading into the primary polling had Texans nervous. Talarico polled better than both Cornyn and Paxton. Not by much (and Paxton polled worse) but enough that the primary fight meant they’d have to spend ridiculous sums between it and November after a bruising primary. The establishment in Texas, just like in DC wanted Cornyn. Many (including me) figured that with enough support Cornyn would likely pull off the ‘Lucy yanking away the football from Charlie Brown’ trick again and the seat would stay in Republican hands.
Well, GOPers had their fun. Their party, so to speak. And now with Trump having jumped in and helped Paxton win the nomination the bill is coming due. It’s one helluva bill because Paxton is such a flawed candidate. He’s also all-in on Trump’s immigration crap and that’s going to cost him support he badly needs. Trump doesn’t care but the rest of the GOP is furious over the amount of money they are going to have to spend in Texas to hold soon to be former Senator Cornyn’s seat. It’s money that’s badly needed in other states that need shoring up and not just for Senate races.
Now, according to this article from Mediaite Paxton’s (and the GOP’s) problems have just gotten worse:
Dan Cogdell told NOTUS that he was endorsing Paxton’s general election opponent, state lawmaker James Talarico (D), in a scathing statement, arguing that Paxton “has lost sight of his core mission, which is to represent the people of Texas.”
“And unlike Ken, I believe to my core that James Talarico believes in unity over division and that he knows how to assemble not only Democrats, but Independents and Republicans, and we need that right now,” Cogdell added.
NOTUS noted that Cogdell remained loyal to Paxton up until this past year, having donated $6,500 to Paxton’s campaign last year. He made his first donation to Talarico in March, giving him $1,000.
That last part, the starting to donate to Talarico might get overlooked but it’s important. I doubt it will be the only one from Cogdell and if I’m wrong a thousand bucks is no mere ‘token’ donation. It’s putting a noticeable amount of money where his mouth is. Given how up until last year Cogdell was in Paxton’s corner this is a signal to other Republicans in Texas (perhaps elsewhere?) that Paxton isn’t worth their own time or money. Also, it’s not like Texans in particular can take comfort in having another Senator who is respected and can ‘bring home the bacon’ for their state. THAT was Cornyn with Ted Cruz as the gadfly.
Texas is our second largest state by population. It is one big-ass stick in national affairs. The oil industry of course. NASA. Major military bases. The list goes on. It needs serious and credible people to look out for it in the halls of Congress. Texans could afford the luxury of having Ted Cruz, the undisputed holder of the title of most hated Senator as a means of ‘owning the libs.’ Because they had John Cornyn who actually knew how to do stuff and wanted to actually govern. If you’re like me you didn’t care much for Cornyn’s views but at least he was relatively sane and helped keep the Senate semi-functional.
With Paxton joining Cruz I don’t see Texas having much say in Senate goings on. And, while Cruz has been an embarrassment Paxton will make Cancun Cruz look like a rank amateur. Texas has an ego as big as the state itself is on the map. Being laughed at or worse looked down on and ignored by those with real power isn’t something a lot of Texans including and especially rich and powerful ones will like. They HATE the notion of the state showing even a tiny bit of blueish hue, and fear Trump’s policies might have made it less deeply (and reliably) red but they also know their state won’t have any effective representation in the Senate if Paxton joins Cruz.
Sure, Texas will be looked after by other Republicans but it will be on terms that Republicans from other states see as what’s best not for Texas but for their own state’s interests. Cruz already hurts them and Paxton? Like I said it would be game changing disaster. With the guy who saved Paxton’s career now not just trashing him but openly supporting his opponent we might see other ‘bigly’ folks in Texas start to pile on. They will stick have a lock on the statehouse if they toss Paxton into the Gulf of Mexico.
Sacrificing a Senate seat (and even control of the U.S. Senate) would be a bitter pill to swallow. However I see this as a sign serious people in Texas are ready to accept they are going to have to take their medicine. If, as I think is possible this happens it will be interesting to see what the GOP does at the national level. If this move by Cogdell gets repeated Majority Leader Thune and the RNC will have to choose – pour hundreds of millions of dollars into the effort to elect Paxton? Or cut him loose and try to keep control of the Senate by using resources where there’s a better chance of winning?
Stay tuned because this is going to be fascinating.
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