It was quite the weekend for the U.S. Senate. Lot’s of wheeling and dealing with even Trump telling his Senators not to get too crazy.  That means for all his “Fake News” talk he sees the polling on his “Big, Beautiful Bill” and knows it spells trouble. But the wheeling and dealing went on and the FUBBB, the Freaking Ugly Bad Big Bill cleared a procedural hurdle by a 51-49 vote. (FYI I use the actual f-bomb instead of freaking) However, even in the Senate this isn’t a done deal.  Even if something passes the fights in the conference committee with the House over THEIR version would be epic!

In any case, it’s Monday and Friday’s 4th of July deadline for passage looks like it won’t be met. Trump himself has made some ‘oh well, it takes longer’ type statements so even he knows it’s unlikely to reach his desk before the holiday. Today the Senate will be in Vote-O-Rama mode, a series of votes on individual provisions in this monstrosity of a bill combining budget rescissions to pay for budget/debt busting tax cuts for the rich.  As this article from the Associated Press explains different groups of Republicans are at odds with each other. Some think the cuts, especially to Medicaid go too far while others don’t think various cuts to government go far enough!

How tense did things get in the Senate? Trump and Vance were working overtime to get a handful of GOP Senators who were balking back on board. As I said they managed to get through that procedural vote, but already one Senator has said screw it. North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis who’d been catching hell from Trump up and said he won’t run for re-election!  He’s simply not going to vote for this bill. Neither is Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and that means either Murkowski or Collins moving into the NO column means Vance would have to break a tie. If both of them, or one of several others for whatever reason (too much cuts or not enough) throw in the towel it’s all over.

Lots of Red State Republicans with all those huge swaths of areas served by small hospitals that would close are sweating buckets.  The SNAP cuts aren’t going over well in their states either. It’s a big hot mess and even Trump realizes it:

But other Senate Republicans, along with conservatives in the House, are pushing for steeper cuts, particularly to health care, drawing their own unexpected warning from Trump.

“Don’t GO TOO CRAZY!’ THE PRESIDENT POSTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA. “REMEMBER, YOU STILL HAVE TO GET REELCTED.”

Wow. Even Trump is doing some actual thinking. About consequences!  Who’d have thunk it?  If even Trump is worried (probably terrified) of his FUBBB leading to Democrats controlling the House, Senate or both after the 2026 midterms it tells us more than one thing. He’s no longer confident he can foment something that would let him get away with invoking the Insurrection Act, and ‘postponing’ elections. Second and more obvious having Congressional committees armed with subpoena power crawling up his fat white butt for two years means trouble for him (he still thinks he might somehow get to run in 2028) and every Republican in 2028.
Trumpty’s problem is that he’s past the point of no return. He’s invested too much political capital into passing this hunk of junk bill.  It was a giant steaming pile of sh*t when it first dropped and the more that’s learned about it the uglier it gets. TIME is not Trump’s friend in getting this thing passed.  If the July 4 deadline is blown as seems likely the odds will decrease as the summer progresses.
If nothing is passed by the late summer Congressional recess we just might see this thing die a quiet death.  Trump will have to settle for a scaled down rescission package. And a stand-alone tax cut bill. This is actually more in Trumpty’s wheelhouse. His so-called very fine brain has never been any good at multi-tasking.  He CAN probably get small wins by splitting it all up, and then do what he does best – LIE about how ‘bigly huge’ it was!
Anyway, keep in mind that I mentioned what happens IF the Senate manages to pass something this week. Their version is quite different than what passed by a single vote in the House. And plenty of House GOPers have been saying ‘no way’ to what they see going on in the Senate!  Hopefully the good ole boys will have their guns confiscated before heading into rooms to negotiate.  But whatever the conference committee comes up with STILL has to then pass both chambers of Congress!
It’s time to ramp up the pressure all over the country. Tillis’ decision to retire could well have a ripple effect. I can’t remember his name but one House member in a toss-up seat in Ohio has also said ‘enough’ and won’t run next year. How many others in swing districts will follow suit?  And if they get THEIR way how many of the hard core Chip Roy/Rand Paul ‘the cuts aren’t deep enough!’ types will revolt?
So yes, I think Freaking Ugly Bad Big Bill is the proper term for what’s on the table. Only in my case I prefer to be blunt and instead of ‘Freaking’ use the word ‘F**king’ which I think is needed to properly make the point.  In any case lawmakers hoping to steal out of DC early this week to have an extra long July 4 weekend are outa luck. Given what their constituents, even in red states might have to say to them they might not find attending festivities all that much fun regardless!

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