A Fateful Start to the Year for House Republicans

To begin at the end, Monday the 5th was officially the last day of the First Session of the 119th Congress. It was also officially Marge Greene’s final day, and, in a style contrary to everything we’d come to expect from her, it slipped by so quietly that barely anyone noticed. The Second Session of the 119th Congress wasn’t in session yet, so there was no fiery farewell speech or motions to dislodge the Speaker. With any luck, we’ll never hear from her again.

Marge would not have wanted to be there on Tuesday the 6th, anyway. It’s fair to say the US House Republicans’ approach to their first working week lacked enthusiasm, as though they were still carrying their 2025 hangover into 2026. Nor was it an auspicious beginning, with the first days already dashing New Year’s hopes and wishes against the rocks of an ill-fated reality.

Instead of gaveling in the Second Session in the morning, Speaker Johnson and his Republican conference took most of the day off to attend a retreat, apparently hosted by Dementia Don. Presumably, the affair was organised by the regime puppet masters as a measure to bring House Republicans back into line after alarming indications of some wandering off the path of absolute submission.

The abruptly-scheduled retreat was held in the Kennedy Centre, so the event also served as an occasion for the self-obsessed Dementia Don to appear centre stage in front of the only audience that bothered to turn up after he vandalised the front of the building with his name.

One wonders how his speech – for want of a better word – was received by his congressional underlings. From the media reports, it was even more ragged and unhinged than usual. Siavash Ardalan, a journalist and live translator for BBC Persian TV, posted on X about the challenge of translating the speaker’s “depth of vocabulary, sentiments and intonations” for his audience. 

Other reporters described the performance as involving “weird noises, strange hand gestures, and the infamous Trump dance.” 

But the timing was convenient for party members anxious to avoid observance of the Jan 6 insurrection anniversary. This propensity to delay the business of Congress and hide was not a promising start to their year. It certainly lacked courage, honesty and any sense of duty to the American people.

But the day didn’t proceed as they’d hoped. In addition to Greene’s resignation the day before, they suddenly lost two more members. CA-01 Rep Doug La Malfa passed unexpectedly during surgery, and IN-04 Rep Jim Baird was hospitalised with his wife after a car crash. The second absence is temporary; Rep Baird was released after less than 24 hours in hospital and may rejoin his colleagues as early as next week. Rep La Malfa’s passing, on the other hand, will require a special election* to fill the California vacancy.

*Side note on the CA-01 special election: it will use the current area of CD-1 because it is the people within these district lines who were left without representation when Rep La Malfa passed. California is unable to use the redrawn CD-1 for a one-off election because it would inevitably mean that some people would have two representatives, and some people would have none. California’s redrawn congressional maps will come into effect in toto for the midterm elections.

It should be noted that they did eventually turn up at the Capitol at 6:30pm for a quorum vote. The record shows that there were 406 members present, plus Speaker Johnson. Of the 13 Republicans who are listed as not present, we know only that Jim Baird didn’t make it because of the car crash. It’s likely that the other 12 (and 11 Democrats) just didn’t make it back to DC in time.

By Thursday the 8th, four other Republican names were notably absent. Rep Wesley Hunt (TX-38) was present for a vote on Wednesday, but absent on Tuesday and then again on Thursday. Three were also absent all three days: Reps Michael McCaul (TX-10), Greg Murphy (NC-03) and John Rutherford (FL-05). None of them is listed as being on medical leave or absent for any other reason. This is in contrast to Democrats, all of whom are present and accounted for.

I’ll be watching Roll Call’s records for appearances by the Republican no-shows, especially Reps Michael McCaul and Wesley Hunt, both of Texas. My interest in these two is the early announcements of their decisions not to run for reelection. If there’s any indication of early, pre-midterm resignations, I want to know about it!

Is another vacancy making a difference to the Republicans? Despite the dramatic exclamations of right-wing pundits that Johnson’s majority had now fallen to one, the actual partisan split is 213 Democrats to 217 Republicans for the few days of Rep Baird’s medical leave. As soon as he returns, it will slide back up to 213 to 218.

However, this margin will shrink again and as soon as this month. A special election run-off in TX-18 will finally take place on January 31, eleven months after Rep Sylvester Turner passed away. That will close the gap to 214 to 218.

Less than a week later, NJ-11 will hold their special election primary to replace new Governor Mikie Sherrill. The special election itself will take place on April 16. This should close the gap to 215 to 218, but maybe not for long as there will be two special elections in bright red districts to replace Greene and La Malfa. Can Democrats flip one or both seats? That depends on how much the voters in those districts are feeling the burn of the regime’s callous disconnect with the needs of the people.

There is one final data point that has bearing on the political temperature in the lower chamber. On Thursday, the “Breaking the Gridlock Act” (H.R.1834) was put to a vote. The Bill was sponsored by Democrat James McGovern of Maryland and comprises a bundling together of initiatives focused on critical policy concerns. The package format of H.R.1834 is a legislative strategy used to pass stalled, popular bills by attaching them to a larger package and forcing a vote in the House. 

• Healthcare: Extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits for three years.
• Family Support: Establishes a Federal Task Force to support grandparents raising grandchildren, which will identify and disseminate information on federal resources and best practices to help older relative caregivers meet the needs of the children in their care and maintain their own well-being.
• Disaster Preparedness: Reauthorising the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program to enhance community resilience and earthquake early warning capabilities, improve interagency coordination, and increase funding for various earthquake research, preparedness, and mitigation efforts. 
• Ethics/Transparency: Includes provisions related to small business loans, tax refunds for certain veterans, a nonprofit security grant program, and renaming the STOCK Act after the late Rep Louise Slaughter. 

Keeping in mind that the Democratic tally is 213 and all were present, and that, of the 218 Republicans, 5 were absent, the vote could’ve been locked at 213-213, a considerable irony for a Bill entitled “Breaking the Gridlock Act”. But there was no tie; the vote passed the House 230 –196 because 17 Republicans crossed the political divide to vote with every Democrat.

I set out to do a breakdown of the 17, but nothing notable showed up. They’re fairly evenly located across eleven states, none are in redrawn districts for the midterms, and none have announced retirements or resignations to run for other offices. They will all be facing reelection in the midterms, and they may share concerns about their chances, but this doesn’t set them apart from the 196 who voted against the Bill, since most of them will have similar anxieties.

The reason may not be clear, but the facts are: 17 Republicans broke ranks with the Speaker and the dementor regime to vote with the Democrats. It may be a sign that hairline fractures are beginning to appear, but it’s too early to be certain.

Yet I cannot recall a previous year in which the first week has felt so consequential. But what defines it is not confined to the House. The nation has been rocked by horrendous events, with tremors reverberating around the world. No member of the US House can fail to be affected by what is happening outside their legislative domain, and those volcanic pressures must be amplifying the weightiness of what is happening inside Congress.

So far, it’s the Democrats who are meeting the moment with strength and unity, coming off a year when their party repeatedly overperformed in state and local elections. In contrast, Republicans are shaky and anxious. The foundations of their party are crumbling, and with an unfettered mad power in the White House, for many of them it must feel like they’re standing on uneven ground that could shift in any direction at any moment.

Knowing that they are losing, that they stand to lose it all, must be warring with a terrible reluctance to believe it. But those who throw up mental walls to block out reality will be ultimately overwhelmed by it.

All this in less than a week. Buckle up, Zoomers.

You can follow Michelle at Blue Sky: @michelleelle.bsky.social

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