Even with decades of GOP led dumbing down of Americans which included dropping civics from public education for a long time most Americans know a President can veto legislation. They also Congress can override a veto and the bill becomes law regardless of what a President wants. It’s not easy however. It takes a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate to override a veto and that’s why the final tally on today’s vote in the House to release the Epstein files matter. In addition to all 214 Democrats voting to do so another 76 Republicans have to join in to get to the ‘magic number’ of 290.
Two people in particular will be taking a hard look at the margin by which the bill passes in the House: Trump (of course) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Perhaps AG Pam Bondi too. She’s young enough to have a life and career ahead after Trump is gone and she’s already like a grape in an ever tightening vise. Anyway, it’s a given that by a significant margin the House will vote to release the files. As NPR tells us even Trump has gone ahead and said they should do so. And the Senate too. AND when the bill gets to his desk he’ll sign it:
On Monday, Trump told reporters at the White House that the Senate can take up the bill as well, and that he would sign it if it passes. The measure, if passed, would compel the Justice Department to release all of its files on the convicted sex offender within 30 days.
“I’m all for it,” Trump said from the Oval Office, but maintained it was a “hoax” that he didn’t want to “detract” from his party’s success.
I should note the linked article immediately goes on to explain no “Release the Hounds Files” (come to think of it politically it could be a pack of rabid hounds…) is even needed. As Attorney General Bondi can on her own authority make it all public after redacting names of victims and individuals questioned but found not to have engaged in any wrongdoing or actual crimes. As Lawrence O’Donnell reminded us again last night DOJ officially CLOSED the case a while back. Once SCOTUS had rejected Ghislaine Maxwell’s appeal of her conviction as Epstein’s co-conspirator there was no legal reason not to do so. The last bullshit excuse for withholding the whole sordid mess was gone.
Any other AG, even Bill Barr would have released the damned files whether Trump was ok with it or not but Bondi, despite what the law and norms have held works NOT for the American people but for Trump. Way back, early in her tenure once she started actually reading some of the material on he desk she decided right then and there that there was no way in hell she’d allow any of it to get out. After telling Trump even some of what she saw he no doubt ordered her to cover it all up.
As I opined yesterday Trump’s shouting about releasing the files during the campaign and winding MAGA up to the breaking point was due to miscommunication between himself and former AG Bill Barr. When Barr told Trump (and you know such conversations took place before and after Epstein’s death) that the matter was ‘handled’ BARR meant anything that could implicate Trump or do real political damage had been buried to a degree no one would make the effort to dig it all out and re-connect the dots. Just like he did for Bush 41 with Iran-Contra. However TRUMP took that to mean Barr had actually destroyed evidence, hence all his crowing to MAGAs about releasing the files during the campaign. Trumpty assumed Barr had been a competent Michael Cohen type ‘fixer.’
Trump is barely functional either physically or mentally but he does retain some political savvy and knows he’s in a tough spot. He hates losing, and worse being SEEN losing and he knew the House would vote to release the files. So over the weekend he at least made a pretense of going along. It’s hidden behind a paywall but earlier this morning the NYT published and article saying the House vote will be unanimous. Personally I think that’s a stretch. However, the measure’s main sponsors, Republican Thomas Massie (Kentucky) and Ro Khanna (California) have estimated anywhere from 40 – 100 Republicans will join all 214 Democrats to approve the bill.
By now it seems the latter of those two numbers is more likely. Massie has openly hoped the margin would be ‘veto proof’ and that’s why I’ve laid out the numbers needed. I think getting past the 300 vote threshold would be a powerful thing. Ideally the yes votes will get well past even that. John Thune has been coordinating with Trump ever since the shutdown ended on what to do if Trump couldn’t get one of the four GOPers who signed the discharge petition to back down. Clearly Thune wants to do Trump’s bidding and bottle things up in the Senate. However a veto-proof majority in the House will get the attention of a lot of GOP Senators. Although the GOP has an edge control of the Senate is genuinely up for grabs in the midterms.
So, while I started with talking about a so-called magic number in the House, one in which at least 75 Republicans will have to vote yes to reach let’s look at the Senate. The magic number there is 67, which given the current makeup of the Senate means 14 Senators would have to vote yes to release the files. (All Democrats and the two Independents that caucus with us will do so) However, as I believe is the case in the House politically it would be important to get more than the bare minimum. If at least seventy Senators, or better yet seventy five were to vote to release the files it would do more than force Trump to grudgingly sign the bill. Here’s why:
Yesterday evening the news shows were filled with talk about Bondi being ordered to open investigations into Democrats ‘associated with Epstein.’Â I’d already written Trump had a backup plan which as partially noted above was to say it was all ‘fake news.’ I said we’d also hear him trot out other old hits of his like “HOAX”, and “WITCH HUNT.” But here’s where legal pundits say things are likely to get ugly. Open investigations can, if Trump orders Bondi to do so (and she’ll do whatever he tells her) she’ll go all Susan Collins on us and issue hand-wringing statements about how as much as she’d like to she simply can’t go releasing information that might ‘taint’ ongoing investigations.
It would be complete bullshit of course. As I’ve said until Trump the AG and the DOJ were quasi separate from the President and White House. Yes, a President has authority to set priorities but communication with the AG and DOJ by the President and his WH staff about specific cases/investigations USED to be off limits. In the wake of Watergate some solid protections were put up. Trump of course obliterated them as completely as he did the historic East Wing of the White House. I still say his backup plan will include shouting FAKE NEWS, HOAX and WITCH HUNT through a megaphone but manipulating the system with bogus investigations is just the kind of thing Trump would enjoy doing.
That friends is why the margins of the upcoming votes to release the files matter. Cross your fingers and hope we get the good kind of surprise – upwards of 350 Representatives (dare we hope for four hundred) and not just 75 but 80 or more Senators saying release it all. AND when whatever is released has a ridiculous amount of redactions raise hell to undo all that coverup crap.
One last thought. As I wrote yesterday Bondi is at lease (unlike so many in Trump 2.0) qualified for her job but she’s nowhere in Bill Barr’s league. I still says somewhere, hidden away at DOJ (if not in some secure personal location because he broke the rules and made his own copy) the whole kit and kaboodle. If Bondi plays games which is a distinct possibility what, if anything will he do? We’ll have to wait and see. For now cross your fingers and hope for an OVERWHELMING vote in the House to release the Epstein files.
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